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re: General NBA Links
Posted on 3/14/14 at 9:33 am to TigerinATL
Posted on 3/14/14 at 9:33 am to TigerinATL
I wasnt trying to make it a Monty thing. I think he generally does a nice job on ATOs, assuming they get the ball in.
This goes back to the chaos theory from a panel.at SLOAN.
He does tend to wait too long for TOs to stop runs, but that isn't a big pet peeve for me.
Certainly time and situation matter. 2 seconds, down by 3 you want shooters and an ATO. But 8 seconds, 2 pt or less margin? Maybe the return diminshes if you call a TO just to run high pnr?
This goes back to the chaos theory from a panel.at SLOAN.
He does tend to wait too long for TOs to stop runs, but that isn't a big pet peeve for me.
quote:
Yeah, it seems like the primary reason to call the time out is to switch personnel and advance the ball.
Certainly time and situation matter. 2 seconds, down by 3 you want shooters and an ATO. But 8 seconds, 2 pt or less margin? Maybe the return diminshes if you call a TO just to run high pnr?
This post was edited on 3/14/14 at 9:39 am
2
Posted on 3/14/14 at 9:59 am to corndeaux
quote:
But 8 seconds, 2 pt or less margin? Maybe the return diminshes if you call a TO just to run high pnr?
If healthy and the starters are on the floor, they really shouldn't need to call a timeout. Monty just needs to signal the play or the player he wants to go with.
Posted on 3/14/14 at 7:03 pm to corndeaux
Interesting link on Andrew Nicholson and the dangers of a young player adding new facets to his game at the expense of old strengths. (H/T to SI Point Forward blog)
Over his last 10 games, Davis is taking more mid range shots than RA shots. Obviously injuries have played a role in his shot distribution and changed how defenses play him. And luckily, Davis is good at everything.
Over his last 10 games, Davis is taking more mid range shots than RA shots. Obviously injuries have played a role in his shot distribution and changed how defenses play him. And luckily, Davis is good at everything.
Posted on 3/14/14 at 10:47 pm to corndeaux
He seems to be scoring well, too. Blah blah blah efficiency, blah blah 3, blah blah midrange. As mentioned before, speading shots around spreads the defense, and this is why you need midrange shots. The mindless genuflection to some nice-sounding theory or flimsily supported number-crunching gets old. You have to keep defenses on their toes by taking shots from all over. Sure, you lean on efficient shots, but you do not eliminate the others.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 8:02 am to 42
quote:
The mindless genuflection to some nice-sounding theory or flimsily supported number-crunching gets old. You have to keep defenses on their toes by taking shots from all over. Sure, you lean on efficient shots, but you do not eliminate the others.
It's not about that at all. A few problems for me:
1) It's not that Davis shouldn't take those shots (important to his development and, as you say, putting defenders in bad situations). More that I don't want him to settle. At times, I've felt the team has forgotten how devastating he is at the rim, working to get him jumpers instead of layups/dunks. As much as his jumper has improved, he is still much more effective at the rim.
Like I said, playing next to non entities like Steimsma helps a defense corral him. But I don't want him turning into a LaMarcus Aldridge volume jump shooter- he is better than that.
2) Keeping defenses on their toes is great. This team does nothing of the sort. The overall shot profile and poor spacing of the team means defenses know what the Pelicans are doing. They know this team does not look, or really want, to shoot 3s. Pack the paint, contest the drives, limit OREB chances, and the Pelicans have no effective counters.
Some of this is personnel. Defenses will pay more attention to Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson than any of the guys taking their minutes. And, as you have pointed out, Anderson did his own thing in terms of 3PA and it does not seem to be part of the offense's design. 2nd least in both total corner 3PA and above the break 3PA in the league pretty much tells us this is not a priority.
The plan is RA shots all the time. Great plan because math, right? Well, no. Not if you want to keep defenses off balance and have them worrying about defending multiple areas of the court.
This post was edited on 3/15/14 at 8:23 am
Posted on 3/15/14 at 8:21 am to 42
meh. never mind
This post was edited on 3/15/14 at 8:28 am
Posted on 3/15/14 at 8:22 am to corndeaux
A look at last year's numbers reveals more of the same.
Top 10 in RA shots attempted in the league, while playing so slowly. (but 57% conversion there
)
Top 6 in Paint Non RA shots
Middle of the pack in mid range
Last in the league by 30 attempts in corner 3PA.
Top 12 in above the break 3PA (Anderson accounted for 40% of that total)
When playing with Anderson this year, there was an increase in above the break 3s and RA shots, a decrease in Paint Non RA shots, and no change in corner 3s or MR. The conversion %s are all basically the same.
So the team gets to the rim as well as anyone in the league (over 4K attempts the last two years combined) but can't finish there (~58% combined). So I have a few explanations:
1. Many players on the roster aren't good at finishing.
2. The good finishers have forgotten how to finish at the rim.
3. League defenses are able to more easily stop players in this system from converting at normal rates.
After watching enough games and seeing the numbers, I lean towards 3.
Top 10 in RA shots attempted in the league, while playing so slowly. (but 57% conversion there
) Top 6 in Paint Non RA shots
Middle of the pack in mid range
Last in the league by 30 attempts in corner 3PA.
