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Started By
Message
Hopkins, Austin's year two >>Watkins,Evans,Cooks' year one
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:14 pm
all the hype about Watkins, Evans and Cooks, and to a lesser extent Benjamin and Beckham...but what do 1st round rookies really do?
at best you're looking at 50-60 balls 1,000 and 6
which isn't bad, but it's a WR3 ceiling.
I don't hear any chatter about Hopkins or Austin this year. As 1st round rookie WRs, they did what is normal:
Hopkins 52 catches 802 yards 2 tds
Austin 40 catches 569 yards 6tds + 678 ret yards
Let's look at how 1st rounds in 2012 did their 2nd year
Justin Blackmon
2012 64 catches 865 yards 5tds(WR3)
2013 avg 7 catches 104 yards in the 4 games he played(WR1)
Michael Floyd
2012 45 catches 562 yards 2tds
2013 65 catches 1041 yards 5 tds(WR3)
Kendall Wright
2012 64 catches 626 yards 4tds
2013 94 catches 1079 yards 2tds(bottom-WR2)
It seems to me that the safer/more up-side pick would be to grab Hopkins or Austin:
WR45 DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
WR46 Tavon Austin (STL)
than
WR35 Sammy Watkins (BUF)
WR38 Mike Evans (TB)
WR43 Brandin Cooks (NO)
LINK to Adp for WRs
at best you're looking at 50-60 balls 1,000 and 6
which isn't bad, but it's a WR3 ceiling.
I don't hear any chatter about Hopkins or Austin this year. As 1st round rookie WRs, they did what is normal:
Hopkins 52 catches 802 yards 2 tds
Austin 40 catches 569 yards 6tds + 678 ret yards
Let's look at how 1st rounds in 2012 did their 2nd year
Justin Blackmon
2012 64 catches 865 yards 5tds(WR3)
2013 avg 7 catches 104 yards in the 4 games he played(WR1)
Michael Floyd
2012 45 catches 562 yards 2tds
2013 65 catches 1041 yards 5 tds(WR3)
Kendall Wright
2012 64 catches 626 yards 4tds
2013 94 catches 1079 yards 2tds(bottom-WR2)
It seems to me that the safer/more up-side pick would be to grab Hopkins or Austin:
WR45 DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
WR46 Tavon Austin (STL)
than
WR35 Sammy Watkins (BUF)
WR38 Mike Evans (TB)
WR43 Brandin Cooks (NO)
LINK to Adp for WRs
This post was edited on 7/15/14 at 8:18 pm
3
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:24 pm to Iona Fan Man
Had Julio Jones played 3 more games in his rookie season he would probably be an exception.
2012 16 79 1,198 10
2011 13 54 959 8
It seems you're generally correct, although
the bust rates are probably pretty similar for
most 2nd year WRs around the rookies' ADP.
I love S. Watkins for the huge upside and the wonderful schedule playing the
AFC East, AFC West, and NFC North. Also Buffalo lost a big piece of their
good-great defensive front 7 so they may be airing it out. Watkins will see a
lot of attention though I'm sure, especially if he proves himself early. I'll
be watching training camp closely.
2012 16 79 1,198 10
2011 13 54 959 8
It seems you're generally correct, although
the bust rates are probably pretty similar for
most 2nd year WRs around the rookies' ADP.
I love S. Watkins for the huge upside and the wonderful schedule playing the
AFC East, AFC West, and NFC North. Also Buffalo lost a big piece of their
good-great defensive front 7 so they may be airing it out. Watkins will see a
lot of attention though I'm sure, especially if he proves himself early. I'll
be watching training camp closely.
This post was edited on 7/15/14 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:26 pm to Iona Fan Man
ADP didn't read
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:40 pm to Iona Fan Man
Predict Hopkins and Austin's seasons for me. catches, yards, TDs.
i think I like Terrence Williams more than both of them. Maybe even Kenny Stills & Justin Hunter & the NE WR's
i think I like Terrence Williams more than both of them. Maybe even Kenny Stills & Justin Hunter & the NE WR's
This post was edited on 7/15/14 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:42 pm to nolaandy
quote:
Julio Jones played 3 more games in his rookie season he would probably be an exception.
2012 16 79 1,198 10
2011 13 54 959 8
2010 1st rounders Dez and Demaryius
Dez Bryant
2010 45 for 561 and 6tds
2011 63 for 928 and 9tds
Demaryius Thomas
2010 22 catches for 283 and 2tds
2011 didn't play, was injured beginning of the season, came back and over final 8 games 485 yards 3 tds...with TIM TEBOW throwing the ball
Posted on 7/15/14 at 8:50 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Predict Hopkins and Austin's seasons for me. catches, yards, TDs.
harder because of uniqueness
austin 60-70 catches 9-1000 total yards
1,000 ret yards
hopkins
80 1,100 6 tds
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:03 pm to Iona Fan Man
i dont like how the Rams used Austin last year at all. Im not sure what to think of him.
