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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:59 pm to FT
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:59 pm to FT
No.
Chess is based on setting traps for the opponent and using deceit as to the players' intentions to form a winning strategy, thinking ahead of what your opponent might do or how he might react in a game of war, capture and domination.
It fits perfectly with the Russian mentality.
Have you never played chess? At least chess on a high level, not the pawn-pushing version??
Chess is based on setting traps for the opponent and using deceit as to the players' intentions to form a winning strategy, thinking ahead of what your opponent might do or how he might react in a game of war, capture and domination.
It fits perfectly with the Russian mentality.
Have you never played chess? At least chess on a high level, not the pawn-pushing version??
1
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:02 pm to LSURussian
I have. I'm not very good at it. It's a game that I have to be patient with and that's just not a form of entertainment I enjoy. I would have thought the Russian mentality would have been more similar to mine, to be honest, which is why I think it's odd that they're so into it.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:05 pm to FT
quote:It's nothing like yours.
I would have thought the Russian mentality would have been more similar to mine
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:07 pm to LSURussian
quote:Phew. I feel better already.
It's nothing like yours.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:10 pm to FT
It wasn't necessarily meant as a good thing.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:12 pm to LSURussian
Russia sucks.
I'm not like Russians.
I'm not like Russians.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:21 pm to LSURussian
quote:Player 1: You took hand off of piece after move.
I've seen fights break out in parks over chess matches
Player 2: Nyet. I left finger on piece.
Player 1: I saw you take finger off.
Player 2: I show you THIS FINGER
, Chesspussy! Player 1: I show YOU these FIVE FINGERS in FIST! . . . Chessqueen!
This post was edited on 11/18/14 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:39 pm to NC_Tigah
The one fight I saw up close and personal had to do with Player A accusing Player B of moving one of Player A's pieces while Player A was looking away. Truth.
ETA: I just remembered, it was also the occasion when I learned my first Russian cuss word.....pronounced "chelenosos."
This post was edited on 11/18/14 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:41 pm to LSURussian
quote:I saw two pimps get into it for basically the same reason
The one fight I saw up close and personal had to do with Player A accusing Player B of moving one of Player A's pieces while Player A was looking away.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:44 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on 11/19/14 at 8:19 pm to LSURussian
LINK
The junk status bonds of Supervalu grocery market is now more attractive than the Russian governments newly issued bonds.
The Russian government was only able to sell $10 million equivalent in ruble denominated bonds today (less than 10% of what it wanted to issue but there were no buyers) at a rate of over 10% annually.
Supervalu's bonds paid 7.75% on a $350 million issue.
The junk status bonds of Supervalu grocery market is now more attractive than the Russian governments newly issued bonds.
The Russian government was only able to sell $10 million equivalent in ruble denominated bonds today (less than 10% of what it wanted to issue but there were no buyers) at a rate of over 10% annually.
Supervalu's bonds paid 7.75% on a $350 million issue.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 8:25 pm to LSURussian
Where is Russian CDS trading presently?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 8:47 pm to Big Scrub TX
The most recent Russian sov. debt CDS rate I can find is dated 10/24/14 and the rate rose 8 basis points to 263.86.
Eta: By comparison, the current US 5-year CDS is 17.50.
Eta: By comparison, the current US 5-year CDS is 17.50.
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:54 pm to LSURussian
Reading a book on Putin right now. This quote seems to encapsulate some of what you've said.
quote:
On the outside, Russia is governed by a legal-rational state. It has a system of laws, institutions and a bureaucracy that, at first glance, struggles to govern the country but is abused to such an extent that Russia is in constant danger of becoming a failed state. On second glance, however, it becomes evident that those laws and institutions often simply clash with the reality on the ground. Whatever Russia has, it’s not a failed state because it’s not really collapsing – largely because the more fluid, informal, and often irrational system of patrimonialism kicks in to govern the country.
Posted on 11/20/14 at 7:22 am to PurpleandGold Motown
quote:
it becomes evident that those laws and institutions often simply clash with the reality on the ground.