Top 12 in above the break 3PA (Anderson accounted for 40% of that total)
When playing with Anderson this year, there was an increase in above the break 3s and RA shots, a decrease in Paint Non RA shots, and no change in corner 3s or MR. The conversion %s are all basically the same.
So the team gets to the rim as well as anyone in the league (over 4K attempts the last two years combined) but can't finish there (~58% combined). So I have a few explanations:
1. Many players on the roster aren't good at finishing.
2. The good finishers have forgotten how to finish at the rim.
3. League defenses are able to more easily stop players in this system from converting at normal rates.
After watching enough games and seeing the numbers, I lean towards 3.
This post was edited on 3/15/14 at 8:24 am
Posted on 3/15/14 at 5:21 pm to corndeaux
quote:
It's not about that at all.
It is related in terms of the shot selection, as Davis has been working on midrange jumpers all season in practice AND in the shot distribution you mentioned.
Posted on 3/15/14 at 5:26 pm to corndeaux
quote:
After watching enough games and seeing the numbers, I lean towards 3.
I'll do you one better: I says it's about dictating defensive spacing by having enough credible threats on the floor at once. They are forcing their way to rim, but the defenses can more easily stop them (as you said) but are more about to stop the Pelicans because they do not have to be as close to Aminu (example) because he is not a good shooter and the team (now) lacks multiple mature passer to get thr ball to the weak side.
A fine analysis by you, and a good article. I just think being a threat from anywhere is a good thing, and this point has, for some reason, been disputed.
Posted on 3/16/14 at 8:58 am to 42
quote:
it's about dictating defensive spacing by having enough credible threats on the floor at once
That is certainly an issue. Sometimes you have to play two non Davis bigs with Aminu and Evans. That should be avoided if possible, but you get the hand you're dealt.
But I also see systemic space issues. I am flabbergasted each time Davis (or Gordon or Evans) gets an ISO and we see two or three Pelicans crash into the lane before he makes a move. Or how 3PA are basically reliant on Anderson's unique talent and not part of the overall design.
I now believe that a large part of the high ORating this season was based on OREB and a very low TO rate. It worked well for a while. But that was with better personnel for defenses to worry about. Adaption is not a Monty strength.
Even with the injuries and the poor talent, there are still guys who can stretch the defense with shooting. Gordon, Morrow, Roberts, Babbitt, Miller, Rivers. Even Ajinca seems to have a decent jumper. If teams want to sag, let these guys shoot. But force teams to make a choice of helping or staying. Make them worry or hesitate with those threats.
quote:
I just think being a threat from anywhere is a good thing, and this point has, for some reason, been disputed.
I agree. Ideally you work to get certain shots (corner 3s, RA, etc) but you need to be able to hurt a defense when they work to take those away.
What bugs me is the poor spacing (:deadhorse:) and how the offense, in general, seems to settle for the available shot, not work to find the best one.
Posted on 3/16/14 at 12:42 pm to corndeaux
quote:
What bugs me is the poor spacing (:deadhorse:) and how the offense, in general, seems to settle for the available shot, not work to find the best one.
Same here.
For what it is worth, it bugs Monty, too.
Posted on 3/16/14 at 1:57 pm to corndeaux
quote:
What bugs me is the poor spacing (:deadhorse:) and how the offense, in general, seems to settle for the available shot, not work to find the best one.
Have you noticed how low the assist numbers are in the front court? Davis and Aminu are the only guys (not counting Evans) that average over an assist a game. Those numbers just seem really low, especially for how many minutes Davis plays. I'd hope he would almost double those numbers, to around 2.5 or so. You can't just depend on the back court for ball movement.
Posted on 3/17/14 at 8:31 am to corndeaux
quote:
Have you noticed how low the assist numbers are in the front court? Davis and Aminu are the only guys (not counting Evans) that average over an assist a game. Those numbers just seem really low, especially for how many minutes Davis plays. I'd hope he would almost double those numbers, to around 2.5 or so. You can't just depend on the back court for ball movement.
It's a system thing to me. Bird Writes or BSS had a post talking about hockey assists and how the Pelicans are among the worst at getting them. There just isn't much ball movement at all. Some of that falls on the players, but 65 games in it's clearly a system issue too.
And for some fun on a Monday mornign: DeMar DeRozan playing soccer yesterday.
Posted on 3/19/14 at 8:52 am to corndeaux
Some more links-
538 on 3 pointers and their value. They are not as bullish as others, notably Box Score Geeks, but their point is valid.
LINK
More on shot selection. A bit older, but still good. Tom Ziller on the Green Triangle
LINK
Two Knicks fans on Grantland discussing Phil. That's not terribly interesting but this part caught me
LINK
And lastly, a look at coaches on the hot seat. Monty makes an appearance.
LINK
538 on 3 pointers and their value. They are not as bullish as others, notably Box Score Geeks, but their point is valid.
