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NBA Draft Lottery Reform Proposed
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:22 pm
Silver really is moving to put his stamp on the league.
LINK /
First, there's no way they can change the system as early as next season, there are too many protected picks in play to change the rules now, because in this system Top 6 Protection is the new Top 3 Protection.
Second, the lottery doesn't need to be reformed, it needs to be reduced. Bottom 6 teams are always going to suck anyway so they get the lottery for the bottom 6 picks. The remaining 8 "lottery" teams have a play in tournament for the bottom seeds in the playoffs. Sucky teams still suck, borderline teams have the playoffs as motivation to not suck on purpose.
quote:
The proposal, which dominated the lottery-reform discussion in league meetings this week, is essentially an attempt to squeeze the lottery odds at either extreme toward a more balanced system in which all 14 teams have a relatively similar chance at the no. 1 pick, per sources familiar with the proposal.
Under the current system, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of snagging the no. 1 pick, perhaps the most valuable asset in the entire NBA. The team with the second-worst record has a 19.9 percent chance of winning the no. 1 pick, and the third-worst team enters the lottery with a 15.6 percent chance of moving up to the top slot. The odds decline from there, with the final five teams in the lottery — the teams with the five best records — each having a 1.1 percent or worse chance of moving up to no. 1.
The league’s proposal gives at least the four worst teams the same chance at winning the no. 1 pick: approximately an identical 11 percent shot for each club. The odds decline slowly from there, with the team in the next spot holding a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record will have a 2 percent chance of leaping to the no. 1 pick, up from the the minuscule 0.5 percent chance it has under the current system.
The proposal also calls for the drawing of the first six picks via the Ping-Pong ball lottery, sources say. The current lottery system actually involves the drawing of only the top three selections. The rest of the lottery goes in order of record, from worst to best, after the top-three drawing is over.
The league could implement lottery reform as early as next season, though there are many hurdles to overcome before then. And it’s important to note that the league has kicked around several different proposals with varying weights; the 11 percent figure for the first teams is not universal among those proposals, sources say.
LINK /
First, there's no way they can change the system as early as next season, there are too many protected picks in play to change the rules now, because in this system Top 6 Protection is the new Top 3 Protection.
Second, the lottery doesn't need to be reformed, it needs to be reduced. Bottom 6 teams are always going to suck anyway so they get the lottery for the bottom 6 picks. The remaining 8 "lottery" teams have a play in tournament for the bottom seeds in the playoffs. Sucky teams still suck, borderline teams have the playoffs as motivation to not suck on purpose.
3
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:25 pm to TigerinATL
I like that idea much better than the wheel idea, though the wheel idea is really the only way to fully prevent tanking.
Not sure how I feel about another postseason tournament though.
Not sure how I feel about another postseason tournament though.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:32 pm to Cap Crunch
The wheel prevents tanking, but some teams are just down right bad.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:35 pm to Cap Crunch
wheel idea is so dumb
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:36 pm to Cap Crunch
Is the wheel idea the one where its a 30 year cycle and each team gets a #1 pick during a cycle?
This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:39 pm to JohnZeroQ
yes
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:43 pm to JohnZeroQ
Yes. That was a terrible idea. I think the whole tanking issue is overblown.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:46 pm to TigerinATL
I'm not sure this is such a big issue.
That said I like the Box Score Geeks auction draft idea
And Ziller's lottery reforms
They're thinking of doing a in seasons tournament in Vegas. Not play in, but like an FA Cup. Perhaps that morphs into Simmons entertaining as hell tourney.
LINK
That said I like the Box Score Geeks auction draft idea
And Ziller's lottery reforms
quote:
Deflate the odds at the top of the lottery, determine more picks in the hopper and include every team in the derby.
quote:
have a play in tournament for the bottom seeds in the playoffs.
They're thinking of doing a in seasons tournament in Vegas. Not play in, but like an FA Cup. Perhaps that morphs into Simmons entertaining as hell tourney.
