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Started By
Message
Predictability of LSU on Offense since 2008 - Why the box is stacked
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:22 pm
We have all seen opposing defenses stack the box on first down against Les Miles since 2008. Why is this...simple, because we are exceedingly more likely to run than pass.
That trend and a statistically same slope ocurs on second down. The only time this trend changes is on third down.
You would expect this to be true if we were running the ball well over this time. Funny enough, however, the yardages tell a different story:
That since 2008, our rush yds per play have been decreasing quite significantly relative to our pass yds per ATTEMPT.
CONCLUSION: Teams know we are going to run, they dare us to throw, and stack the box. When we do pass we complete for more yardage due to a stacked box. However, every year Miles doubles down and runs even more relative to the pass.
That trend and a statistically same slope ocurs on second down. The only time this trend changes is on third down.
You would expect this to be true if we were running the ball well over this time. Funny enough, however, the yardages tell a different story:
That since 2008, our rush yds per play have been decreasing quite significantly relative to our pass yds per ATTEMPT.
CONCLUSION: Teams know we are going to run, they dare us to throw, and stack the box. When we do pass we complete for more yardage due to a stacked box. However, every year Miles doubles down and runs even more relative to the pass.
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 11:38 pm
25
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:29 pm to CptBengal
It is truly maddening.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:30 pm to CptBengal
Strong analytical work.
Have an upvote.
Have an upvote.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:35 pm to CptBengal
Exactly. I wish our coaches would have the common sense to adjust when it is clear this strategy is not working. I just don't understand how it can be that hard. 
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:45 pm to LSUexile
Ballscaster is going to hijack your thread and argue stats with you for the next 48 hours.
Box is stacked because everyone knows Les wants to run up the middle. Every year since 08 its been our main scheme. We have a tell on offense. When FB waves his hand behind his butt at the RB - its usually a run. A LB or stunting CB doesn't have to be a genius to pick up on that.
Box is stacked because everyone knows Les wants to run up the middle. Every year since 08 its been our main scheme. We have a tell on offense. When FB waves his hand behind his butt at the RB - its usually a run. A LB or stunting CB doesn't have to be a genius to pick up on that.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:47 pm to LSUexile
quote:
I wish our coaches would have the common sense to adjust when it is clear this strategy is not working.
It's worse than just not working.
We are predictable. If I had access to play by play data I could set up a logistic relationship and predict, based on where on the field, the down, the quarter, and the score...with a high degree of accuracy EXACTLY what Miles plans to do with the offense.
In fact, such data is routinely purchased by teams and is available from clearinghouses. Being predictable is really bad...especially when you double down on that predictability.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:48 pm to Katy Tiger
quote:
Ballscaster is going to hijack your thread and argue stats with you for the next 48 hours.
He cant. He isnt capable.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 10:52 pm to CptBengal
Great work. I don't understand it. I guess I'll hope he tweaks the offense. Keyword: hope.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:00 pm to CptBengal
I don't really have time to get into it, but I'm coming to different conclusions than you are. First chart looks to have a ton of variance, I'm interested what the st. devs are. Pretty easy to tell which years we had above average QB play. Also, why not go back to 05'?
Also, the second chart can be wildly skewed by the long ball. Really should just remove passing and show the trend of ypc.
Also, the second chart can be wildly skewed by the long ball. Really should just remove passing and show the trend of ypc.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:04 pm to CptBengal
quote:So what down would LSU be most likely to pass on this year?
We are predictable.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:15 pm to Mayhawman
You blew it, the balls been snapped long ago.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:19 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:
First chart looks to have a ton of variance,
It does. Sadly I dont have access to every data point (i.e., every game) or I could make the model alot better.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:20 pm to CptBengal
Where did this data come from, if not a play by play breakdown?
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:22 pm to MOT
season by season.
Play by play would literally be a record for every play for every game. Gotta pay to get that.
Even data for each game would be cool to have and then handle that, it would certainly make the model better
Play by play would literally be a record for every play for every game. Gotta pay to get that.
Even data for each game would be cool to have and then handle that, it would certainly make the model better
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:28 pm to CptBengal
why does the Y axis in the first chart appear to not have a linear scale?
Example distance between 0 and 0.57 is miniscule while the distance between 0.57 and 1 is much larger.
Similarly the distance from 2.09 to 2.55 is large while 2.55 to 3.09 is very small.
This visually skews the already extremely variable data points
Example distance between 0 and 0.57 is miniscule while the distance between 0.57 and 1 is much larger.
Similarly the distance from 2.09 to 2.55 is large while 2.55 to 3.09 is very small.
This visually skews the already extremely variable data points
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:31 pm to CptBengal
Is that from a stats site or is it somewhere on LSU's stats page?
But yeah, data with all of the other variables...time of game, field position, situation/score, opponent, weather, etc would be cool to see.
But yeah, data with all of the other variables...time of game, field position, situation/score, opponent, weather, etc would be cool to see.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:32 pm to CptBengal
quote:
Play by play would literally be a record for every play for every game. Gotta pay to get that.
Here ya go and it is for free. I will get you started with the most recent game.
MSU LSU play by play
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:35 pm to CptBengal
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/11/21 at 1:05 am
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:35 pm to Bleeding purple
every game for every season...enjoy collating that. I dont plan on doing it. ETA: and ESPN has a no spider policy
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:40 pm to CptBengal
quote:
We have all seen opposing defenses stack the box on first down against Les Miles since 2008. Why is this...simple, because we are exceedingly more likely to run than pass.
quote:So it should be easy to know which down LSU is most likely to pass on this year based on results of your study?
Being predictable is really bad...especially when you double down on that predictability.
So make the call. The officials are getting restless
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