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Started By
Message
States needed by Dems to hold Senate
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:17 am
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:17 am
Start both at 45 States 10 Tossups *** Bold are Best Chances
Democrats (Need 5)
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D)
Alaska - Begich (D)
Colorado - Udall (D)
Georgia - Open
Iowa - Open
Kansas - Roberts (R)
Kentucky - McConnell (R)
Louisiana - Landrieu (D)
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D)
North Carolina - Hagen (D)
Democrats (Need 5)
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D)
Alaska - Begich (D)
Colorado - Udall (D)
Georgia - Open
Iowa - Open
Kansas - Roberts (R)
Kentucky - McConnell (R)
Louisiana - Landrieu (D)
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D)
North Carolina - Hagen (D)
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 8:18 am
4
Posted on 10/20/14 at 8:43 am to purpngold
quote:
Nate Silver says GOP has 62% chance of winning majority with 52 seats as the most likely scenario and 53 seats as the second most likely scenario.
Nate Silver knows his shite
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:10 am to purpngold
yeah I think the GOP gets the senate back. This would be a very good thing hopefully Obama can make some compromises.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:12 am to catholictigerfan
quote:
hopefully Obama can make some compromises.
No, he will get a bigger pen and phone.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 9:57 am to catholictigerfan
No way. In fact, I wonder if the Dems hope the GOP take the Senate. That way they can demonize them for 2 years to rile up the base for 16, hoping to hold Pres and take Senate again.
Obama and the Dems know they have the press, so they will continue the public thrashing of R's through the media. More D turnout in 16 is their focus.
Obama and the Dems know they have the press, so they will continue the public thrashing of R's through the media. More D turnout in 16 is their focus.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:01 am to ehidal1
I'm just wanting the Reps to win because then Obama will not be able to use the "do-nothing" Congress as an excuse anymore. The shoe will be on his foot. Will be interesting to see how the press spins the do-nothing president.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 10:03 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
I'm just wanting the Reps to win because then Obama will not be able to use the "do-nothing" Congress as an excuse anymore. The shoe will be on his foot. Will be interesting to see how the press spins the do-nothing president.
He's going to veto anything they pass and he will do exactly that. Blame the "do nothing" congress that won't help the economy, won't help women get equal pay, won't put in place common sense gun safety measures in place. You know, his same old bullshite. And guess what? The MSM is going to carry that water full throated going into 2016.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:36 am to purpngold
quote:
Nate Silver says GOP has 62% chance of winning majority with 52 seats as the most likely scenario and 53 seats as the second most likely scenario.
The Iowa Electronic Markets (as valid a predictor as there has been over the last 20 years or so) currently put the Republicans at just under 92% likelihood to take control. See the 3rd graphic near bottom of page
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:40 am to ehidal1
quote:
In fact, I wonder if the Dems hope the GOP take the Senate. That way they can demonize them for 2 years to rile up the base for 16, hoping to hold Pres and take Senate again.
they don't. they want to hang onto the senate. no one wants to lose power. Obama may want it, but he is not the democrats. I can see Hillary wanting it.
But the DNC? Average Democrat on the street? No fricking way
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:49 am to TOKEN
Have to admit, I don't really care and it isn't going to make Amy difference which party controls the Senate.
Nothing is going to change either way.
Nothing is going to change either way.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 11:49 am to TOKEN
Nunn has a pretty good shot at taking Georgia's seat. That'd be a flip.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 12:37 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
Nunn has a pretty good shot at taking Georgia's seat. That'd be a flip.
That would be hard to believe.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 12:40 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Ginsburg will most likely be replaced before the next Pres. takes office. Control of the Senate will be paramount in this and all other judicial appointees.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 12:45 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
Nunn has a pretty good shot at taking Georgia's seat. That'd be a flip.
Georgia is looking iffy for the GOP the last couple of weeks.
They are already 32k over their early vote for 2010.
% of white early vote down 4.1%
7.6% of early vote is new registration(aka Nunn voter)
Best hope for Perdue is a win in the runoff.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 1:52 pm to TN_Tigers
Obnoxious Rightwing crap is not gonna reach Obama's desk even if the Repubs take over the Senate. That crap will be filibustered to death.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 1:58 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Obnoxious Rightwing crap
like?Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:33 pm to TN_Tigers
I'm guessing you know these numbers because you are following it closely, but for other readers, the latest poll on the GA Senate race was conducted October 13 & 14 with 1543 likely voters as the respondent pool.
Nunn - 45.69%
Perdue - 44.72%
Libertarian Amanda Swafford - 6.03%
Undecided - 3.56%
I predicted in another thread that Swafford would come in at 3% on Election day. If that happens, Nunn would need 66% of the remaining Swafford polling group and the Undecideds group to win outright.
With a whopping 63 days between the November election and a Jan. runoff election, the amount of $$$ spent on that campaign would be jawdropping if the GOP holds a 50-49 lead after the Louisiana runoff.
Nunn - 45.69%
Perdue - 44.72%
Libertarian Amanda Swafford - 6.03%
Undecided - 3.56%
I predicted in another thread that Swafford would come in at 3% on Election day. If that happens, Nunn would need 66% of the remaining Swafford polling group and the Undecideds group to win outright.
With a whopping 63 days between the November election and a Jan. runoff election, the amount of $$$ spent on that campaign would be jawdropping if the GOP holds a 50-49 lead after the Louisiana runoff.
Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:36 pm to TOKEN
Are Republicans really getting excited about this? It is a mere 2 year "victory" and then it will be more Dem than ever.
Obama has pretty much made himself a lame duck for the rest of his term anyway so I don't see the huge deal.
I guess common sense dictates that you need to grab as many as you can, but the sense of jubilation I hear seems misguided. There will certainly be a safely Dem Senate seated in January 2017 for whomever the new President is.
Obama has pretty much made himself a lame duck for the rest of his term anyway so I don't see the huge deal.
I guess common sense dictates that you need to grab as many as you can, but the sense of jubilation I hear seems misguided. There will certainly be a safely Dem Senate seated in January 2017 for whomever the new President is.
This post was edited on 10/20/14 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 10/20/14 at 2:53 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
I'm guessing you know these numbers because you are following it closely
Yeah I'm tracking them closely but it is kind of playing with fire. You have to know trends of each state and even then its an educated guess.
In Georgia you can vote early in person or mail. It seems like its about 75/25 in favor of in person so far. Whites are voting more by mail and blacks in person(no party reg ballots for GA so all I go off of is race)
Dems are going after new registrants whereas the GOP is trying to mobilize GOP vote. So the white vote is down and new registrant is up(most likely black) this race is definitely trending Dem.
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