LINK
quote:
"One of the things that I didn't mention before that the competition committee talked about and seemed excited about is potentially some sort of mid season tournament," Silver said. "Very early days in the discussion of that, but we're looking at other opportunities in the league to create excitement.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:47 pm to quail man
I saw one idea that made more sense. Put teams into pods (divisions would work fine) and rotate those 5 groups thought the draft, each with an individual lottery to determine order. That way you have a top 5 pick every 6 years instead of every 30
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:48 pm to corndeaux
quote:
"One of the things that I didn't mention before that the competition committee talked about and seemed excited about is potentially some sort of mid season tournament," Silver said. "Very early days in the discussion of that, but we're looking at other opportunities in the league to create excitement.
the product is rapidly growing and they want to change it? fricking absurd. mid season tournament? for what?
if you want to do a tournament, do it at the beginning of the season and see if you can compete with football in the october/november months.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 3:54 pm to quail man
You've already got a 6 week postseason tournament, I don't see the need for another tournament
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:15 pm to quail man
quote:
if you want to do a tournament, do it at the beginning of the season and see if you can compete with football in the october/november months.
This. I actually don't mind the idea of a tourney to kick off the start of the season. But in the middle of the year? frick that noise. The nbaPA wouldn't allow that anyways.
This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:18 pm to quail man
Just a thought for the tournament Silver wants to do.
What if during the summer or before the start of the season certain NBA teams (non-playoff) played in a tournament against the champions of leagues from different countries?
Just a thought that I've put about 2 minutes of thinking into
Feel free to tell me why it's a terrible idea.
ETA: Maybe the bottom 4 or 5 (just throwing a # out there) NBA teams go into it and whichever NBA team advance the furthest gets the #1 pick.
And yes, it's 4:30, I'm counting down til 5 and am putting way too much thought into this
What if during the summer or before the start of the season certain NBA teams (non-playoff) played in a tournament against the champions of leagues from different countries?
Just a thought that I've put about 2 minutes of thinking into
Feel free to tell me why it's a terrible idea.
ETA: Maybe the bottom 4 or 5 (just throwing a # out there) NBA teams go into it and whichever NBA team advance the furthest gets the #1 pick.
And yes, it's 4:30, I'm counting down til 5 and am putting way too much thought into this
This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:30 pm to burdman
quote:
Just a thought for the tournament Silver wants to do.
What if during the summer or before the start of the season certain NBA teams (non-playoff) played in a tournament against the champions of leagues from different countries?
Just a thought that I've put about 2 minutes of thinking into
Feel free to tell me why it's a terrible idea.
Because the toll of 82 games + playoffs is a lot for a player to bear already.
From October to April - everyone plays
April to May/June - playoffs
June to September - 'rest'
Adding a tournament/more games = less rest
Remember those players playing in the Olympic/World Championship and how tired they were through the season? Remember how Yao Ming had to play basketball year round without much rest?
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:35 pm to htran90
I agree that it isn't going to happen, but just for arguments sake.
Teams in this tournament won't be playoff teams and it will be single elimination
That's all I got
quote:
Because the toll of 82 games + playoffs
Teams in this tournament won't be playoff teams and it will be single elimination
That's all I got
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:36 pm to htran90
quote:
Because the toll of 82 games + playoffs is a lot for a player to bear already.
From October to April - everyone plays
April to May/June - playoffs
June to September - 'rest'
Adding a tournament/more games = less rest
It's completely ridiculous. I think Silver is stealing a page from Goodell and this is the NBA's version of the 18 game schedule. "What you don't want to play more games? I guess we'll just have to keep all this new TV money to ourselves, in fact you should give us some of yours back for not being a team player. Why can't you think of the fans more?"
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:46 pm to TigerinATL
Who is more powerful, the NBAPA or NFLPA?
I want to say the former, but am not totally sure
I want to say the former, but am not totally sure
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:46 pm to quail man
quote:
the product is rapidly growing and they want to change it? fricking absurd. mid season tournament? for what?
It can make some sense for both owners and players. You can shorten the season and give the players a break while making the lost money and then some back by selling tv rights to this.
quote:
do it at the beginning of the season and see if you can compete with football in the october/november months.
