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Comparing Iowa and LSU (lots of numbers)

Posted on 12/9/13 at 10:55 am
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 10:55 am
So I thought I’d compare the year between LSU and Iowa playing around with some stats and using Sagarin Pure Elo Ratings (those used by BCS) and bring “apples to apples” since we have zero common opponents or much to compare.

Tables are hard to copy in a post, but here are the teams schedules along with the week, opponent, score, ranking at time of game, current BCS ranking, and current Sagarin Pure Elo Ratings.
Iowa:
Week/ H/A/ Opponent/ Result/ For/ Against/ At Time/ BCS/ Sag Pure Elo
1 v NIU L (27 30) - 23 18
2 v Missouri St W (28 14) - - 184
3 @ Iowa St W (27 21) - - 105
4 v W Michigan W (59 3) - - 192
5 @ Minnesota W (27 7) - - 39
6 v Michigan St L (14 26) - 4 4
7 @ Ohio St L (24 34) 4 7 10
8 v Northwestern W (17 10) - - 67
9 v Wisconsin L (9 28) 24 19 19
10 @ Purdue W (38 14) - - 175
11 v Michigan W (24 21) - - 41
12 @ Nebraska W (38 17) - - 38

LSU:
Week/ H/A/ Opponent/ Result/ For/ Against/ At Time/ BCS/ Sag Pure Elo

1 N TCU W (37 27) 20 - 80
2 v UAB W (56 17) - - 146
3 v Kent W (45 13) - - 103
4 v Auburn W (35 21) - 2 2
5 @ UGA L (41 44) 9 22 21
6 @ MSU W (59 26) - - 36
7 v Florida W (17 6) 17 - 65
8 @ Ole Miss L (24 27) - - 26
9 v Furman W (48 16) - - 129
10 @ Alabama L (17 38) 1 3 5
11 v Texas A&M W (34 10) 12 21 20
12 v Arkansas W (31 27) - - 93

Average Score:
Iowa: 27.66-18.75
LSU:37-22.66

Average Opponent Rank (sagarin)
Iowa: 74.33 (ie Western Kentucky)
LSU: 60.5 (ie Texas Tech)

Median Opponent Rank:
Iowa: 40 (ie Washington State)
LSU: 50.5 (ie Navy)

Top 4 Games:
Iowa: 0-4 averaging a score of 18.5-29.5 vs. the No. 12.75 ranked teams (ie Oregon)
LSU: 2-2 averaging score of 31.75-28.25 vs. the No. 12 ranked teams (ie UCF)

Middle 4 Games:
Iowa: 4-0 averaging a score of 26.5-13.75 vs. the No. 46.25 ranked teams (ie Rice)
LSU: 3-1 averaging a score of 34.25-21.5 vs the No. 51.75 ranked team (ie Boise State)

Bottom 4 Games:
Iowa: 4-0 averaging score of 38-13 vs. the No. 164th ranked team (ie Duquense)
LSU:4-0 averaging score of 45-18.25 vs. the No. 117.75th ranked team (Maine)


LSU (No. 17) will be Iowa’s third strongest opponent (behind MSU and OSU).

LSU's "best" win was a 35-21 at home vs. No. 2 (BCS, Sag) Auburn the 4th game of season. LSU's "worst" loss was at No. 26 (Sag, Unranked BCS) Ole Miss 24-27 week 8. Biggest point differential in a loss was 21, 17-38 at Alabama, their 10th game of season.



Iowa (No. 30) will be LSU’s sixth strongest opponent (behind Auburn, Alabama, A&M, UGa, and Ole Miss).

Iowa's "best" win was 38-17 at No. 38 (Sagarin, unranked BCS) Nebraska last week of season. Their "worst" loss was at home to No. 19 (BCS and Sag) Wisconsin, 9-28 in the 9th game of season. Wisconsin was also the largest point differential in a loss--19 points.

This post was edited on 12/9/13 at 1:27 pm
Posted by AstroTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2007
22966 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 10:56 am to
this is why we either need table formatting or mono-spaced font.


Posted by jampat
Denham Springs, LA
Member since Jan 2007
11079 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Top 4 Games:
Iowa: 0-4 averaging a score of 18.5-29.5 vs. then No. 12.75 ranked teams (ie Oregon)


Enough said
Posted by TDTGodfather
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2007
6169 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:05 am to
quote:

LSU (No. 17) will be Iowa’s third strongest opponent (behind MSU and OSU).

Iowa (No. 30) will be LSU’s sixth strongest opponent (behind Auburn, Alabama, A&M, UGa, and Ole Miss).
Posted by HamBone14
Covington
Member since Jun 2011
1896 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:20 am to
quote:

LSU (No. 17) will be Iowa’s third strongest opponent (behind MSU and OSU).


This is insulting to me.
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:25 am to
quote:

This is insulting to me.



Me too. That's what happens when you lose to Ole Miss.
Posted by GeauxTigerTM
Member since Sep 2006
30596 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Top 4 Games:
Iowa: 0-4 averaging a score of 18.5-29.5 vs. the No. 12.75 ranked teams (ie Oregon)
LSU: 2-2 averaging score of 31.75-28.25 vs. the No. 12 ranked teams (ie UCF)



Ouch...

