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The whole "star" thing

Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:14 pm
Posted by Football_Freak
Member since May 2012
2410 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:14 pm
In following rivals and other recruiting services over a 15+ year timeframe, I think it is safe to say that the star rankings DO matter.

Sure, there are always going to be notable and visible exceptions to point to, but if you took the overall stars and how many first string SEC snaps they got, there would be a strong correlation.

Has anyone seen this analysis actually performed and made available?
Posted by zzemme
Member since Nov 2008
10163 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:17 pm to
Yea one of the sites did a study on it a while back. The five stars do have a higher percent of doing better in college.
Posted by TheDrunkenTigah
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
17302 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:17 pm to
Solid evidence presented IMO, good thread.
Posted by zoom
everywhere
Member since Apr 2013
3561 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:19 pm to
Look at the nfl and how teams try to play first rd picks
Mark ingram for example. They are probably mostly elite talent but what happens when the coaches incorrectly evaluate or dont properly develop the young men. Nfl or college i wonder what the talk is behind the scenes.
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
19961 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:33 pm to
I don't think that anyone would argue that 5*'s tend to be good players. The argument is more that just because a kid is rated low, does not mean that is an indication that he will be an average player.

Further, most of the ratings, especially in the top 50 or so, are fairly arbitrary, and rely on very early evaluations of the kid. For instance (according to 247composite), Garrett is the top rated OLB in the class, and the 28th overall best player. What separates him from the previous 27 guys? What if your greatest need is an OLB? What if the top rated dual threat QB is rated #75, but he fits your scheme and is the best out there. Also, how often is the top rated player at his position actually the top rated? How about top 5? Point is, the team rankings are what can be skewed based on needs.

This is obviously just an illustration to prove my point, and not the exact facts in the situation.
Posted by kbol34
Los Angeles, CA
Member since Mar 2013
583 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:51 pm to
It sounds like people that argue against any part of the star system don't understand statistics. Those with more stars are statistically more likely to succeed and those with less stars are less likely to succeed. It doesn't gaurantee anything and there are outliers in every tier (lower star outliers- tyrann mathieu, mo claiborne; higher star outliers- russel sheppard, gunner kiel). Outliers deviate from the mean, from what is expected.
Posted by RBWilliams8
Member since Oct 2009
53417 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:56 pm to
People like to throw out 5* busts and mo claibornes.

Truth of the matter is, it's a pretty good guide. It's not 100% but all the arguments against it are exceptions, not rules.

I hate how everyone turns to Alabama on this board, but this isn't to slight LSU. They have been getting the top classes and having the most success. It's not a coincidence. And it's not bc Saban is an godlike coach. He's a good coach who recruits top notch.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 7:00 pm
Posted by TeamLSU
Member since Feb 2009
3071 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 6:58 pm to
kevin faulk
Posted by OceanMan
Member since Mar 2010
19961 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:24 pm to
Yeah but it has turned into who recruits which kid having an effect on ratings. All the best schools commits get bumps just by virtue of the track record of the program.

Ratings are certainly not irrelevant, but they are largely there for bragging rights. There are just way too many kids and too few quality, objective evaluators to properly rank kids from top to bottom
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47117 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:40 pm to
Even though our coaches recruit the players, not the stars, it does matter to recruits: both this year's and in the future.

They look at it as a team loading up for a run and want to get on-board.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 7:41 pm
Posted by Russianblue
Member since Nov 2007
1106 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 7:54 pm to
interesting stats here with the CBS all american teams. LOTS of three star guys. LINK

- Nine five-stars
- 23 four-stars
- 37 three-stars
- Four 2-stars
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
29961 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:09 pm to
The evidence is there that stars are a good indicator of how a class will perform.

But does anyone here think that Miles, Cameron and Chavis actually give a damn what a recruiting board thinks about stars?


They are the ones doing the evaluating:

So if they recruit a 3 star LB and the Rant thinks they should've gone after the 5 star LB.....it's like a tree falling in the woods.


We all get it, Texas recruits better than Tulane and the results can be seen on the field (except for this year).

Coaches don't follow recruiting "star" rankings like fans do. They don't sit at a roundtable and discuss how they only got 3 five star guys and that the season was a bummer since the other 2 five stars got away.

They want the guys that they have evaluated as fitting into their gameplans. If they are five stars...good, but if they are three stars....fine with them too, as long as they got them.

Miles, and any other coach for that matter, doesn't research a recruiting board for its opinion on stars to feel validated in February.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 8:23 pm
Posted by RBWilliams8
Member since Oct 2009
53417 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

interesting stats here with the CBS all american teams. LOTS of three star guys. LINK


The percentages will do that. If there are only 20 5 stars and 500 3 stars, of course you'll see more 3 stars in there... These sites don't see everyone and a lot of the times, they do get a lot of their looks at camps. Which not everyone goes to.
This post was edited on 12/17/13 at 8:47 pm
Posted by shrevetigertom
Shreveport
Member since Sep 2005
4006 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 8:54 pm to
Jacob Hester=2-star. Anything more to say?
Posted by saderade
America's City
Member since Jul 2005
25719 posts
Posted on 12/17/13 at 9:07 pm to
No team (since they really started with the star system) has the won the National Championship without a top 10 recruiting class within a few years of their victory.
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