Why College Recruiting Services Don't Work

After 1/2/14, I vowed to find a silver lining about the day's event. I came across this article that statistically proves/disproves some myths about how accurate the ratings services (247/Rivals,etc) reflect the real talent of HS players.

Here are some excerpts that pertain to a lot of comments on the TD board for LSU Recruiting (my comments in CAPS):

quote:
Since most players require one or two years of physical development before they are able to contribute on the field, they are better off identifying programs where they are most likely to start or contribute significantly by their sophomore season. Joining a talent-rich team is almost the surest way to never see playing time.

SINCE MANY ARE BUTT HURT ABOUT PLAYERS AT CERTAIN POSITIONS PICKING BAMA OVER LSU, THIS IS A VALID POINT

quote:
Even recruiting service defenders wonder if the recruiting services assign grades based on the services’ proprietary analysis, or if the services merely base grades on the quality of teams pursuing the recruits (i.e. players recruited by large schools such as Alabama are normally graded higher than players pursued by smaller schools).

CASE IN POINT - HOOTIE JONES FALLING FROM 5 TO 4 STARS UPON BAMA DECOMMITTMENT. OR THE FACT THAT ITS A WELL KNOWN FACT THAT ONCE A RECRUIT COMMITS TO BAMA, HIS STAR POWER IMMEDIATELY INCREASES. ON THE OTHER HAND, RECRUITS KNOW THIS AS WELL AND WANT THAT BAMA OFFER TO BOOST THEIR STAR POWER. AND IT DOESN'T HURT THAT BAMA BOOSTERS OWN SOME RECRUITING SERVICES.

quote:
How did these five-star prospects - the players whom the recruiting services considered the best of the very best players in the country - fare in the NFL draft? In a word, poorly. Over a seven year period, among the 200 prospects who received a five-star rating, just 30 were selected in the NFL draft’s first round. Draft Outcomes for Five-Star College Football Prospects (2002-2008) A more generous assessment shows that overall, from 2002-2008, the NFL drafted 53.5 percent of former five-star prospects over all seven rounds.

WHAT WE GET OUT OF THIS IS OF GW3/SN/TB/??, STATISTICALLY ONLY 1 OR NONE WILL GO 1ST ROUND. AND 1 WON'T GET DRAFTED AT ALL. OF COURSE ALL 3 COULD OR ALL 3 COULD BLOW OUT. STATISTICS Y'ALL.

Finally:

quote:
Getting into the NFL is the ultimate meritocracy. It does not matter which school a player attends. If a player has enough talent and determination, NFL scouts will identify him. Not all players may be drafted. After all, there are only 253 or so draft spots. But the best players, barring injury, will be able to forge careers in the NFL regardless of which schools they choose to attend

THIS GOES FOR EVERYONE, INCLUDING LSU. FROM SHEER NUMBERS STANDPOINT, LSU IS ONE OF THE TOP 3 SCHOOL FOR PUTTING PLAYERS IN THE NFL. THAT'S VERY IMPRESSIVE. FOR ANY PLAYER TO SAY THAT GOING SOMEWHERE ELSE GIVES THEM A BETTER SHOT TO THE NFL IS BS. IF ANYTHING LSU DOES, BUT STATISTICALLY IT IS A WASH.

*** My point is, of course we're butthurt when top local players choose to go out of state. On the other hand, the statistics prove that there is a very good chance that the player we replace them with (maybe at another position) may turn out to be better in the long run - even if it's a lesser star player.

I believe that the LSU football program sells itself and we are in generally good stead:

* 3 National Championships (2 BCS)
* Tiger Stadium (voted best stadium)
* Richest Football Talent State (esp for NFL)
* 4 consecutive 10 win seasons

Of course we need to constantly improve facilities and recruiting efforts. But the sky may at times be dark - but it's certainly not falling....

:geauxtigers:

This post was edited on 1/9/14 at 7:01 pm