re: Official Belmont Thread.

Honestly, everyone keeps pumping up the Wood Memorial, but that is the only decent race Wicked Strong has run in a long while. His trouble in the Derby was pretty average for the race.

I have decided to play against Tonalist. Even though the breeding says distance, if you look at his races, he doesn't finish especially well. Being the lone speed in a muddy race will almost always net a horse a win, especially against average.

I think the key to the Belmont is how one looks at the Chrome's Derby. Going in everyone was bemoaning that his work schedule seemed too easy going, and I remember reading somewhere Art Sherman says they were deliberately training him with a deeper eastern track in mind. I don't think the screws were completely tightened on Chrome. The Preakness was the tightener race. He had to work for it, and by the way he has been training at Belmont, he has moved up from it. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I think Ride On Curlin's Preakness was his peak effort and he will fall back.

My final thoughts on the Belmont include a little mood reading. It seems that the Shermans have become a bit more nervous and edgy the closer the race gets. I know this will sound arse backwards, but I think this means they KNOW the horse is sitting on go and really does have a great shot at WINNING a TRIPLE CROWN, a thought that is just blowing their minds at the moment.

I just get a feeling that if the horse wasn't giving them good signals, they would be much more loose about the whole affair because they would already know the outcome wasn't like to be perfect for them.

May they all come home safe tomorrow, and I hope everyone has a good day at the track or watching on TV.

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Chrome was not tiring in the Derby

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yes he was Watch his legs, not the jockey. He was stating to labor the last 100. Not drained but tiring.

let's also add, that no horse in past 30+ years has been given such an easy time in his races. Never had to check, never caught traffic, was able to do as he pleased. He's caught every break and the perfect trip every race. The speed never sent, fractions in neither were fast. He's got the perfect trip in both races.

Won't happen Today, he will have to work if he's to win. No more golden trips.

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Small hijack, ill probably be out at evd the 21st if you'll be there. :)

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off topic but did you see colby hernandez's sister is a jockey now? she is soooo tiny. won a nice12-1 win bet on her thursday night!

I am sure they were all tiring but Curve cut the lead because Victor let off the gas

How many horses are running in the main race?

ETA - Damn..only 11

Just re-watched the 04 Belmont. I'm not getting my heart ripped out again. Keeping my expectations very low.

COME ON CHROME!!!

Here's my take on the race. Matterhorn and Matuszak don't belong with this class of horses so they are immediate toss outs for me. I agree with everything SoGaFan said about Wicked Strong and Tonalist, and they will be over-bet, so I'm not using them. I want horses with value in my exotics. Commissioner is a toss for similar reasons as Tonalist. I think Ride On Curlin is going bounce this race, so I'm not using him. This leaves 5 horses. I think the pace is going to be honest, so I'm leaning less towards closer type horses like Commanding Curve and more towards horses that stick around the lead or middle of the race, regardless of the 1 1/2 mile distance (Brisnet indicates that early speed horses win 43% of the route races on dirt at Belmont). I have liked Samraat all spring, but I just don't know if he can make the distance of the Belmont. I don't think Medal Count is fast enough to win the Belmont, but his breeding suggests he should at least be able to handle the distance. I liked General a Rod as a 2 year old and I think he is improving, and I also have a gut feeling he is going to run a good race. I thought since April that California Chrome was the best 3 year old in the country, and he hasn't proven me wrong yet, so I'm sticking with him. I'm thinking CC for the win, General a Rod place, Medal Count show, Samraat 4th. I was originally thinking about keying CC to win in the trifecta and box Medal Count, General a Rod, and Samraat for place show. But I'll probably box those first three in a trifecta because I'm not as confident about CC winning the Belmont as I was the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to the distance of the race. Now I probably jinxed these horses so bet accordingly.

Ready to see history

Social inclusion behaving so far for the 5th. Maybe I shouldn't have left him off...