Hopkins QB is meh, but he does have talent.
Hopkins QB is meh, but he does have talent.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:08 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Hopkins QB is meh, but he does have talent.
fitz made Stevie J look good for a few years, and he had enough to help get wright 93 catches last year
quote:
dont like how the Rams used Austin last yea
bradford got hurt too. but he was coming on right before he got injured
I don't like him really as well, but I also play in a ret yard league...so he gets a ~40pt bump
This post was edited on 7/15/14 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:11 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:
fitz made Stevie J look good, and he had enough to get it to wright 93 times
there's also Andre Johnson though.
I like Terrence Williams better, as far as 2nd year WR's. Kenny Stills, and Thompkins/Dobson maybe? justin hunter
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:15 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:
bradford got hurt too. but he was coming on right before he got injured
Bradford seems to get hurt every year.
The Rams haven't done shite to upgrade their WR position. Givens(meh), Pettis(garbage), Quick(shitty).
I think Austin will give you double digits every 3 to 4 games, which isn't enough for me.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:24 pm to Gtothemoney
they added Kenny britt
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:27 pm to Lester Earl
Is he suspended any? Britt is decent, but he's still got Bradford throwing to him.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:51 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
I like Terrence Williams better
oh yeah, i would go that route over hopkins.... Keenan allen too.
I was only talking about 1st round WRs historic 1st vs 2nd years.
I left Patterson out because he's drafted like a WR1-2 already like Keenan..
as for terrence
quote:
averaging nearly 17 yards per reception and being a perfect 9-for-9 in throws of 20 yards or more downfield.
great value as most say "who?"
Posted on 7/15/14 at 9:54 pm to Gtothemoney
quote:
but he's still got Bradford throwing to him.
bradford was on fire last year
240 yard avg, 2 tds per game
only 4 int in 7 games
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:43 pm to Iona Fan Man
quote:
240 yard avg, 2 tds per game
That's about 21 fantasy pts from your QB. The way the league has been trending the last 5 years or so, you need more than 21 pts from your QB. I mean 300 yds and 3 TDS are a dime a dozen now.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 12:07 am to Iona Fan Man
quote:
bradford was on fire last year
only 4 int in 7 games
yeah IRL.
dude is a game manager pretty much.
when can he just turn it loose and put up some big passing numbers?
he won't.
look at the division.
all of the NFC West teams are built similar. None of the QBs in that division are going to consistently light it up in the passing game.
Carson Palmer might try to but who is he trying to fool?
I agree with you on Hopkins though.
This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 12:09 am
Posted on 7/16/14 at 12:33 am to Iona Fan Man
I see where you might be going with Austin b/c of the added dimension in the return game but hoping he'll catch lighting in a bottle when you need a bye week fill in isn't the way to go.
the Rams drafted Tre Mason kind of high and that to me says they want to keep up the run first approach.
if Britt can stay healthy and provide some kind of threat then yeah, Austin might reap some benefits.
but shite, the guy is made of glass. He's always been pretty good when he stays healthy but well.. you know.
the Rams drafted Tre Mason kind of high and that to me says they want to keep up the run first approach.
if Britt can stay healthy and provide some kind of threat then yeah, Austin might reap some benefits.
but shite, the guy is made of glass. He's always been pretty good when he stays healthy but well.. you know.
Posted on 7/16/14 at 7:08 am to LooseCannon22282
Call me cray-cray, but I think both Evans and Cooks could be exceptions to this norm. I don't have much faith in Watkins, partly because he has EJ Manuel (who still has yet to make anyone look good) throwing to him but also partly because I've never really liked Watkins anyway (at least not as much as most people). In Evans' case, he's such a big body that can just simply out jump a lot of his opponents. He's also in an offense with one of the best WR's in the game today in V-Jax, who will garner a lot of attention via either double teams or safeties drifting to his side. Cooks, I think is more of a question mark for this year. His fantasy value will come from his YAC. If he carries over his talent from OSU without missing too much of a beat, he could have a big year. In our offense though, at least for one more year, it's tough to trust anyone not named Graham or Brees...Austin > Evans > Hopkins > Cooks ... IMO...On Austin, I just have to think that the Rams will have learned how to use him by September.
This post was edited on 7/16/14 at 7:11 am
Posted on 7/16/14 at 11:05 am to nolaandy
quote:
I love S. Watkins for the huge upside and the wonderful schedule playing the
AFC East, AFC West, and NFC North. Also Buffalo lost a big piece of their
good-great defensive front 7 so they may be airing it out. Watkins will see a
lot of attention though I'm sure, especially if he proves himself early. I'll
be watching training camp closely.
I do not trust EJ Manuel getting him the ball at all.
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