BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells (aka the 5th major)

This tournament hasn't gone the way anybody expected. We'll know who the last player in the quarterfinals will be in about an hour or so. And hopefully that player will be Novak Djokovic, or I will be out a lot of coin.

Alex Dolgopolov v. Milos Raonic:
I really want Dolgo to pull this one out. I'm a huge fan of Dolgo's game, and I dislike pretty much everything about Milos Raonic. That being said, I'm not sure this is a match I will be betting on. As noted, I really like Dolgo's game. He's solid on both wings, he covers the court like a cat, and he's a very creative shotmaker. I've been saying for over a year that there's no reason he should be ranked outside the top ten. Well, the reason he's ranked outside the top ten isn't because of his game -- as noted, his game is solid and is really lacking in the way of conspicuous flaws -- but because he has a bad habit of picking his spots. I'm not necessarily sure that he really LOVES the game of tennis. He has a lot of other interests off the court, which serve as distractions, and make for erratic results.

Now did I put 300 on him today to beat Fabio Fognini? Well frick yeah I did@! But that's Fabio Fognini, and he fricking blows. Raonic blows as well, but he can at least hold his serve.

I lean Dolgo, but i doubt I'll throw down big.

Tentative play: 100 Dolgo at +110.

Roger Federer v. Kevin Anderson:
Okay, did anybody watch the Kevin Anderson/Stan Wawrinnka match today? I didn't, but if anybody did, can you please tell me how in the frick Stan got beat by Kevin Anderson? Did he not realize that it was going to cost me a thousand bucks if he lost? Was he avoiding having to whup his buddy Federer's arse ine quarterfinals? Did Federer pay him a cool million to lose the match? Either way, I'm pissed.

Federer should beat KA. But Stan also should have beaten KA, and he didn't, and I'm rather pissed about that.


The winners of the above two will meet in the semis.

Prediction: Dolgo v. Federer
Winner: Dolgo


John Isner v. Ernests Gulbis:
frick a bunch of patriotism, I'm rooting for Gulbis, who is one of my favorite players. I have nothing against Isner. He seems like a nice guy. But I hate his game. I hate servebot tennis.

That said, this match is a coin flip. When Isner is serving well, all he has to do to win the match is win the tiebreakers. Same story.

Tenative player: 50 Gulbis at +110


Julien Benneteau v. Djokovic/Cilic:
Either of the two players from the former Yugoslavia will beat Benny. No question about it. If y'all don't know much about Marin Cilic, he is coming off an 8 month ban for doping, has hired Goran Ivanisevic as his coach, and is playing the best tennis of his life. By my eyeballs, he's a top 5 player right now. I'm not kidding. He's better than Ferrer, better than Delpo, who is out indefinitely with a wrist injury, and either better than or on the same level as both Stan the Man and Berdy.

Djokovic is now up on him in the third set 4-2 and serving, so it's looking like the Djoker will pull this one out -- and he better by God -- but I have been very impressed with Cilic. He's solid.

If Djoker holds, the odds for him against Benneteau will be almost too high to bet. If Cilic somehow pulls it out, the odds would be much mroe reasonable. And, to be clear, either guy will whup Benneteau's arse, but the odds I expect to see if Djoker wins will prevent me from substantially capitalizing.


Prediction: Gulbis v. Djokovic
Winner: Djokovic

Finals Prediction: Djokovic v. Dolgo

Winner: Djokovic