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The whole "star" thing
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:14 pm
In following rivals and other recruiting services over a 15+ year timeframe, I think it is safe to say that the star rankings DO matter.
Sure, there are always going to be notable and visible exceptions to point to, but if you took the overall stars and how many first string SEC snaps they got, there would be a strong correlation.
Has anyone seen this analysis actually performed and made available?
Sure, there are always going to be notable and visible exceptions to point to, but if you took the overall stars and how many first string SEC snaps they got, there would be a strong correlation.
Has anyone seen this analysis actually performed and made available?
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:17 pm to Football_Freak
Yea one of the sites did a study on it a while back. The five stars do have a higher percent of doing better in college.
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:17 pm to Football_Freak
Solid evidence presented IMO, good thread.
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:19 pm to Football_Freak
Look at the nfl and how teams try to play first rd picks
Mark ingram for example. They are probably mostly elite talent but what happens when the coaches incorrectly evaluate or dont properly develop the young men. Nfl or college i wonder what the talk is behind the scenes.
Mark ingram for example. They are probably mostly elite talent but what happens when the coaches incorrectly evaluate or dont properly develop the young men. Nfl or college i wonder what the talk is behind the scenes.
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:33 pm to Football_Freak
I don't think that anyone would argue that 5*'s tend to be good players. The argument is more that just because a kid is rated low, does not mean that is an indication that he will be an average player.
Further, most of the ratings, especially in the top 50 or so, are fairly arbitrary, and rely on very early evaluations of the kid. For instance (according to 247composite), Garrett is the top rated OLB in the class, and the 28th overall best player. What separates him from the previous 27 guys? What if your greatest need is an OLB? What if the top rated dual threat QB is rated #75, but he fits your scheme and is the best out there. Also, how often is the top rated player at his position actually the top rated? How about top 5? Point is, the team rankings are what can be skewed based on needs.
This is obviously just an illustration to prove my point, and not the exact facts in the situation.
Further, most of the ratings, especially in the top 50 or so, are fairly arbitrary, and rely on very early evaluations of the kid. For instance (according to 247composite), Garrett is the top rated OLB in the class, and the 28th overall best player. What separates him from the previous 27 guys? What if your greatest need is an OLB? What if the top rated dual threat QB is rated #75, but he fits your scheme and is the best out there. Also, how often is the top rated player at his position actually the top rated? How about top 5? Point is, the team rankings are what can be skewed based on needs.
This is obviously just an illustration to prove my point, and not the exact facts in the situation.
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:51 pm to OceanMan
It sounds like people that argue against any part of the star system don't understand statistics. Those with more stars are statistically more likely to succeed and those with less stars are less likely to succeed. It doesn't gaurantee anything and there are outliers in every tier (lower star outliers- tyrann mathieu, mo claiborne; higher star outliers- russel sheppard, gunner kiel). Outliers deviate from the mean, from what is expected.
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:56 pm to Football_Freak
People like to throw out 5* busts and mo claibornes.
Truth of the matter is, it's a pretty good guide. It's not 100% but all the arguments against it are exceptions, not rules.
I hate how everyone turns to Alabama on this board, but this isn't to slight LSU. They have been getting the top classes and having the most success. It's not a coincidence. And it's not bc Saban is an godlike coach. He's a good coach who recruits top notch.
Truth of the matter is, it's a pretty good guide. It's not 100% but all the arguments against it are exceptions, not rules.
I hate how everyone turns to Alabama on this board, but this isn't to slight LSU. They have been getting the top classes and having the most success. It's not a coincidence. And it's not bc Saban is an godlike coach. He's a good coach who recruits top notch.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:24 pm to RBWilliams8
Yeah but it has turned into who recruits which kid having an effect on ratings. All the best schools commits get bumps just by virtue of the track record of the program.
Ratings are certainly not irrelevant, but they are largely there for bragging rights. There are just way too many kids and too few quality, objective evaluators to properly rank kids from top to bottom
Ratings are certainly not irrelevant, but they are largely there for bragging rights. There are just way too many kids and too few quality, objective evaluators to properly rank kids from top to bottom
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:40 pm to Football_Freak
Even though our coaches recruit the players, not the stars, it does matter to recruits: both this year's and in the future.
They look at it as a team loading up for a run and want to get on-board.
They look at it as a team loading up for a run and want to get on-board.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:54 pm to LSUAlum2001
interesting stats here with the CBS all american teams. LOTS of three star guys. LINK
- Nine five-stars
- 23 four-stars
- 37 three-stars
- Four 2-stars
- Nine five-stars
- 23 four-stars
- 37 three-stars
- Four 2-stars
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:09 pm to Football_Freak
The evidence is there that stars are a good indicator of how a class will perform.
But does anyone here think that Miles, Cameron and Chavis actually give a damn what a recruiting board thinks about stars?
They are the ones doing the evaluating:
So if they recruit a 3 star LB and the Rant thinks they should've gone after the 5 star LB.....it's like a tree falling in the woods.
We all get it, Texas recruits better than Tulane and the results can be seen on the field (except for this year).
Coaches don't follow recruiting "star" rankings like fans do. They don't sit at a roundtable and discuss how they only got 3 five star guys and that the season was a bummer since the other 2 five stars got away.
They want the guys that they have evaluated as fitting into their gameplans. If they are five stars...good, but if they are three stars....fine with them too, as long as they got them.
Miles, and any other coach for that matter, doesn't research a recruiting board for its opinion on stars to feel validated in February.
But does anyone here think that Miles, Cameron and Chavis actually give a damn what a recruiting board thinks about stars?
They are the ones doing the evaluating:
So if they recruit a 3 star LB and the Rant thinks they should've gone after the 5 star LB.....it's like a tree falling in the woods.
We all get it, Texas recruits better than Tulane and the results can be seen on the field (except for this year).
Coaches don't follow recruiting "star" rankings like fans do. They don't sit at a roundtable and discuss how they only got 3 five star guys and that the season was a bummer since the other 2 five stars got away.
They want the guys that they have evaluated as fitting into their gameplans. If they are five stars...good, but if they are three stars....fine with them too, as long as they got them.
Miles, and any other coach for that matter, doesn't research a recruiting board for its opinion on stars to feel validated in February.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 8:23 pm
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:44 pm to Russianblue
quote:
interesting stats here with the CBS all american teams. LOTS of three star guys. LINK
The percentages will do that. If there are only 20 5 stars and 500 3 stars, of course you'll see more 3 stars in there... These sites don't see everyone and a lot of the times, they do get a lot of their looks at camps. Which not everyone goes to.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:54 pm to RBWilliams8
Jacob Hester=2-star. Anything more to say?
Posted on 12/17/13 at 9:07 pm to shrevetigertom
No team (since they really started with the star system) has the won the National Championship without a top 10 recruiting class within a few years of their victory.
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