- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Please answer the following math/philosophy question
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:01 pm to Easy
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:01 pm to Easy
quote:
Some things never happen
True and other events that happen have an effect on the original thing happening.
Like if the K key on a keyboard the monkey is using to type Shakespeare breaks.
0
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:09 pm to Easy
quote:
Not really. There's only the possibility that it could happen. Doesn't mean that it will. Obviously not everything that can possibly happen eventually happens. Some things never happen.
Jesus help me.
You have infinite time. Anything that can happen will happen.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:10 pm to thetempleowl
quote:
You have infinite time. Anything that can happen will happen.
But there is also the problem of having an infinite amount of non zero probability events. Can infinity things happen?
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:12 pm to Powerman
quote:
You are asking what is infinity/infinity
+++++
Not quite
Then the answer is yes - it will happen.
If the probability of it occurring is not zero, then in an infinite amount of time, it will occur, at some point in time.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:12 pm to Powerman
quote:
You are asking what is infinity/infinity
+++++
Not quite
Then the answer is yes - it will happen.
If the probability of it occurring is not zero, then in an infinite amount of time, it will occur, at some point in time.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:12 pm to Powerman
quote:
You are asking what is infinity/infinity
+++++
Not quite
Then the answer is yes - it will happen.
If the probability of it occurring is not zero, then in an infinite amount of time, it will occur, at some point in time.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:14 pm to Easy
quote:
So my aunt that never had kids before she died will someday actually have kids even though she's already dead?
Jesus help me.
She is already dead. How can she do something before she died?
The two things that powerman setup, let me rephrase this, the only two things that powerman said came into play in thinking this theoretical thing out, do not come into play here.
First, there is not infinite time. She already died.
Second, if you really want to be stupid and say why can't my dead aunt have a kid, well, that is a stupid, sorry, lets be polite, zero probability situation.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:15 pm to ChineseBandit58
quote:
it will happen.
kinda like a rare triple post
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:15 pm to ChineseBandit58
I would have assigned a zero probability to a triple-post, but...
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:15 pm to Powerman
quote:
But there is also the problem of having an infinite amount of non zero probability events. Can infinity things happen?
Obviously.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:16 pm to Powerman
the whole line of thought there is irrelevant anyway. we don't have any way of estimating the probability of certain traits evolving the way they did so speculation on those lines is fairly pointless IMO
richard dawkins (
) made what I thought was a pretty good analogy here in one of his books; all of these seemingly "unlikely" adaptations only look unlikely in retrospect. he explains it about as well as can be done so I'll just directly quote.
(also sorry for hijack if this is in fact a hijack, I figure it's ok to move the discussion along since the question posed in the OP has been answered)
richard dawkins (
) made what I thought was a pretty good analogy here in one of his books; all of these seemingly "unlikely" adaptations only look unlikely in retrospect. he explains it about as well as can be done so I'll just directly quote. (also sorry for hijack if this is in fact a hijack, I figure it's ok to move the discussion along since the question posed in the OP has been answered)
quote:
What do all objects that look as if they must have had a designer have in common? The answer is statistical improbability. If we find a transparent pebble washed into the shape of a crude lens by the sea, we do not conclude that it must have been designed by an optician: the unaided laws of physics are capable of achieving this result; it is not too improbable to have just "happened." But if we find an elaborate compound lens, carefully corrected against spherical and chromatic aberration, coated against glare, and with "Carl Zeiss" engraved on the rim, we know that it could not have just happened by chance. If you take all the atoms of such a compound lens and throw them together at random under the jostling influence of the ordinary laws of physics in nature, it is theoretically possible that, by sheer luck, the atoms would just happen to fall into the pattern of a Zeiss compound lens, and even that the atoms round the rim should happen to fall in such a way that the name Carl Zeiss is etched out. But the number of other ways in which the atoms could, with equal likelihood, have fallen, is so hugely, vastly, immeasurably greater that we can completely discount the chance hypothesis. Chance is out of the question as an explanation.
This is not a circular argument, by the way. It might seem to be circular because, it could be said, any particular arrangement of atoms is, with hindsight, very improbable. As has been said before, when a ball lands on a particular blade of grass on the golf course, it would be foolish to exclaim: "Out of all the billions of blades of grass that it could have fallen on, the ball actually fell on this one. How amazingly, miraculously improbable!" The fallacy here, of course, is that the ball had to land somewhere. We can only stand amazed at the improbability of the actual event if we specify it a priori: for example, if a blindfolded man spins himself round on the tee, hits the ball at random, and achieves a hole in one. That would be truly amazing, because the target destination of the ball is specified in advance.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:16 pm to ChineseBandit58
quote:
ChineseBandit58
What is the likelihood of chinesebandit triple posting in this thread about probability?
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:17 pm to TrueTiger
quote:
kinda like a rare triple post
Damn it. Too late...
