My algorithm says that Michigan State loses to Delaware

It is 12:24 AM on March 20th, the tournament begins in about 10 hours, and my bracket is already fricked. I'm sure of it.

I have Okie Lite in the final fricking four for gods sakes.

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I think you all recall how successful I was for the bowl games.

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yea the bookies love you

I have been compiling as much data as I could on teams coming into the tournament since 2008, i then categorize them into teams that are upset in the early rounds and the teams that pull off the upsets.

I have built a few formulas based on all the data I have compiled and havent touched them since they have been so successful last few years.

Most likely first round upsets (No 8v9)
My predictor rates the likeliness of an upset from (90-160) 140 being most likely

Every game with an upset rating of 125+

2011
(11)VCU over (6)Georgetown [155.1] Win
(13)Belmont over (4)Wisconsin [154.3] Loss
(11)Gonzaga over (6)St.John's [140.4] Win
(12)Clemson over (5)West Virginia [138.5] Loss
(12)Utah St over (5)Kansas State [132.5] Loss
(12)Richmond over (5)Vanderbilt [127.8] Win
(13)Morehead St over (4)Louisville [125.7] Win

2012
(13)Ohio over (4)Michigan [134.0] Win
(11)NC State over (6)San Diego St [131.4] Win
(11)Texas over (6)Cincinnati [130.8] Loss
(10)Virginia over (7)Florida [130.1] Loss
(10)Xavier over (7)Notre Dame [128.9] Win
(14)St.Bonaventure over (3)Florida St [126.8] Loss

2013
(12)Akron over (5)VCU [146.5] Loss
(10)Colorado over (7)Illinois [145.3] Loss
(12)Ole Miss over (5)Wisconsin [144.1] Win
(11)Minnesota over (6)UCLA [143.1] Win
(10)Iowa State over (7)Notre Dame [138.1] Win
(10)Cincinnati over (7)Creighton [134.6] Loss
(13)La Salle over (4)Kansas State [131.7] Win

2014
(11)Tennessee over (6)UMass [143.5]
(14)NC Central over (3)Iowa St [139.0]
(10)BYU over (7)Oregon [135.6]
(12)SFA over (5)VCU [133.2]
(12)N.Dakota St over (5)Oklahoma [132.6]
(12)Harvard over (5)Cincinnati [130.3]
(14)UL Lafayette over (3)Creighton [127.4]

11-9 over 3 years picking outright underdogs to win isnt too shabby.

Hopefully my formula will hold up and I can get 4 out of 7 correct

Two weeks ago Michigan St was not a favorite. Now they are after their B10 tournament championship. Cincinnati and their defense could easily defeat them if Sparty plays like they have this season.

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I have Creighton making a big run, possible Elite 8.

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Same. I didn't like Creighton all season but they got very good match ups.

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(11)Tennessee over (6)UMass [143.5]

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I like this pick.

I was very close to taking Tennessee over Duke, they seem like a tough team when they are playing well offensively.

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this says it all about you.

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It really doesn't have anything to do with their first round matchup.

I was just looking a lot of teams schedules, and for Creighton I counted at least 8 wins vs tournament teams, included a season sweep of 2 seed Villanova.


Of course it could just mean that Villanova is over rated.

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(12)SFA over (5)VCU
12)Harvard over (5)Cincinnati

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Sucker picks. Try again next year.

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11)Tennessee over (6)UMass
(10)BYU over (7)Oregon

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Likely to happen

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(14)NC Central over (3)Iowa St
(12)N.Dakota St over (5)Oklahoma

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Doubtful but a possibility

I agree with you on this.

I honestly see this team ending its run in the sweet 16 like the past few years. I believe MSU will beat Delaware because their style kinda plays right into our hands. I would be weary of the second round matchup but Izzo has his montra of "Get me to the saturday or sunday and I will get you past it". He is 11-1 in second round games in his career. His teams typically come out flat in the sweet 16. Virginia would be a team that takes advantage of it.