Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST | TigerDroppings.com

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SouthOfSouth
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Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST





Who: Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers
When: Wednesday, January 15th - 8:00pm (CentralTime)
Where: Tad Smith Coliseum (9,061 - 121st NCAA)
How: TV: CSS/CST, Radio: 98.1FM, Stream: ESPN3.com

Line: LSU +2.5

LSU continue's their two game road trip against Ole Miss Wednesday night at 8:00 pm. LSU has gone cold. After shooting above 50% from three point land for a few games, the Tigers have shot under 30% from three point range in each of their last three. Ole Miss' Marshall Henderson, who was suspended for the first two SEC games, has made 53 three's on the year. That is more than Hickey and Stringer combined.

LSU did see a bright spot in their road victory against likely SEC bottom-dweller South Carolina; The emergence of Jarell Martin. Martin had 18 points, 6 rebounds and 5 steals in the contest while only missing 1 fg attempt and 1 free throw.



Coach made two lineup changes last game and seemed pleased with how everyone performed in their roles. He added Malik Morgan and Shavon Coleman to replace Stringer and Martin. Martin played a great game off the bench and Morgan and Coleman helped bring energy to LSU's starting lineup early in the game. While the moves may not be permanent, it is a likely lineup against Ole Miss.

One major difference this season's Ole Miss team brings is the emerging star, Jarvis Summers. Last season Summers Averaged 9.1 points per game and shot 40.4% from the field. This season Summers has drastically improved his efficiency scoring 17.9 points per game on 52.4% shooting. Containing both Summers and Henderson means the perimeter guards need to spend as much energy as possible guarding these two.

Ole Miss likes to set multiple screens to get their shooters open; Henderson in particular. Henderson has taken 138 three's on the year (shooting 38.4%) while only taking 37 two point attempts (shooting 27%). If you look at the numbers, it tells you to get out on him and try to force him to drive the basketball. He releases the ball very fast so closing out must be done before the ball is in his hands.

When in the game, Henderson takes 36.2% of the Rebels shots, that is the 7th highest shot percent in the nation. Their next 3 shot % takers all happen to be guards. Their post players all take less than 17% of the shots. So, it is obvious to see what the Rebels like to do.

LSU needs to limit turnovers and get easy shots, especially if their three's continue to miss the mark. LSU's Anthony Hickey and Andre Stringer are 1 and 2 in Ast:turnover ratio in the SEC, however, due to LSU's post players turnover prone tendencies, LSU leads the SEC in turnovers. That is astonishing. Post players have to pick it up, especially in a game where Ole Miss can score in bunches from three point land.

Prediction:
LSU 75, Ole Miss 71







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thunderbird1100
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Marshall Henderson shooting 27% from inside the arc





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Hat Tricks
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Should we break out the ol "freak defense" for Marshall Henderson?

Seriously, who will we throw at him? Morgan? Coleman? Play zone?






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CecilShortsHisPants
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Member since Oct 2012
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Top 4 scorers for Ole Miss are all guards. They're soft inside, so I expect us to pound em down low. Find a way to keep Summers and Henderson out of rhythm and we should be ok here.

It's worth noting that LSU is +2.5 right now.

I'm going with:
LSU 84
Ole Miss 68

eta:
quote:

LSU's Anthony Hickey and Andre Stringer are 1 and 2 in Ast:turnover ratio in the SEC, however, due to LSU's post players turnover prone tendencies, LSU leads the SEC in turnovers




This post was edited on 1/14 at 9:24 pm


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Ignignot
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


LSUs post guys dominate.

Tigers 70
Bears 55






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CecilShortsHisPants
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

Seriously, who will we throw at him?

Hickey is my guess. Dude is relentless and will aggravate the frick out of Henderson.






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TigerBwoy
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


LSU 71, Ole Miss 64







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Big EZ Tiger
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

LSUs post guys dominate.


We have to actually throw it down low for that to happen. Hopefully they work the inside and take closer shots with the height advantage. We haven't been doing it though.






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massiveattack
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Ole Miss rolls

Rebs 75

LSU 64

Henderson will go for at least 25.

LSU's offense has been pretty horrendous lately. Hopefully they turn it around, but until then, I will pick with my head instead of my heart.



This post was edited on 1/14 at 10:17 pm


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TH03
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


frick ole piss





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CecilShortsHisPants
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Member since Oct 2012
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

TH03

You nailed it. I agree with everything you said.
Solid analysis and input.






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SouthOfSouth
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


I think we start with Malik on Henderson. Hickey is gonna have to stick on Summers who is more of a threat in my opinion. Summers has been solid. For Henderson we need to figure out who is best at getting around screens because ole miss will set screens for Henderson all night. Coleman may be a good option.





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DArbonneDuke
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

SouthOfSouth

Great job as always.
Agree that Coleman and Morgan will start and should. We'll need taller guard play.






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SouthOfSouth
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Arkansas band is playing STTDB right now.





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thunderbird1100
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


Anyone notice Butler has absolutely sucked it up since we beat them?

They are 10-7 now






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lwlsu96
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Member since Oct 2011
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


They've lost almost every game in overtime
Against some good competition too


Most overlooked negative stat for LSU is how little we get to the free throw line. We are ranked 325 in the nation in free throw attempts. We got to the line more in the USCe game, but this needs to be a permanent solution especially if we are having a tough time shooting from the field.

It'll be interesting to see how we attack ole miss this year. Last year they completely overmatched us in the post, but fortunately they don't have the same group this year. We have to rebound well if we want to have any chance of getting the W






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ksayetiger
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

Malik Morgan (6'44")






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SouthOfSouth
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

Malik Morgan (6'44")


I know... I know...

Unfortunately I didn't catch it till I had it posted and it's too much of a hassle to fix.


This matchup is going to be a really good one. My biggest concern is can LSU get through Ole Miss screens. LSU has been continuously killed by screens allowing players to get wide open. Tennessee had at least 5 uncontested three point shots due to LSU getting held up on screens.

Ole Miss' offense is centered around screening players for Henderson and and Summers getting into the lane.

While I don't think we try and special defense to guard Henderson, whooever is guarding him better not try and help on defense. He needs to stick on Henderson. With his quick release, Coleman seems like the best fit for me defensively. Malik isn't quite as quick, but is another option.

LSU needs to feed the post consistently, but it also wouldn't be a bad idea to force Henderson to play some defense. Especially if LSU could get him to foul us on some dribble penetration. I want to get the ball inside, especially with our recent shooting woe's. We will need an incredible game by JOB and Mickey which includes not turning the ball over 10 times combined...






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MichaelStringerLSU10
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Member since Mar 2013
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


The biggest problem is going to be Summers not only has he improved his shooting but he can do alot of things off the dribble and create opportunities for others. Henderson is to me a easier cover, if we find a guy to stick to him off the screens and commit to chasing him all over the court off screens once he gets the ball he's not doing much off the dribble.





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SouthOfSouth
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re: Preview: LSU (10-4, 1-1) @ Ole Miss (10-5, 1-1) Wed 8pm on CST


quote:

The biggest problem is going to be Summers not only has he improved his shooting but he can do alot of things off the dribble and create opportunities for others. Henderson is to me a easier cover, if we find a guy to stick to him off the screens and commit to chasing him all over the court off screens once he gets the ball he's not doing much off the dribble.


Totally agree. Summers has been incredible this year. I'm just worried about Henderson because I think LSU has shown an inability to get through screens on designed plays to shooters. However, Summers is the guy who can get the Rebels going.






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