I was told today that there is a 30% chance Mack stays for one more year...

My source told me that the % breakdown goes like this:

Mack returning next year - 30%
Saban taking over - 50%
Someone else taking over - 20%

Was also told that Mack isn't as fond of Saban as has been suggested.

Mack has always wanted to coach through the 2014 season because he thought that was going to be his year...but the program is stagnant and the fact is that Mack has only won two Big 12 titles in his 16 years, while Bob Stoops has won eight Big 12 titles.

Was told QB David Ash has missed considerable amount of school due to effects of concussion, so there is chance he doesn't play again. And with Case McCoy gone, UT will be breaking in young but talented QBs. Is Mack the right coach to lead them next year? Most people will say no.

Mack's friend and ally Bill Powers (President of UT) holds some cards and could advocate for Mack to get another year if he wants...but Powers, who just won the recent power struggle with Bill Perry, could find himself out of a job if he keeps Mack around and Mack stinks it up again. Consider that against the backdrop of what Oregon could do to UT in their bowl game.

So, it looks like Mack is likely gone. The UT football banquet is tonight. Was told that Mack will probably announce by Sunday that he is done.

Saban will not get formal offer until Mack has officially resigned.

UT confident that Saban will take the job, but unsure how Alabama will react once Sexton shows Alabama what Texas has offered.

Was told that there is no way that Saban would get a percentage of the Longhorn Network...more likely some type of signing bonus to front him money.

My source thinks that things will move very fast after Mack's announces his retirement and that if you don't hear Saban announced as new UT coach by Wednesday, then he is likely not leaving Alabama.

Nothing real earth-shattering here...Some of this might be speculation mixed in with real facts, but the timeline seems plausible. Only real surprise is that Mack could return, but I personally believe that is a ploy to give the illusion that he is in control and to let him go out on his terms...we shall see.