They can't. Would be a waste. Adding this in the post NFL, pre MLB lull when the regular season starts to drag could work.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 4:52 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
I think Silver is stealing a page from Goodell and this is the NBA's version of the 18 game schedule. "What you don't want to play more games? I guess we'll just have to keep all this new TV money to ourselves, in fact you should give us some of yours back for not being a team player. Why can't you think of the fans more?"
We've flipped on owners/players for once. I don't think Silver has any intention of adding this w/o reducing the number of regular season games. The schedule is one the biggest non $$ player complaints. This solution helps owners recoup lost revenue and can give the players a break.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 5:04 pm to TigerinATL
I wouldnt mind them having some sort of a "warm up tourney" a few weeks before the season starts or whatever. Instead of having the last week of mini camp / preseason games, just make it a tourney for certain teams that missed the playoffs the previous season. They still have time to rest before the season starts like everyone else, and some teams could benefit from that. Especially teams that are very young and need some mroe experience. And its the coaches decision on who plays and who doesnt play.
Thats pretty much the only way I would I wouldnt mind having a tourney for the NBA. Anytime during the regular season would not work and would piss off the NBPA. I would be pissed as well.
What about having some sort of post season tourney for the teams that missed the playoffs? And how you play in that tourney effects you in the draft somehow. It would be single eliminaiton. But each game you win increases your odds in the lottery? Not a lot. But just enough to make teams play hard. 14 team tourney, with the 2 teams with the worst records getting byes in the 1st round. You would have to win 5 games to win it all, so lets say each win is worth 0.6% increase.
And even if a team that narely missed the playoffs like Phoenix did ends up winning the tourney, it wouldnt make them jump from the worst odds to the best odds. It would help them jump from the worst odds to better odds though. I think the team with the smallest odds has a 0.5% chance of getting the top pick. So winning the tourney would only give them like a 3.5% chance of winning the lottery. So its not like you go from worst to first. But jumping from 0.5% to 3.5% is nice and most likely would improve youre draft spot a spot or 2. However, if you have a team that are in the top 3 odds of winning the lottery, it would be huge for them to win the tourney and increasing their odds by 3% or so.
So it helps improve your odds in the lottery which would possibly improve your draft spot. It wouldnt help you go from worst odds to the best odds by winning the tourney, but it still would improve your odds just enough, and possibly improve your draft spot a few spots.
And im just using 3% as an example or whatever. Im not sure which % would be the best or whatever, but it would need to be more than just 1%, but no more than a 5% increase in odds.
Im bored and just spitballing right now thoughts?
Thats pretty much the only way I would I wouldnt mind having a tourney for the NBA. Anytime during the regular season would not work and would piss off the NBPA. I would be pissed as well.
What about having some sort of post season tourney for the teams that missed the playoffs? And how you play in that tourney effects you in the draft somehow. It would be single eliminaiton. But each game you win increases your odds in the lottery? Not a lot. But just enough to make teams play hard. 14 team tourney, with the 2 teams with the worst records getting byes in the 1st round. You would have to win 5 games to win it all, so lets say each win is worth 0.6% increase.
And even if a team that narely missed the playoffs like Phoenix did ends up winning the tourney, it wouldnt make them jump from the worst odds to the best odds. It would help them jump from the worst odds to better odds though. I think the team with the smallest odds has a 0.5% chance of getting the top pick. So winning the tourney would only give them like a 3.5% chance of winning the lottery. So its not like you go from worst to first. But jumping from 0.5% to 3.5% is nice and most likely would improve youre draft spot a spot or 2. However, if you have a team that are in the top 3 odds of winning the lottery, it would be huge for them to win the tourney and increasing their odds by 3% or so.
So it helps improve your odds in the lottery which would possibly improve your draft spot. It wouldnt help you go from worst odds to the best odds by winning the tourney, but it still would improve your odds just enough, and possibly improve your draft spot a few spots.
And im just using 3% as an example or whatever. Im not sure which % would be the best or whatever, but it would need to be more than just 1%, but no more than a 5% increase in odds.
Im bored and just spitballing right now
thoughts? This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 5:12 pm
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