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Started By
Message
Effectiveness of the Flu Vaccine
Posted on 1/7/14 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 1/7/14 at 9:38 pm
I have been trying to find two pieces of information regarding flu vaccines without much luck.
-What percentage of people who get to flu shot get the flu?
-What percentage of people who don't get the flu shot get the flu?
You would expect a simple google search to get results but the best I could find beats around the bush a little.
From the CDC
I know the effectiveness of the vaccines vary from one year to the next based on how well they predict the strains. So the vaccine this year only improves your chances of not getting the flu by 17%, and this is one of the best years ever. Am I reading that right?
ETA:
I finally found it,
LINK
Numbers pulled from link
311,794,110 People
31,816,763 estimated cases
6,630,473 averted cases
51.0 Vaccine effectiveness (%)
44.7 Cumulative vaccine coverage (%)
Numbers calculated
139,371,967 People vaccinated (311,794,110 million * 44.7%)
6,370,454 Vaccinated people who got flu (6,630,473/.51 - 6,630,473)
4.57% Chance of getting flu with vaccine
172,422,142 Non vaccinated people (311mill - 139mill)
25,446,308 non-vaccinated people with flu (31,816,763 - 6,370,454)
14.8% Chance of getting flu without vaccine
Vaccine improves your chances to avoid flu by 10.2% (14.8 - 4.57). That is 2013 numbers, which is considered to be a very successful vaccine when compared to other years.
-What percentage of people who get to flu shot get the flu?
-What percentage of people who don't get the flu shot get the flu?
You would expect a simple google search to get results but the best I could find beats around the bush a little.
From the CDC
quote:
These estimates represent a 17% reduction in the number of flu illnesses and hospitalizations that would have occurred last season in an unvaccinated population. These are the greatest benefits from vaccination estimated by using this model when looking back retroactively as far as 2005-2006.
I know the effectiveness of the vaccines vary from one year to the next based on how well they predict the strains. So the vaccine this year only improves your chances of not getting the flu by 17%, and this is one of the best years ever. Am I reading that right?
ETA:
I finally found it,
LINK
Numbers pulled from link
311,794,110 People
31,816,763 estimated cases
6,630,473 averted cases
51.0 Vaccine effectiveness (%)
44.7 Cumulative vaccine coverage (%)
Numbers calculated
139,371,967 People vaccinated (311,794,110 million * 44.7%)
6,370,454 Vaccinated people who got flu (6,630,473/.51 - 6,630,473)
4.57% Chance of getting flu with vaccine
172,422,142 Non vaccinated people (311mill - 139mill)
25,446,308 non-vaccinated people with flu (31,816,763 - 6,370,454)
14.8% Chance of getting flu without vaccine
Vaccine improves your chances to avoid flu by 10.2% (14.8 - 4.57). That is 2013 numbers, which is considered to be a very successful vaccine when compared to other years.
This post was edited on 1/8/14 at 12:56 pm
12
Posted on 1/7/14 at 9:40 pm to eelsuee
Never had the shot, and never had the Flu. Same thing with my Grandmother and so far for my son.
When I finally do, I'll probably die.
When I finally do, I'll probably die.
This post was edited on 1/7/14 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 1/7/14 at 9:44 pm to eelsuee
I don't know the direct answer to your question, but, it seems to be logical that the flu shot decreases the spread of the flu.
This season's shot included immunization from H1N1, which is a strain of the flu that is being contracted by many this season who did not get the shot.
If these H1N1 victims had gotten the shot, they would not have contracted H1N1.
This season's shot included immunization from H1N1, which is a strain of the flu that is being contracted by many this season who did not get the shot.
If these H1N1 victims had gotten the shot, they would not have contracted H1N1.
Posted on 1/7/14 at 10:23 pm to eelsuee
quote:
I know the effectiveness of the vaccines vary from one year to the next based on how well they predict the strains. So the vaccine this year only improves your chances of not getting the flu by 17%, and this is one of the best years ever. Am I reading that right?
Here's a better way to think about it, from last year:
quote:
Overall, the VE estimate for protecting against having to go to the doctor because of flu illness was 56% for all age groups (95% confidence interval: 47% to 63%). (For background information on understanding VE estimates and confidence intervals, see Vaccine Effectiveness – How Well Does the Flu Vaccine Work? and go to the questions: “How does CDC present data on vaccine effectiveness” and “Why are confidence intervals important for understanding vaccine effectiveness?”) This VE estimate means that getting a flu vaccine this season reduced the vaccinated population’s risk of having to go to the doctor because of the flu by more than half. However, VE can vary across age groups and across different flu viruses, so CDC further analyzed the VE estimates to adjust for these factors. When broken down by different age groups, the VE against flu A and B viruses ranged from 27% in people 65 and older to 64% in children (aged 6 months to 17 years old).
Posted on 1/7/14 at 10:31 pm to Champagne
quote:
If these H1N1 victims had gotten the shot, they would not have contracted H1N1.
IDK about that. The strain going around was not one of the stains included in the shot this year. Or at least that's the way it is here in Georgia. Many people that have received the vaccine are still getting the flu.
Posted on 1/7/14 at 10:48 pm to eelsuee
quote:
So the vaccine this year only improves your chances of not getting the flu by 17%, and this is one of the best years ever. Am I reading that right?
No, you're not. An overall reduction of 17% in the general population doesn't mean a given individual's chances of contracting the flu is reduced by only 17%.
Posted on 1/7/14 at 10:54 pm to VOR
quote:We actually had a discussion on this today. If I recall correctly, it was stated that the flu shot this year is ~70% effective.
