Did the GOP Just Set the Table for Rand Paul?

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A bit of advice for Republican establishment types: Stockpile your Valium for March 2016.

That’s because the Republican National Committee codified a presidential primary schedule this month that requires Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to hold their votes first. And Republicans from both inside and outside the establishment wing of the party say that calendar will provide a huge advantage to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and his legion of Tea Party acolytes.

But those same ties give Paul an advantage in three of the early primary states, and if the senator were to win or even put together a decent showing there, Republicans say he may have momentum that is impossible to slow. No Republican has won Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to win the nomination.

“If Rand were to win two of those first three or three of those first four, he would be a train gathering a lot of steam,” said Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican consultant and a veteran of George W. Bush’s reelection campaign. Such a string, Mackowiak added, would raise a number of questions for party chairs and donors.

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“He already has his team in place in Iowa,” said Chris LaCivita, a Republican strategist who worked on Paul’s 2010 Senate bid. “I don’t know too many presidential candidates who can say that in May of 2014.”

In independent-minded New Hampshire, Paul is thought to be a better fit with Republican voters, and he is leading in a series of early polls in the state, even besting New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte and the better-known Jeb Bush.

In Nevada, a caucus system allows for candidates with a superior organization to upset more mainstream opponents. In 2008, for example, Romney was in fifth place in polls heading into Election Day and went on to win. One GOP strategist associated with the party’s establishment told The Daily Beast that while Nevada can be something of a “jump ball,” Paul should have such an advantage there that “it would be surprising to even see the other candidates campaign much.”

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