WSJ Market Watch Opinion: If Iraqi oil goes off line, $200 oil is next

Not meant as a political or financial issue, solely, but if this guy is right we're all in for a hell of a shock if this happens considering ISIS is starting to take over oil facilities in Iraq.

quote:

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Months before the ISIS rebels began their threatening move into Iraq’s southern regions, the International Energy Agency was imploring OEPC to produce and export an additional 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) more oil by the end of 2014.

The sad fact is that out of 12 OPEC members, eight of them are collectively in decline. When summed together Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela were producing just over 14.5 million barrels per day in early 2005; but are now producing just 11.25 mbd.

These countries are losing nearly 500 thousand barrels per day of production per year.

Of the other four OPEC members not in decline, only Iraq has managed to add significant production. It increased its output from 1.75 mbd in 2005 to 3.25 mbd currently.

The nearly 2 mbd of incremental Iraqi production were essential to keeping Brent oil within the price range of $100 to $110 per barrel over the past couple of years.

At best, the ISIS rebellion guarantees that any potential additional Iraqi oil output gains are not going to materialize in the near future. No oil companies are going to invest in Iraq until and unless the situation stabilizes.

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