No, you're not. An overall reduction of 17% in the general population doesn't mean a given individual's chances of contracting the flu is reduced by only 17%.
I'm just going by word of mouth though.
Posted on 1/7/14 at 10:56 pm to VOR
quote:
An overall reduction of 17% in the general population doesn't mean a given individual's chances of contracting the flu is reduced by only 17%.
I am pretty sure that is exactly what it means on average.
Posted on 1/7/14 at 11:01 pm to Scruffy
quote:
70% effective
What does that mean? You still have a 30% chance of getting the flu? Only about 10% of the general population get the flu each year.
This post was edited on 1/7/14 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 1/7/14 at 11:44 pm to eelsuee
The flu shot doesn't really affect your chances of catching the flu, but it does create herd immunity that helps keep it from becoming an epidemic.
ETA: there are so many strands of the flu and it doesn't contain them all. However it makes you get better faster and everyone unless a doctor tells you not to should get one.
ETA: there are so many strands of the flu and it doesn't contain them all. However it makes you get better faster and everyone unless a doctor tells you not to should get one.
This post was edited on 1/7/14 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 1/8/14 at 12:16 am to eelsuee
quote:
What does that mean? You still have a 30% chance of getting the flu?
It means it guards against 70% of the flu strains for that year. (I actually think that's high and it's more like 60%).
Not getting a flu shot is silly.
Posted on 1/8/14 at 12:19 am to eelsuee
CDC
VE = vaccine effectiveness (not defined in this paper)
The last number is the one that surprises me. That's the most vulnerable population.
quote:
Among the 751 infections with influenza A viruses, 560 (75%) had been subtyped; 546 (98%) of the infections were caused by influenza A (H3N2) viruses (Table 1). The adjusted VE for all ages against influenza A (H3N2) virus infection was 47% (CI = 35%–58%) (Table 2). The adjusted, age-stratified VE point estimates were 58% for persons aged 6 months–17 years, 46% for persons aged 18–49 years, 50% for persons aged 50–64 years, and 9% for persons aged =65 years (Table 2).
VE = vaccine effectiveness (not defined in this paper)
The last number is the one that surprises me. That's the most vulnerable population.
Posted on 1/8/14 at 12:37 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
It means it guards against 70% of the flu strains for that year. (I actually think that's high and it's more like 60%). Not getting a flu shot is silly.
It also varies from person to person. My mom and I both got the flu shot and she got the flu this year I took care of her while I was home on break and I didn't get it (knock on wood).
Posted on 1/8/14 at 12:37 am to eelsuee
quote:
I am pretty sure that is exactly what it means on average.
I am pretty sure that you asked in the OP if you were reading it right. When someone points out that you are not, in fact, reading it correctly, you dispute it?
I'm going to try to explain this simply. The arrived at that 17% figure by estimating the number of cases of the flu that occurred, and also estimating the number of cases there would have been in an unvaccinated population. According to your link, 31.8million cases occurred, and 6.6million cases were prevented, which means that 31.8+6.6=38.4million cases would be expected in an unvaccinated population. 6.6/38.4 = 17% reduction.
Here is where it gets tricky... only about 40% get vaccinated, and it is only about 60-70% effective, so just for simplicity's sake we can multiply .40 X .65 = .26, and say that the 40% who do get vaccinated is really more like 26% being vaccinated with a 100% effective vaccine. So we can't really expect more than a 26% reduction in flu cases.
Furthermore, the reason we will never see even that big a reduction is because things don't spread that way. We can't just auto-cure people who actually get the flu, all we can do is reduce the number of people who might get the flu. It's as if we have reduced the population of the country by 26%, and you wouldn't expect to see a linear reduction in the number of flu cases because of a variety of reasons. Reasons such as highly populated areas still being highly populated even after a 26% population reduction. Or those 26% who won't get sick can still carry the illness around and spread it to those who can.
Get it?
Posted on 1/8/14 at 6:01 am to eelsuee
The percentage of people who get the flu that didn't get the flu shot is Much higher than those that did get the flu shot. I'll keep getting the flu shot, thank you.
Posted on 1/8/14 at 6:06 am to eelsuee
You can play with the numbers all you want. My SO works at the ochsner's in Denham, and she says the office is full of people everyday, sick who didn't get the flu shot. I promise all of them wish that they had gotten the shot. Do the right thing and get the shot.
Posted on 1/8/14 at 6:30 am to eelsuee
I know someone who is very outspoken against flu shots. This year, he and his family got the flu. Everyone in his house had it around the same time.
Posted on 1/8/14 at 6:40 am to eelsuee
quote:
I am pretty sure that is exactly what it means on average.
No, your 17% number does not apply to the effectiveness of the vaccine for an individual who receives the vaccine.
And, I've skipped the vaccine this year just out of absent for no good reason. Just didn't get around to it. But I'm getting it this week because the worst part of the season is still ahead (it takes about two weeks for the antibodies to develop after you receive the injection).
This post was edited on 1/8/14 at 6:48 am
Posted on 1/8/14 at 7:13 am to eelsuee
Well in my house, 100% of the people who got the flu shot (my wife and daughter) got the flu. Conversely, 100% of the people who did not get the flu shot (me) did not get the flu
Posted on 1/8/14 at 8:02 am to Chimlim
quote:
I know someone who is very outspoken against flu shots. This year, he and his family got the flu. Everyone in his house had it around the same time.
My boss is the same way. And she and her family got the flu last year. Still won't get a shot, even though one of her daughters is pregnant and due to deliver next month.
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