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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:44 am to SystemsGo
Lou will win straight up
Louisville:
-best defense in the nation, solid vs run and pass(5th, 4th respectively)
-4th in sacks(very important since they can get to QB without blitzing)
-D best in allowing 2.3 ypc, best allowing 23% 3rd down conversion, allowing the fewest first down per game,
-also 1st in QBR ranking allowed
-We have FSU coming off emotional win vs ND
-Not just Thursday night home game for LOU, but it's on halloween eve
-Devonta Parker back for LOU, Dyer 100% healthy, Petrino great play caller
-No Kelvin Benjamin to bail out Jameis, FSU RB is not threading, Defense to domination as last year.
Louisville:
-best defense in the nation, solid vs run and pass(5th, 4th respectively)
-4th in sacks(very important since they can get to QB without blitzing)
-D best in allowing 2.3 ypc, best allowing 23% 3rd down conversion, allowing the fewest first down per game,
-also 1st in QBR ranking allowed
-We have FSU coming off emotional win vs ND
-Not just Thursday night home game for LOU, but it's on halloween eve
-Devonta Parker back for LOU, Dyer 100% healthy, Petrino great play caller
-No Kelvin Benjamin to bail out Jameis, FSU RB is not threading, Defense to domination as last year.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:51 am to PeteRose
Louisville has played some terrible offenses, which skews their defensive stats:
Wake - one of the worst offenses in CFB
Clemson - played Clemson without Deshaun Watson, who is essentially their entire team
NC State - NC State was shutout this season by Clemson
Syracuse - meh
Miami - played the U against Brad Kaaya as QB in his first collegiate start
Virginia - pedestrian offensively
Murray St - gave up 21 points to Murray
FIU - average mid-major offense
FSU is light years ahead of any offense Louisville has faced this season.
Wake - one of the worst offenses in CFB
Clemson - played Clemson without Deshaun Watson, who is essentially their entire team
NC State - NC State was shutout this season by Clemson
Syracuse - meh
Miami - played the U against Brad Kaaya as QB in his first collegiate start
Virginia - pedestrian offensively
Murray St - gave up 21 points to Murray
FIU - average mid-major offense
FSU is light years ahead of any offense Louisville has faced this season.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:54 am to Billy Mays
Hardly true.
To date Louisville is the most efficient defense in the nation
To date Louisville is the most efficient defense in the nation
Posted on 10/28/14 at 11:56 am to PeteRose
i also like TCU this week. TCU is only team to be undefeated ATS at 7-0. I'll ride them until they lose.
Also like Texas vs TT. Don't know what the line is. I think either team can be small favorites. I look at TT team and they are very undisciplined i.e, missing tackles, turnovers, stupid penalties. Kingsbury is a deciple of Sumlin and their teams are mirror images...Gimmick offense and no defense. The big thing for TT is that the players seems like they have quit on the season. You can tell by their demeanor. Kingsbury was over his head as a head coach to begin with. One thing to take over a troubled situation and ride the team high for one season and being labeled as "hottest coach" when everything is going well. It's another to be running a successful program.
Also like Texas vs TT. Don't know what the line is. I think either team can be small favorites. I look at TT team and they are very undisciplined i.e, missing tackles, turnovers, stupid penalties. Kingsbury is a deciple of Sumlin and their teams are mirror images...Gimmick offense and no defense. The big thing for TT is that the players seems like they have quit on the season. You can tell by their demeanor. Kingsbury was over his head as a head coach to begin with. One thing to take over a troubled situation and ride the team high for one season and being labeled as "hottest coach" when everything is going well. It's another to be running a successful program.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:02 pm to rocket31
quote:
Hardly true
That they have played against bad offenses relative to the rest of the country?
That is absolutely true. I didn't say they don't play good D.
This post was edited on 10/28/14 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:03 pm to rocket31
This weeks plays:
31-Oct Cincinnati -4.5
1-Nov Connecticut +12.5
1-Nov Syracuse -3.5
1-Nov North Carolina +17
1-Nov Baylor -35
1-Nov Auburn +2.5
1-Nov Texas A&M -32
1-Nov Colorado State -7
Last Week: 6-2
I am 40-26-1 on the year +11.8 units, 60.6%
31-Oct Cincinnati -4.5
1-Nov Connecticut +12.5
1-Nov Syracuse -3.5
1-Nov North Carolina +17
1-Nov Baylor -35
1-Nov Auburn +2.5
1-Nov Texas A&M -32
1-Nov Colorado State -7
Last Week: 6-2
I am 40-26-1 on the year +11.8 units, 60.6%
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:04 pm to Billy Mays
71% on FSU, line down to 3.5, thread loving FSU. 
Anyone with sense, you know what to do
Anyone with sense, you know what to doPosted on 10/28/14 at 12:10 pm to blades8088
There must be some big money or sharp syndicates steaming the line down - it certainly isn't public ticket count.
