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Finally a Glimmer of Hope in NH Senate Race
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:16 pm
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:16 pm
Prior to today, there had been 32 polls listed on the Real Clear politics website for the NH Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Scott Brown.
The total number of those 32 polls in which Brown led Shaheen was ... 0.
Today, New England College released a poll, dated October 9th, showing Brown leading 48-47.
For perspective, on October 3rd, the same pollster had Shaheen leading 49-46.
It's just one poll out of 33. It may be completely meaningless.
But then again, it might not.
LINK
The total number of those 32 polls in which Brown led Shaheen was ... 0.
Today, New England College released a poll, dated October 9th, showing Brown leading 48-47.
For perspective, on October 3rd, the same pollster had Shaheen leading 49-46.
It's just one poll out of 33. It may be completely meaningless.
But then again, it might not.
LINK
3
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:28 pm to NHTIGER
quote:I don't know much about Shaheen, but I like Brown.
dated October 9th, showing Brown leading 48-47
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:34 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
It's just one poll out of 33. It may be completely meaningless.
a 2 pt swing is well within the margin of error. its meaingless.
But what I would say the race looks to be basically tied based off that poll.
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:35 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I don't know much about Shaheen,
"NH GOP says Jeanne Shaheen votes with Obama 99 percent of the time"
"The New Hampshire Republican Party said that Shaheen votes with Obama 99 percent of the time.
Indeed, in 2013, Shaheen took the same position as the president 99 percent of the time when Obama outlined a clear position, based on analysis by Congressional Quarterly. And overall, her votes have aligned with the president’s wishes 98 percent of the time since she took office.
We should note that it’s fairly common for a senator to vote in support of a president of the same party and in some cases Shaheen has broken from the President. Still, NHGOP’s claim about Shaheen wasn’t far off. If the party had specified it was referring only to votes in 2013, the advertisement would have been right on the money. We rate the claim Mostly True."
By Jim Haddadin on Monday, April 14th, 2014 at 4:30 p.m.
LINK -/
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:41 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
a 2 pt swing is well within the margin of error. its meaingless.
No quarrel with that conclusion.
The significance is that Brown was 0-for-32 prior to this one. Better to have that one lead 3 weeks before Election Day than , say, back in June or July. This same poll also had Shaheen up by 11 points, 51-40, less than 5 weeks ago in a Sept. 10th/11th poll.
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:44 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
The significance is that Brown was 0-for-32 prior to this one. Better to have that one lead 3 weeks before Election Day than , say, back in June or July. This same poll also had Shaheen up by 11 points, 51-40, less than 5 weeks ago in a Sept. 10th/11th poll.
i can't disagree but I would emphasize that this is a glimmer.
Races, especially congressional races, frequently tighten up as the election nears. This is why you see so many attack ads.
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:48 pm to NHTIGER
If Brown somehow wins, it will be a goddamned bloodbath
Posted on 10/14/14 at 6:53 pm to udtiger
its going to be a bloodbath no matter what. I think the Rs end up with 54, maybe 55.
Posted on 10/14/14 at 8:26 pm to Hawkeye95
Tillis finally polled ahead of Hagan this week.
Posted on 10/14/14 at 8:27 pm to Hawkeye95
God, I hope so. Nothing happening for 2 years would be great.
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