Help me out with lure choice

Black/blue senko.

Very true on that topwater action. Given the weather and that you are pond fishing, you should absolutely destroy them today, like "catch them on a bare hook" destroy them.

Senkos and flukes typically produce for me in ponds.

All choices are great IMO. I usually downsize any baits I throw in a pond as well. Just my .02

Watermelon Red Baby Brush Hog or a Senko would have my vote.

I upsize baits in small ponds when weather is good and go with topwater/sub surface.



I would through a big black ribbon tail worm or snake and pull it with steady swim on top or partially under. Either that or a full size Zara Spoke with a steady wide walk the dog motion. Make two laps of the pond and if no takers then down size.