I can't see it getting to 3 but who the hell knows, it's only Tuesday. 4 points is a huge swing for a high-profile game - I think if you like FSU lock it in now.
I can't see it getting to 3 but who the hell knows, it's only Tuesday. 4 points is a huge swing for a high-profile game - I think if you like FSU lock it in now.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:11 pm to Billy Mays
It's wrong to say that the defensive stats are skewed when they outperform all other defenses who have faced the same teams on their schedule.
And really no team out there is paying elite offenses week after week.
Using the adnvaced numbers Louisville has the 27th ranked schedule in the country
And really no team out there is paying elite offenses week after week.
Using the adnvaced numbers Louisville has the 27th ranked schedule in the country
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:18 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
There must be some big money or sharp syndicates steaming the line down - it certainly isn't public ticket count. I can't see it getting to 3 but who the hell knows, it's only Tuesday. 4 points is a huge swing for a high-profile game - I think if you like FSU lock it in now.
Obviously public money isn't driving the line down this much. I was making a point with FSU being backed by the public,RLM, and most of the thread thinking FSU is pretty much a lock. You know how this goes
Agree that if you have to take FSU this is probably the best # you will get. But it's def the wrong side IMO.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:25 pm to rocket31
You aren't reading my post. I'm ONLY talking about the offenses they've played - as a whole they suck complete arse and I'm 100% correct about that
Offensive yards per play (what pro gamblers use for judging teams) of Louisville's opponents:
Terrible offenses they have played:
Wake - 128 out of 128
FIU - 126 out of 128
Clemson 101 out of 128
Virginia - 75 out of 128
Average offenses they have played:
Syracuse - 64 out of 128
NCSU -60 out of 128
The only decent offense they have played is Miami (7 out of 128) and that was Brad Kaaya's first start in college.
The Louisville defense has literally played the worst of the worst offenses in college football
Offensive yards per play (what pro gamblers use for judging teams) of Louisville's opponents:
Terrible offenses they have played:
Wake - 128 out of 128
FIU - 126 out of 128
Clemson 101 out of 128
Virginia - 75 out of 128
Average offenses they have played:
Syracuse - 64 out of 128
NCSU -60 out of 128
The only decent offense they have played is Miami (7 out of 128) and that was Brad Kaaya's first start in college.
The Louisville defense has literally played the worst of the worst offenses in college football
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:45 pm to Billy Mays
You're making quite the error in using those mundane calculations.
Clemson is 16th most efficient offense
Virginia 38th
Wake 90th
LINK
Clemson is 16th most efficient offense
Virginia 38th
Wake 90th
LINK
Posted on 10/28/14 at 12:46 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
You're forgetting about Utah covering over Oregon State and UCLA covering over Arizona State by about 90.
These were not primetime ESPN Thurs night games. Go back the last 3 years and look at all the road favs playing on ESPN Thurs night and see how successful they have been.
This post was edited on 10/28/14 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 10/28/14 at 1:01 pm to Zipfer2022
locked in the following
auby +2.5
north carolina +17
tcu -5
duke +4
gt -3.5
i think im going to stay away from fsu game, but im gone watch the arkansas line. i may put money on them. at 10.5, i just cant decide.
auby +2.5
north carolina +17
tcu -5
duke +4
gt -3.5
i think im going to stay away from fsu game, but im gone watch the arkansas line. i may put money on them. at 10.5, i just cant decide.
Posted on 10/28/14 at 1:05 pm to Zipfer2022
What does the channel have to do with it? Lololol
Posted on 10/28/14 at 1:23 pm to blades8088
quote:Yep
Obviously public money isn't driving the line down this much. I was making a point with FSU being backed by the public,RLM, and most of the thread thinking FSU is pretty much a lock. You know how this goes
taking the points with Louisville
Posted on 10/28/14 at 1:26 pm to wish i was tebow
Thursday and early Saturday games:
FSU -3.5
East Carolina -7
North Carolina +17
Washington -4
Georgia Tech -3
FSU -3.5
East Carolina -7
North Carolina +17
Washington -4
Georgia Tech -3
Posted on 10/28/14 at 3:04 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
What does the channel have to do with it? Lololol
Kids get more pumped up to play at home on ESPN. More focused week of prep knowing the whole nation will be watching IDK. Don't have time to research the home dogs record ATS on ESPN the last several years but here is a few links to show you I am not making this shite up.
LINK
quote:
The Thursday night home dog factor, or the possibly mythical belief held by some gamblers that you should always side with the underdog on Thursday night games, especially if that game is on ESPN.
LINK
Posted on 10/28/14 at 3:21 pm to Zipfer2022
So kids playing on fox sports on Thursday nights don't care?
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