LINK
More on shot selection. A bit older, but still good. Tom Ziller on the Green Triangle
LINK
Two Knicks fans on Grantland discussing Phil. That's not terribly interesting but this part caught me
quote:
I’m less interested in whom Phil might hire than I am exhilarated by the prospect of the Knicks actually having an ethos and an identity. The Knicks are a team of parts acquired with little to no regard for how they might fit together. The triangle would at the very least offer a framework.
Think about it: Mills is a blank slate whose moves, such as they are, might actually be Dolan’s moves or CAA’s moves or who the hell knows. Woodson’s coaching philosophy is a verbal commitment to defense that in no way mirrors an on-court reality. And he has a fundamental distrust of the small-ball offense that is the team’s strong suit. Melding Melo’s game with Amar’e’s has been a struggle. There is no synergy between the front office, the coaching staff, and the players, no through line linking all levels of the organization.
Ignore the questions about coaching personnel and whether the team’s players fit the triangle. The triangle means structure. It’s like the difference between free-jazz improv and trying to play an actual song.
Dubin: The league’s best franchises all have a synergy that extends from the front office down to the coaching level and then onto the court. Buford connects to Pop connects to Duncan; Riley connects to Spoelstra connects to LeBron, etc. If Phil can instill even a little bit of that in the Knicks, it’s a massive improvement over whatever it is we’ve been watching for the last 15 years. During that time period, the only direction the Knicks have had was, as I said the last time we exchanged emails: “WIN NOW, RIGHT NOW, AT ALL COSTS, EVEN IF THOSE COSTS ARE DRAFT PICKS AND PLAYERS AND MONEY AND LIVES, DAMN IT.”
But here’s the thing about structure, ethos, identity, whatever you want to call it: The stuff at the bottom of the food chain matters. And if Phil is really going to be a top authority figure who has final say but doesn’t run the day-to-day operations hands-on, those subordinate pieces suddenly become a hell of a lot more important.
LINK
And lastly, a look at coaches on the hot seat. Monty makes an appearance.
quote:
New Orleans Pelicans:
New Orleans has plenty of talent, but it was never anything close to a sure bet for the playoffs. The Pelicans will miss the postseason by a wide margin, and how the front office will react to that is unclear. It's probably best to bet that Monty Williams will get another try with basically the same group -- and a healthy Ryan Anderson, who makes a huge difference -- but it's possible general manager Dell Demps will decide it's time for more drastic changes. Williams is one of the league's youngest coaches, but his approach is decidedly old-school in an increasingly new-school league.
LINK
Posted on 3/21/14 at 10:49 am to corndeaux
Ziller responding to Zach Lowe's column on potential changes to the league. Great, great stuff from two of the best.
LINK
Both his article and Lowe's are long, but well worth the read.
And The Bird Writes has had a week long series about potential roster moves/fixes including FA, trades, and the draft. Check it out
LINK
LINK
quote:
But in the spirit of TL;DR, here's the quick version:
Deflate the odds at the top of the lottery, determine more picks in the hopper and include every team inthe derby
Now, the specifics.
Both his article and Lowe's are long, but well worth the read.
And The Bird Writes has had a week long series about potential roster moves/fixes including FA, trades, and the draft. Check it out
LINK
Posted on 3/21/14 at 11:01 am to corndeaux
This is a great thread. I'm out of town right now so when I come back all of this is in one place. 
Posted on 3/23/14 at 7:30 am to corndeaux
Tim Kawakami of the SJ Mercury News weighs on why the NBA is keen to raise the age limit.
LINK
It's long and a little disjointed but very interesting
TK seems to think the decision spooked owners as much as KG's $126M extension
LINK
It's long and a little disjointed but very interesting
quote:
The main PR push for the 20-year-old limit seems to be the idea that college basketball must be protected. The most powerful people in basketball are college basketball coaches (just look at who gets elected into the Basketball Hall of Fame most regularly) and they like to have good players under their control for longer periods of time.
Understandable. College fans want familiar names to hang around longer, too, and aren’t always big fans of the One-and-Done mentality.
It would be better for college hoops as a whole if the best players were forced to stay two years.
But the NBA should not actually make rules based on protecting the incomes and stability of college coaches and administrators (or to make college fans happy).
That’s not why the NBA wants the 20-year-old restriction, anyway.
quote:
A 20-year-old age limit sounds like the NBA wants players to spend two years in college, instead of the current rule that players must be out of high school for one year before becoming eligible to be drafted or play in the NBA.
But not really.
quote:
The only significant players who have entered the NBA before they’re 20–or would debut before that birthday–have usually been the greatest talents, because they don’t need extra time in high school to increase their value and they’re best prepared to hurtle the fastest into the NBA.
quote:
Under the current NBA construct, the super-duper stars have a realistic shot at a first extension and then TWO free-agent periods before they turn 30.
Meanwhile, those who don’t come into the league until after they’re 20 or older don’t realistically get that third contract until they’re over 30, when they’re usually not as valuable and can't wrap teams around their fingers
TK seems to think the decision spooked owners as much as KG's $126M extension
Posted on 3/23/14 at 7:38 am to corndeaux
I'm not saying they aren't, but that seems kind of silly. The superstar on a max deal is the best value in pro sports. LeBron was making less than $20 million and his value to the Cavs was estimated at $150-$200 million.
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