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:23 pm to lsutothetop
quote:
your aunt, when she was alive, did not have infinite time for the event of her having kids to occur
Sure she did. There was an infinitely small probability that she would live forever.
My point, if I have one, is that looking forward, given enough time anything is possible. But being possible and actually happening are different things. Not everything possible actually happens. For example some things that are possible are bound to contradict each other. For every "X happens" you could propose "X doesn't happen".
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:26 pm to Powerman
Kind of like the theory that if a monkey is typing on a computer constantly for infinity, eventually he will write an exact copy of the works of shakespeare by chance.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:26 pm to Easy
quote:
Sure she did. There was an infinitely small probability that she would live forever.
But she is already dead
Which would be a problem of conditional probability. A condition has now been met that makes the probability go straight to 0.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:29 pm to Powerman
quote:
But there is also the problem of having an infinite amount of non zero probability events. Can infinity things happen?
yes, but infinity events =/= every event
to be more precise without a long-winded explanation: certain events occurring can make non-zero probability events become zero probability events
to take Easy's example, while his aunt lived, the event of her having children was a non-zero probability event, and the event of her dying before having children was a non-zero probability event. but we know logically these can't BOTH happen; that would be contradictory. the solution is that once one half of a contradictory set of events occurs, the other event automatically becomes a zero-probability event
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:33 pm to Powerman
The answer to your question is that there is some mind blowing shite that is above my simple mind's ability to grasp going on on the political talk board today.
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:36 pm to Easy
quote:
Sure she did. There was an infinitely small probability that she would live forever.
My point, if I have one, is that looking forward, given enough time anything is possible. But being possible and actually happening are different things. Not everything possible actually happens. For example some things that are possible are bound to contradict each other. For every "X happens" you could propose "X doesn't happen".
I just covered this in my last post, but it's worth highlighting on its own in response to this so here goes
essentially, probability is conditional. when we're considering the set of all possible events ("every set"), yes, we will be considering sets of events that are simultaneously non-zero probability and contradictory. for example, your aunt being able to die before having kids, and your aunt having kids before dying. both are possible, and both are contradictory.
however, once one actually occurs, the other event necessarily becomes a zero-probability event. it is not possible to have kids before you die and to die before you have kids, so once one of them happens (in this case, dying before you have kids), the probability of having kids before dying becomes 0
basically, think of this hypothetical timeline as a giant decision tree, with infinitely many branches. as we move down the decision tree, we cross off all the branches that we don't choose. once an event definitely happens, all potentially contradictory events cannot occur. there are still, however, infinite events to occur in the future, because there is infinite time.
essentially, you have an infinite set called the "every set" of all possible events right now. within this every set is an infinite number of infinite subsets, each smaller than the every set, but still infinite
Posted on 12/29/13 at 1:36 pm to Powerman
The deal with evolution though is that you can't accurately figure out the probability of life being created, because we don't know how long "matter" has existed for there to have been a probability value assigned to it being able to transform into a life form via specific chemical reactions.
You also have no answer as to where the "matter" that makes up organisms and the earth, space, etc originally came from. It come from something..nothing is just "there" because that makes no logical sense. Either a higher being beyond our comprehension created it, created us, or the matter came from origins so far off that eventually made it's way into what we perceive as our galaxy and surrounding galaxies.
We could simply be the unintended result of waste matter shot into space billions of lightyears away by some advanced civilization that eventually drifted its way here, had a chemical reaction, and boom here we are.
So with that, without knowing and understanding way more variables than we currently do know, you cannot say with any certainty whether or not the fact we exist was highly unlikely or highly probable.
It's such a mind-blowing concept to think about. Me personally, I'm religious but open minded to science. I believe God intentionally left many questions for us ourselves to answer or discover. That's why religion is based on faith.
I guess we will all find out when we die..we'll either cease to exist and it won't fricking matter at all what we believed, or there will be some sort of afterlife. Atheists might want to hope for the former scenario
You also have no answer as to where the "matter" that makes up organisms and the earth, space, etc originally came from. It come from something..nothing is just "there" because that makes no logical sense. Either a higher being beyond our comprehension created it, created us, or the matter came from origins so far off that eventually made it's way into what we perceive as our galaxy and surrounding galaxies.
We could simply be the unintended result of waste matter shot into space billions of lightyears away by some advanced civilization that eventually drifted its way here, had a chemical reaction, and boom here we are.
So with that, without knowing and understanding way more variables than we currently do know, you cannot say with any certainty whether or not the fact we exist was highly unlikely or highly probable.
It's such a mind-blowing concept to think about. Me personally, I'm religious but open minded to science. I believe God intentionally left many questions for us ourselves to answer or discover. That's why religion is based on faith.
I guess we will all find out when we die..we'll either cease to exist and it won't fricking matter at all what we believed, or there will be some sort of afterlife. Atheists might want to hope for the former scenario
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News