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Leaving early for the draft question

Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:06 pm
Posted by DlineU
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
1584 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:06 pm
At what point would a college player decide it's worth it to leave their junior year? 3rd round or higher? 5th round or higher? Thoughts?
Posted by LuckyTiger
Someone's Alter
Member since Dec 2008
45161 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:08 pm to
Depends on the player. Some think "Ill get drafted in some round...be it 5th or 6th...good enough for me. Deuces."

Others think about returning to increase their draft stock and getting into that first round for more money. They also take into consideration the strength of the position class in their draft year.
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52210 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:09 pm to
When their coach is incompetent and incapable of change.
Posted by Salmon
On the trails
Member since Feb 2008
83517 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:11 pm to
whenever they want to
Posted by FranMully
New Jersey
Member since Aug 2013
1317 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:11 pm to
I think that after this season Les will be more realistic with the players about leaving and he can hopefully get them to stay
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
43789 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:19 pm to
With the rookie wage scale it's all about getting to the league so that you can get that second contract. The appeal to stay and become a higher draft pick to get more money on the first contract is gone.

That's the reason guys who think they can make a roster leave early.
This post was edited on 9/26/14 at 2:20 pm
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5511 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:22 pm to
Changes in the rules are likely to reduce the number of players declaring early for the draft.

[link=(nfl-draft-evaluation-changes-a-positive-step-in-helping-college-athletes)]NFL Draft Evaluation Changes A Positive Step In Helping College Athletes[/link]

quote:

In the past, the committee has provided one of five assessments. The player:
1.Will be drafted in round one.
2.Will not be drafted higher than the second round.
3.Will not be drafted higher than the fourth round.
4.Will not be drafted higher than the sixth round.
5.Will not be drafted.

Evaluations by the College Advisory Committee (CAC) will now be limited to the following three assessments:
(1) the player will be drafted in the 1st round,
(2) the 2nd round, or
(3) that the player should remain in school.

Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41157 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:22 pm to
For each case I think it would be different, take Anthony Johnson, he went undrafted and still got a 3 year deal for just over $1.5 million.

With an undergraduate degree from LSU, how many years do you think it would take him to earn $1,530,000?
Posted by Geauxgurt
Member since Sep 2013
10441 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:32 pm to
Depends on the position they play. Some will be looking at potential second contracts rather than just the first one. If you aren't going to make it in the top 3 rounds no matter what, then there is no difference between 4th-7th round and undrafted FA.
Posted by rbdallas
Dallas, TX
Member since Nov 2007
10340 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 2:37 pm to
$$$$ signs for the players, their dreams ....and all the BS from some agents make them think they are better than they are.
Posted by SuckThatTigerMD
Member since Aug 2014
31 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:35 pm to
Depends how many kids you have to feed
Posted by Blanky6715
Dallas, TX
Member since Jul 2014
4377 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:42 pm to
Bottom line is school will always be there to go back to, you have to weigh the risk of playing another year in college and having a major injury. See if it is worth it to go to the next level and get paid for it or finish your degree and risk injury. I'm not mad at anyone who leaves early because if I had the talent and the chance I would do it as well.
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
42333 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:43 pm to
I don't know, can you really begrudge Blue for not coming back for a 6th year with all he's been through - he's in the league earning money.

Can you really blame Freak for leaving and wanting to get a paid job, despite not getting drafted he made the Dolphins and is getting game reps.
Posted by DlineU
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
1584 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 3:52 pm to
Thanks for the responses. You're response was the most informative.
Posted by KG5989
Das Boot
Member since Oct 2010
16324 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 4:02 pm to
Whenever the frick they want to

A lot of of people dont like hearing this, but majority of these kids goals are to get to the NFL. Thats it. Sure they wanna win in college as well, not saying they dont. But ultimately, its about getting to the next level for most of them. And, just because you are drafted in the 3rd or 4th round doesnt mean you arent / cant be better than the person that is drafted in the 1st or 2nd in the NFL. That is always happening in the NFL. What if its a player that has had off the field issues but is a 1st or 2nd round talent? They drop him to the 5th round based off what has happened off the field. Every team interprets off the field issues differently. Look at TM for example. Some teams took him completely off their draft board, others dropped him to the 6th or 7th round, some in the 5th, and some still wanted him in the 3rd, which is where he ended up being drafted. All it takes is 1 team to draft you.

And you gotta look at the rookie wage scale in place. Its not about getting that rookie contract. Its about getting that 2nd contract. The best way to do that is to get in the NFL young and healthy and start getting as much experience as you can to help you improve and get that big 2nd contract. 1st and 2nd round contracts are significantly bigger than 3rd round and later contracts. But there isnt that big of a difference in a 3rd round contract and a 6th round contract.

Trai Turner was taken in the 3rd RD #92 overall. He signed a 4yrs $2.79m contract with $539,000 signing bonus and guaranteed money.

Lamin Barrow was taken in the 5th RD #156 overall. He signed a 4yrs $2.41m contract with $191,160signing bonus and guaranteed money.

Alfred Blue was drafted in the 6th RD #181 overall. He signed a 4yrs $2.37m contract with $117,932signing bonus and guaranteed money.

Not that big of a difference between a 3rd round contract and a 6th round contract when you look at the big picture. Might as well go a year earlier and be taken in the 5th or 6th rather than stay in college another year. Sure they could move up a round or 2, but they also have just as good a chance of hurting their stock as they do improving it. And you risk the injury factor as well by returning to school. Is it worth the risk for just moving up a round or 2? And rarely does someone go from a 6th pick to a 1st round pick a year later. They could move up from a 6th round to a late 3rd or 4th round pick. And a 3rd round player could move up to the 2nd or late 1st. But rarely does someone go from a 6th-7th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick.
Posted by UL-SabanRival
Member since May 2013
4651 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 4:04 pm to
If it's a running back, they should leave after three years if they think they have a chance in hell of being drafted at all.
Posted by tenderfoot tigah
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2004
10382 posts
Posted on 9/26/14 at 5:51 pm to
I agree with Nick Saban. 1st round go to draft. Any other round come back to college.
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