Question for any gamblers that I can't figure out and twisting my brain over. Say a line comes out Monday where Team A is -17 over Team B. Lets say by Thursday, the line has moved to -15.5.

1. In this situation, I take it money has been coming in hard for Team B and Vegas is wanting you to take Team A on Thursday, correct?

2. If that's the case, is it smarter to go with Vegas new line and take the bait at -15.5 or is Vegas conceding that the original line and money is probably the better bet and they're moving the line is trying to recuperate losses from opening days bets?

3. Whats the better bet given no bias toward either team on Thursday?

Hope this makes sense.

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Posted by tigerfan182

Franklin, Tn

Member since Sep 2009

2779 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:38 pm to Gamecox20

If you are seriously asking these questions, do yourself a favor and don't bet.

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Posted by SirWinston

PNW

Member since Jul 2014

81144 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:39 pm to Gamecox20

Could be early money that moved the line or it could be injury news.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs moved towards the Bucs strictly because of cam Newton's ribs.

Green Bay at Seattle moved toward Seattle because of early money

This post was edited on 9/3/14 at 2:40 pm

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Posted by Gamecox20

Baton Rouge, LA

Member since Oct 2011

2046 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:41 pm to SirWinston

In general though, given that Team A was giving away 17 points before and now is only giving away 15.5 is that the better bet given everything else staying the same like injury situations, etc.?

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Posted by Boudreaux35

Member since Sep 2007

21397 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:44 pm to Gamecox20

Most Vegas line moves are due to "smart money" coming in. The guys who run the books and set the lines know who the guys are that have information and if someone connected with them drops a large wager, they will typically move it. Most Vegas books have enough volume to balance the sides without having to move lines. Smaller betting organizations have to try and balance each side so a line move from one of may njot be actually related to the actual predicted point spread for the game. It may be more of an enticement to bet the other side.

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Posted by LSU-MNCBABY

Knightsgate

Member since Jan 2004

24327 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:44 pm to Gamecox20

quote:
If you are seriously asking these questions, do yourself a favor and don't bet.

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Posted by Topwater Trout

Red Stick

Member since Oct 2010

67589 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:45 pm to Gamecox20

quote:
I take it money has been coming in hard for Team B and Vegas is wanting you to take Team A on Thursday, correct?

Vegas doesn't give a shite who you take...that is why the line is adjusted.

quote:
If that's the case, is it smarter to go with Vegas new line and take the bait at -15.5 or is Vegas conceding that the original line and money is probably the better bet and they're moving the line is trying to recuperate losses from opening days bets?

if you were going with the favorite its better to get them at -15.5 than -17 and vice versa

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Posted by burdman

Louisiana

Member since Aug 2007

20685 posts

Posted on 9/3/14 at 2:48 pm to Gamecox20

It's about balancing the money, for lack of a better term.

In you scenario a lot of money came in on Team B at +17.

ETA: not the only reason it would move, but a common one

This post was edited on 9/3/14 at 2:53 pm

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Posted by TheFranchise