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Started By
Message
Have the markets peaked?
Posted on 5/7/14 at 6:36 pm
Posted on 5/7/14 at 6:36 pm
Memories are coming back from the dot.com bust of the early 2000s.
Also the bust of 2008 comes to memory.
Now that QE is starting wind down, are the markets headed for another bust?
I'll hang up & listen.
Also the bust of 2008 comes to memory.
Now that QE is starting wind down, are the markets headed for another bust?
I'll hang up & listen.
9
Posted on 5/7/14 at 6:50 pm to Reubaltaich
It's a stock picker's year this year. The markets are sideways right now. Some sectors are priced out some aren't. I would stay in the mid sized value companies this year.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 7:55 pm to Reubaltaich
One year ago today the DJ closed over 15,000 for the first time.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:11 pm to Reubaltaich
Anything other than memories and feelings making you lean towards this? Clearly the markets are at some kind of peak or plateau as it's been a pretty flat year, but I don't think that means that we're about to go off a cliff.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:15 pm to Chris Farley
If you were in utilities you'd be killing it 
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:20 pm to roguetiger15
Not allowed to trade any individual securities
But I've got a utilities ETF
But I've got a utilities ETF
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:35 pm to Chris Farley
IMHO, the markets are just too darn scary high.
I just feel in my gut the bubble is gonna bust soon, don't know when.
I wish I could find one of my posts on the Moneytard board(a few weeks ago) where I was seriously thinking about bailing on equities and jum into safe harbor of bonds and cash.
BTW, I am pretty much still in equities.
I just feel in my gut the bubble is gonna bust soon, don't know when.
I wish I could find one of my posts on the Moneytard board(a few weeks ago) where I was seriously thinking about bailing on equities and jum into safe harbor of bonds and cash.
BTW, I am pretty much still in equities.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:49 pm to Reubaltaich
On a forward P/E basis, markets are slightly cheaper than they were a year ago. Has something changed since then?
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:51 pm to Reubaltaich
If your money is in a tax deferred vehicle just take out your principal and let the house money ride if you're so worried
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:52 pm to Reubaltaich
If you want to take some profit and money off the table go ahead. All I've bought this year are dividend payers outside of my speculative trades.
I bought a lot of stock in late 2008 and all through 2009-2010. I've been buying silver mostly, and a little bit of gold lately. I use complex investment strategies like buy low and sell high. I'm a pretty simple guy, but it's working out ok for me so far.
I bought a lot of stock in late 2008 and all through 2009-2010. I've been buying silver mostly, and a little bit of gold lately. I use complex investment strategies like buy low and sell high. I'm a pretty simple guy, but it's working out ok for me so far.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 8:55 pm to Iowa Golfer
On a forward P/E basis, markets are slightly cheaper than they were a year ago.
This statement here we could have a real debate on. Some have already had it. I'd be interested in other's views on this especially in light of how a lot of companies have kept their p/e's artificially low. I'm not talking about Amazon either.
This statement here we could have a real debate on. Some have already had it. I'd be interested in other's views on this especially in light of how a lot of companies have kept their p/e's artificially low. I'm not talking about Amazon either.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 9:11 pm to Iowa Golfer
I had a thread up about how insurance companies, specifically Life insurance companies who buy long term bonds, are going to go through some pretty ridiculous earnings fluctuations and it is going to be interesting to see how their prices shift
Posted on 5/7/14 at 9:26 pm to Reubaltaich
Not sure if it "peaked" but I believe a healthy correction(not a full blown crash)is in order.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 9:55 pm to Reubaltaich
When someone figures this out for sure, let me know.
This post was edited on 5/7/14 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 5/7/14 at 10:33 pm to fratmonster
The main bulk of my portfolio is in mid cap value funds for the next year. When the economy starts doing well out of a recession this is the space that normally leads the way because you get your built in value plus organic growth.
Posted on 5/8/14 at 8:15 am to Reubaltaich
* stock margin debt at all time high = crash
* shiller p/e VERY high = crash
* fed will have to tighten at some point soon = crash
but I'm still 90% invested, so I guess I still think the economy will grow into the P/Es and rates will not rise meaningfully for years....
on the other hand
* shiller p/e VERY high = crash
* fed will have to tighten at some point soon = crash
but I'm still 90% invested, so I guess I still think the economy will grow into the P/Es and rates will not rise meaningfully for years....
on the other hand
Posted on 5/8/14 at 11:35 am to Reubaltaich
Just quit looking at the market and focus on things you have control over, costs and diversity.
quietly buy every 2 weeks into a low cost total market index fund for the next 30 years and you will be amazed. market crashes should be joyous events, like buying on sale...timing the market is a losers game.
quietly buy every 2 weeks into a low cost total market index fund for the next 30 years and you will be amazed. market crashes should be joyous events, like buying on sale...timing the market is a losers game.
This post was edited on 5/8/14 at 11:37 am
Posted on 5/8/14 at 11:55 am to Iowa Golfer
With the 10-year still below 3%, I think the market (S&P 500) can easily support a 20 P/E ratio. At present, we're at about 17 times trailing earnings.
However, I think the market will get crushed when the Fed starts aggressively raising rates. I'm guessing this will be sometime in 2016-17.
However, I think the market will get crushed when the Fed starts aggressively raising rates. I'm guessing this will be sometime in 2016-17.
Posted on 5/8/14 at 1:24 pm to stonerolledaway
quote:
Just quit looking at the market and focus on things you have control over, costs and diversity.
quietly buy every 2 weeks into a low cost total market index fund for the next 30 years and you will be amazed. market crashes should be joyous events, like buying on sale...timing the market is a losers game.
Although boring and unimaginative, this has the attractive quality of "virtually guaranteed to generate a very positive result".
Posted on 5/8/14 at 1:47 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
I'm not sure that the Fed has any motivation to raise rates and especially not aggressively. Raising rates aggressively would crush the market though.
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