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re: Crude watch: What's going on?
Posted on 10/10/14 at 5:37 am to FelicianaTigerfan
Posted on 10/10/14 at 5:37 am to FelicianaTigerfan
This thread is packed with made up numbers.
2
Posted on 10/10/14 at 6:38 am to TheHiddenFlask
So we can expect you to enlightened us and add to the discussion?
Posted on 10/10/14 at 7:27 am to I Love Bama
Nah. Last time I tried to drop real knowledge on this board someone tried to get me in trouble for disclosing insider info (which I didn't).
Not worth losing my job over a message board.
Not worth losing my job over a message board.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 7:35 am to TheHiddenFlask
No one is dropping hard numbers; just order of magnitude.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 8:20 am to C
quote:
Lee Tillman, chief executive officer of Marathon Oil Corp., told investors last month that the company was potentially sitting on the equivalent of 4.3 billion barrels in its U.S. shale acreage.
quote:
That number was 5.5 times higher than the proved reserves Marathon reported to federal regulators.
quote:
Drillers use bigger forecasts to sell the hydraulic fracturing boom to investors and to persuade lawmakers to lift the 39-year-old ban on crude exports.
quote:
Investors poured $16.3 billion in the first seven months of the year into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds focused on energy companies,
quote:
U.S. oil production surged to a 28-year high in 2014, bolstering the companies’ sales pitch and contributing to a 20 percent drop in American oil prices since the end of June.
LINK
Posted on 10/10/14 at 8:32 am to I Love Bama
Does a dropping ppb of oil affect all the lng projects and expansions in LA? Does it make them more or less economical?
Posted on 10/10/14 at 8:45 am to Creamer
No meaningful effect. The only thing that would affect LNG projects is if domestic prices approach Europe or asian prices. As long as the spread is a few dollars it will be profitable.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 9:15 am to Jarlaxle
quote:
Lee Tillman, chief executive officer of Marathon Oil Corp., told investors last month that the company was potentially sitting on the equivalent of 4.3 billion barrels in its U.S. shale acreage.
quote:
That number was 5.5 times higher than the proved reserves Marathon reported to federal regulators.
People don't understand the difference between proved reserves and reservoir potential.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 9:32 am to cwill
I told yall one of the main reasons oil was going down, because of the strengthening US dollar and it was just ignored for the next 20 post.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 9:56 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
There isn't an oversupply as far as I am concerned.
There is a domestic oversupply as it relates to certain price points. People are throwing around all kinds of numbers in here and I've heard all kinds of numbers, too, for Permian, EF and Bakken economics....I think at 80 you see a few projects go away, at $70 you see a lot rig lay downs in the Perm and at $60 your "oversupply" will evaporate as a lot of exploitation wells will become uneconomic. At the end of the day I think $80 is the right price to spur enough production to meet demand - an equilibrium.
Also, US demand for energy is down and while some predicted a rising international demand (and I agree) it appears to have slowed in the short term.
It should also be noted that the US market is closed...but for NGLs and now condensate the vast majority of our produced oil can't be exported and therefore is subject to a smaller market with a declining energy demand - hence the WTI-Brent spread. Though I'm shocked that the spread is so tight.
Other comments - Saudi oil is very cheap to produce...same for Russia. Russia needs high prices for their economy, not to produce.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 9:57 am to barry
quote:
I told yall one of the main reasons oil was going down, because of the strengthening US dollar and it was just ignored for the next 20 post.
That is a major factor among several.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 10:19 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
This thread is packed with made up numbers
I used those numbers as a basic way to explain to someone without much oil and gas knowledge, who asked the question
quote:
"So nobody has made money selling oil until the last 5 years or so???"
I said that different projects have different break even points and used Tuscaloosa as a real world, current and local example. The exact numbers are beside the point.
This post was edited on 10/10/14 at 10:19 am
Posted on 10/10/14 at 10:20 am to cwill
quote:
People don't understand the difference between proved reserves and reservoir potential.
That seems more like a proved reserves vs. oil in place thing
Posted on 10/10/14 at 10:21 am to C
quote:
That's just flat wrong. Saudi has very very cheap production.
If you are talking just getting it out of the ground, yes, I agree. But I said get out of the ground and refine.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 10:41 am to TheIndulger
quote:
That seems more like a proved reserves vs. oil in place thing
No it's reserves v res potential.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 11:42 am to htownjeep
quote:
If you are talking just getting it out of the ground, yes, I agree. But I said get out of the ground and refine.
I don't think Saudi refining costs are that high, but what does that matter anyhow. They make money exporting unrefined crude.
Saudi has the cheapest oil to extract. They simply need high prices to fund their social welfare and keep the royals in power.
This post was edited on 10/10/14 at 11:45 am
Posted on 10/10/14 at 11:45 am to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
Nah. Last time I tried to drop real knowledge on this board someone tried to get me in trouble for disclosing insider info (which I didn't).
Wow. That's pretty ridiculous.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 11:48 am to barry
quote:
I told yall one of the main reasons oil was going down, because of the strengthening US dollar and it was just ignored for the next 20 post.
It's the biggest reason IMO.
Also, Libya is starting to get many of their fields back on line as well. OPEC members are also in a pissing match over production cut backs as each are afraid of losing market share if they reduce output. Also, the US is no longer taking roughly 400,000 B/D less Nigerian crude and less Venezuelan crude.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 12:08 pm to cwill
quote:
.I think at 80 you see a few projects go away, at $70 you see a lot rig lay downs in the Perm and at $60 your "oversupply" will evaporate as a lot of exploitation wells will become uneconomic. At the end of the day I think $80 is the right price to spur enough production to meet demand - an equilibrium.
Agreed for the land. A lot of the offshore projects shouldn't be effected unless it sits at 80 for a couple years.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 12:22 pm to NOFOX
quote:
I don't think Saudi refining costs are that high
Yeah I don't either. They have huge refining and chemical production areas. Significant expansions happening there too.
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