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Are we heading towards another 2008 type downturn?

Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:41 pm
Posted by AnonymousTiger
Franklin, TN
Member since Jan 2012
4863 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:41 pm
My 401k is down over 13% year to date. Any advice on how to reallocate my portfolio? Or should I just sit back and relax?
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

sit back and relax
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35341 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:47 pm to
Gah damn, you invest 100% in world funds?
Posted by AnonymousTiger
Franklin, TN
Member since Jan 2012
4863 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:51 pm to
Actually, I am very heavy in international stocks. I'm set up as pretty aggressive now, and it was working up until a couple months ago. Took a dramatic hit to say the least.

Here is my current allocation:

Cash
1%

Bonds
11%

Large-cap stocks
35%

Mid/small-cap stocks
17%

International stocks
36%
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
66997 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:52 pm to
I worry about declining oil prices, but I'm hoping that such declining prices will spur increased demand, keeping prices from falling too far.
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
35341 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:55 pm to
Keep dumping money in all of them. Up it if you can. We could only be so lucky as to see 2009 again
Posted by Coach Guidry
Member since Nov 2007
2333 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

Any advice on how to reallocate my portfolio? Or should I just sit back and relax?


I had a meeting with my Advisor this morning...im down 9%. He said not to worry. He has never steered me wrong before so im sticking with that.
Posted by AnonymousTiger
Franklin, TN
Member since Jan 2012
4863 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 4:10 pm to
Let me know if he changes his mind.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37007 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

Mid/small-cap stocks 17% International stocks 36%


If you are going to be aggressive, you gotta have the stomach to let it ride. Otherwise, you fall in the trap of buying the highs and selling the lows. Which is why most investors trail the index funds.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126940 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

Actually, I am very heavy in international stocks. I'm set up as pretty aggressive now,
Being 'very heavy' in international stocks is NOT being 'pretty aggressive.'

It's called being 'pretty unwise.'

If you want international exposure, buy KO (Coca Cola) or MCD (McDonalds) or APPL (Apple Computer) or any other large, international American company.

A big chunk of their earnings comes from international markets and you don't have to take the currency exchange and political risks that you face with international funds.
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 7:32 pm
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
80087 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 7:37 pm to
I'm hoping for a good slide so I can buy in cheaper and unload some PMs
Posted by AndyJ
Member since Jul 2008
2753 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 8:33 pm to
How the hell is anyone down for the year?
Posted by Golfer
Member since Nov 2005
75052 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 8:35 pm to
I'm down for the quarter but still up 4% for the year.
This post was edited on 10/14/14 at 8:37 pm
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 8:58 pm to
Let it wait two years so I can have more money to invest
Posted by AbsolutTiger
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2006
4796 posts
Posted on 10/14/14 at 9:20 pm to
I'd been up 6-8% most of the year but looked yesterday and I was down 5%. I need to reevaluate.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/15/14 at 6:56 am to
* EXTREMELY little chance of 2008 type downturn.
-the economy was over leveraged very badly and an adjustment had to happen
- a spike in commodity prices (food & fuel) reduced reduced household income dramatically causing default on excess debt
- nothing like the above is going on now, just a normal stock market 'correction'

* stay 100% invested always and you'll beat the market

* virtually everyone would agree you're far too heavy in international and should reallocate. also, I don't know how old you are, but if under 55, you should have nothing in bonds which are overall a bad investment and terrible now due to low rates and inevitability of rate increases which will cause you to lose principal value

most experienced investors who don't have a conflict of interest would STRONGLY suggest you get in a full market ETF and forget about it. you'll beat 70-90% of professional money managers over the long haul.

VSTMX: vanguard total market is an excellent choice with bare minimum expenses and complete diversification.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4579 posts
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:18 am to
quote:

* virtually everyone would agree you're far too heavy in international and should reallocate


false, I like the allocation towards international. As long as he's not within a 5 yr window till retirement.

quote:

most experienced investors who don't have a conflict of interest would STRONGLY suggest you get in a full market ETF and forget about it. you'll beat 70-90% of professional money managers over the long haul


Also, false. As argued before and it's amazing how you STRONGLY suggest this given the fact that your not licensed at all (at least I hope not). Also, he's referring to his 401k which I seriously doubt has the ability to invest in ETF's.
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:37 am to
quote:

false, I like the allocation towards international. As long as he's not within a 5 yr window till retirement.



I hope you're not licensed
International is extremely risky and 36% is far too much for 401k by any measure I've seen. Commodity, dollar, and political risks are extreme in international markets, ESPECIALLY to an inexperienced investor.

quote:

Also, false. As argued before and it's amazing how you STRONGLY suggest this given the fact that your not licensed at all (at least I hope not). Also, he's referring to his 401k which I seriously doubt has the ability to invest in ETF's.



are you a licensed broker or advisor? if yes, what fees do you get for advising him to put 36% in international

btw, which part is false? please be specific and provide factual data.

one of many links showing how expensive bad advise is

Virtually every unbiased (not commission paid) will advise small or inexperienced investors to put their money in a broad market etf or LOW COST broad based mutual fund (if etf's are not available) and forget it. Paying someone a 1% (or other) management fee to find investments that charge even more fees gets beat by the market in 90%+ cases. It's a fact, not my opinion.

I can provide a thousand links with that view, how about you post links to unbiased advisers who advise paying management fees or buying expensive mutual funds to get lower returns (which they do over the long term).

I you've got the facts, post 'em....I already have many times.

and yes, I am amazing...thanks
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 8:47 am
Posted by ZereauxSum
Lot 23E
Member since Nov 2008
10176 posts
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:40 am to
quote:

I'm down for the quarter but still up 4% for the year.


That's exactly where my 401k is.
Posted by vuvuzela
Oregon
Member since Jun 2010
14663 posts
Posted on 10/15/14 at 8:43 am to
Wow, rough morning.

To quote one of the great musicals of our time, "Y'all are brutalizing me"
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