As my interpreter in Moscow once told me, "The very strict laws of Russia are made tolerable only because that no one obeys them."
So true.....
Posted on 11/20/14 at 10:41 am to LSURussian
quote:
The most recent Russian sov. debt CDS rate I can find is dated 10/24/14 and the rate rose 8 basis points to 263.86. Eta: By comparison, the current US 5-year CDS is 17.50.
263 isn't very scary. By contrast, Venezuela's is over 2000, which implies only about a 35% chance of default over the next 2 years.
Russia's chance of default over the next year - the time period of your prediction - as calculated according to CDS spreads (which now look to be about 300) is less than 5%.
So, am I right to assume that your prediction in the OP can be read as saying the CDS market is off by orders of magnitude? Your prediction appears to be 100% chance of default within 12 months (although your thread title still says 6 months). Global trading markets in such things imply that the chances are 95% lower than your estimation.
Question: how are you attempting to profit from this knowledge of yours and how can the rest of us participate as well? I would love to place a bet on a certainty that is basically being shrugged off by the market.
LINK
Posted on 11/23/14 at 9:56 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 11/23/14 at 10:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
Of all the countries listed in the link you gave Russia is rated the 4th "riskiest" country in the world as determined by CDS.
Only Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine are shown with a higher sovereign debt risk. Everyone knows those countries are in complete chaos financially so being only slightly less risky than them is still very risky.
So I'm not sure how my opinion of Russia's financial condition disagrees all that much from what the CDS is indicating.
To answer your question, I have no interest in profiting from Russia's situation so I can't help you there.
Only Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine are shown with a higher sovereign debt risk. Everyone knows those countries are in complete chaos financially so being only slightly less risky than them is still very risky.
So I'm not sure how my opinion of Russia's financial condition disagrees all that much from what the CDS is indicating.
To answer your question, I have no interest in profiting from Russia's situation so I can't help you there.
Posted on 11/24/14 at 2:21 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Of all the countries listed in the link you gave Russia is rated the 4th "riskiest" country in the world as determined by CDS.
Irrelevant.
quote:
Only Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine are shown with a higher sovereign debt risk. Everyone knows those countries are in complete chaos financially so being only slightly less risky than them is still very risky.
Russia is not "only slightly less risky" - at least not according to the actual global CDS trading markets. Specifically (as of 11-24-14):
Argentina is 4.26 times more likely to default this year.
Venezuela is 3.9 times more likely to default this year.
Ukraine is 3.38 times more likely to default this year.
quote:
So I'm not sure how my opinion of Russia's financial condition disagrees all that much from what the CDS is indicating.
It differs a great deal. What part of it don't you understand? You said 100% chance of Russia defaulting in the next 12 months (you started at 6 months). The global CDS markets - which are traded by some of the most connected international financial institutions in the world - price that exact same risk at 4.2% chance. In other words, you are saying this event of default is almost 24 TIMES AS LIKELY to happen as what the trading markets are saying.
I'm just curious what extra information you have that, say, Goldman Sachs or BNP Paribas does not have?
quote:
I have no interest in profiting from Russia's situation so I can't help you there.
Why not? I see you on the money board all the time and you seem interested in profiting in financial markets. How often are your personal predictions this out of phase with trading markets?
Posted on 11/24/14 at 2:36 pm to Big Scrub TX
Do you believe Russia's sovereign financial condition is transparent to the markets?
Yes or no.
I vote no. Russia's sovereign debt was rated investment grade in 1998 when it defaulted on its debt. I wonder why the markets got that so wrong??
Enron had an AAA rating on its debt on the day it declared bankruptcy.
If you believe Russia is a safe and sound investment then by all means, put your money where your mouth is.
Yes or no.
I vote no. Russia's sovereign debt was rated investment grade in 1998 when it defaulted on its debt. I wonder why the markets got that so wrong??
Enron had an AAA rating on its debt on the day it declared bankruptcy.
If you believe Russia is a safe and sound investment then by all means, put your money where your mouth is.
quote:Investing either for or against Russia's financial condition is speculative, at best. I don't do speculative.
Why not?
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