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Official Week 5 NFL Bet Thread

Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:02 am
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:02 am
The Chiefs got us that sweet, sweet home dog MNF cash last night...

Let's keep it rolling Week 5!

NFL Betting Trends
Posted by jembeurt
Raceland
Member since Apr 2008
8804 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:29 am to
My Saints love cost me from having a good week. Oh well.

These are the lines I'm leaning:
Bills +7.5
Texans +6
Rams +7
Saints -10

ETA: Took off Packers. Added Bills.
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 7:41 pm
Posted by aVatiger
Water
Member since Jan 2006
27967 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:31 am to
quote:

Packers -9


kinda like
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:33 am to
Two of those four are decent.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82010 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:35 am to
quote:

Saints -10.5
quote:

Packers -9


That's a lot of points to lay for divisional games
Posted by jembeurt
Raceland
Member since Apr 2008
8804 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:40 am to
Which two?

And with laying the points, I'm thinking the public will be on the Bucs seeing as they won in Pittsburgh and the Saints got trashed on national TV, yet are a double-digit fav.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82010 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:53 am to
quote:

And with laying the points, I'm thinking the public will be on the Bucs seeing as they won in Pittsburgh and the Saints got trashed on national TV, yet are a double-digit fav.


Typically that's sound logic...but the public won't, all of the sudden, forget that the Saints are a machine at home.
Posted by MillerMan
West U, Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2010
6512 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:09 am to
I will be in the Pats at whatever number
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25270 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:20 am to
quote:

I will be in the Pats at whatever number


Well you are in luck because the game is now a PK, advance line had the Pats laying a FG.

3/4 bets currently coming in on Cinci. I think the sharps will lean towards the Pats, but Cinci is a good team fresh off a bye week.
Posted by jembeurt
Raceland
Member since Apr 2008
8804 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:23 am to
The line is now Saints -10. Is that the sharps betting the Bucs side to drop the line?
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:24 am to
Public will definitely be on Saints at home.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25270 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:25 am to
quote:

Typically that's sound logic...but the public won't, all of the sudden, forget that the Saints are a machine at home.


Agreed - the public will be on the Saints, but not huge.

I typically back the Saints at home, but this is not a great spot for them. A renewed physical team getting healthier (McCoy and Michael Johnson back) coming in that looked good with Glennon. The Saints are likely looking ahead to the bye week and gauntlet of games in Oct/Nov, short of confidence after their arse-kicking.
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:25 am to
Yea, we're seeing early RLM in the Saints-Bucs game. I'm not sure it's a game I'll bet though.
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
37315 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:38 am to
Play the 49ers at home over the Chiefs. No team that covered on Monday night has covered their spread the following Sunday this season yet. I see this trend continuing this week.
Posted by Cole Beer
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
4580 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 8:46 am to
I love Arizona this week. They are coming off their bye, and -7.5 at Denver.
This post was edited on 9/30/14 at 8:48 am
Posted by Louie T
htx
Member since Dec 2006
36300 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 9:07 am to
Too early in the week to worry about RLM. I won't be touching NO or TB unless the line moves all the way to 7 or 13.
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 9:27 am to
I'm guessing it'll end up Bucs +7.5/8 with Saints getting 80% of the wagers.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8419 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 10:53 am to
Already locked in

New England +2 for 2 units
Atlanta +4
San Francisco -6

Others I initially like:

Buffalo
NYJ
Washington
Posted by TigerSaints318
Shreveport
Member since Dec 2009
1794 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 11:07 am to
I'm not quite sure I understand how the Bengals won't handle the Pats?

The Bengals are really good and coming off a bye. I just don't see how Cincy doesn't own the lines of scrimmage.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8419 posts
Posted on 9/30/14 at 11:12 am to
Scheduling spot, public perception, line value are all reasons I like New England.

Above, I forgot to add that I like Indy -3.5 and Chicago +3.
This post was edited on 9/30/14 at 11:16 am
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