Posted by Grit-Eating Shin
You're an Idiot
Member since May 2013
8432 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Iowa (No. 30) will be LSU’s sixth strongest opponent (behind Auburn, Alabama, A&M, UGa, and Ole Miss).

Thank god for that.
Posted by lsutigermall
Plantation Trace
Member since Nov 2006
7301 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

quote: LSU (No. 17) will be Iowa’s third strongest opponent (behind MSU and OSU).


Insulting to me too. IMO we'd crush those two teams. I should say 'could'.
Posted by EvrybodysAllAmerican
Member since Apr 2013
11140 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:09 pm to
I think all this goes out the window since we'll be playing a new qb with a different style offense. Makes it interesting.
Posted by nchawk
Greensboro, NC
Member since Nov 2004
652 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:14 pm to
some good statistical work there. It does not account for trends though. I'd like to think that the hawks have improved a lot this year. It's a huge challenge for Iowa.
Posted by Rockerbraves
Greatest Nation on Earth
Member since Feb 2007
8015 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:20 pm to
Betting line opened at 8 makes LSU a better than 2 to 1 favorite to win the game.
Posted by lsuallsportsfan
WBR Parish
Member since Jun 2013
333 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:39 pm to
thanks, great info, love stuff like this..well done
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

some good statistical work there. It does not account for trends though. I'd like to think that the hawks have improved a lot this year. It's a huge challenge for Iowa.



Thanks. Yeah, I'd like to do more but ran out of time and thought I'd at least post something.

IMO bowls are not that predictable based on regular season in general. Like others said, LSU has a new QB with a different style (we think) so who knows what will happen.

This is more of a "how we got here" than a prediction of what will play out.
Posted by Iowa4430
Member since Dec 2013
208 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:18 pm to
Sorry, this got longer than I intended....

Most Iowa fans had no idea what to expect from this group before the season after coming off a tough year in 2012

Most people forget that despite our struggles in 2012, we had 5 losses by a total of 15 points, so even with all the issues of injuries and BAD QB play, they still weren't that far off.

Much of this was due to our HORRIBLE QB play last year and a young and struggling DL. Not to mention a new OC that seemed to struggle to get his system implemented and Phil Parker's first year as the DC. Iowa also had a decimated OL in 2012 losing our best 2 linemen for the year. So it was not an easy time.

That QB finally graduated and there was a shakeup with a number of the assistant coaches for the first time in the Ferentz era. This was a great thing as these new assts have breathed much needed youth, knowledge and life into the program. We are already seeing this on the recruiting trail and you can just tell that there is a change to the teams formerly stale approach.


Iowa has vastly improved from the beginning of the season and particularly the 2nd half of the season in 2013 we saw great strides. Offensive consistency has been the real issue. IMO, this is mostly due to a lack of play makers at the WR position. They have improved and we've seen flashes from Tevaun Smith and Damond Powell but the group as a whole have dropped too many balls for my liking and aside from these 2(at times) haven't shown the ability to make people miss in the open field.

Part of the inconsistency could also be that we started Jake Rudock, a true soph at QB who had ZERO career snaps before the season started. There was a lot of 2nd guessing from the fan base behind not giving Rudock a single snap last year even with our QB having one of the worst seasons of any QB in the country (I believe the only BCS school to have 1 QB take every single snap) So there was a ton of mystery coming into the season at such a crucial position but there was a lot of buzz that Rudock would be just fine. He has done as good of a job as you could ask for under the circumstances. He has played very well on the road which says a lot.

Our strengths are our LB's our TE's and the OL which is now at full strength. Our DL was very shaky last year and was a big reason for our struggles. The DL has played very well this year and IMO is underrated a bit. This D is on track with most of the solid D's that the Hawks have had over the years.

Many believe our 3 SR LB's are possibly the best LB group in the country. I feel confident at least 2 of the 3 will be solid NFL players but wouldn't be surprised if all 3 make it. They will be really missed next year but we do have some capable younger guys. Down the stretch they played as well as any LB group I've seen come through Iowa and we've had some good ones. It was fun to watch them react to plays without hesitation this year and just blow up plays. I'm sure our DL play had a lot to do with this but they are solid.

Overall we've had pretty solid CB play with the exception of a few breakdowns, particularly Desmond King, a true freshman has played well. He has been a pleasant surprise. I believe the other CB, BJ Lowery, might be leading the country in deflections. (at least near the top). They're not elite type guys but they are in the mold of typical Hawkeye CB's and we have several that are in the NFL.

Our weakness on might be the safety position. I think Miller and Lowdermilk have done a great job against the run but tends to let receivers get behind them on occasion and has led to some breakdowns. Against LSU's talented receivers, that scares me a lot.

One thing that has been a constant at Iowa is that Ferentz has them ready to play in bowl games. I am hoping for a good game down to the wire.

LSU may be capable of getting away from Iowa on the scoreboard if their young QB can make them pay with his feet which opens things up. Iowa has traditionally struggled more with a mobile QB.

I certainly think Iowa could pound away physically on LSU and control the game from that standpoint. I don't think Iowa would blow out LSU unless they get demoralized from the ground and pound and take risks that cost them big plays and then Iowa were to control the clock.

I believe it will be a combination of Iowa grinding down LSU for scores and LSU making a few big plays. It should be exciting.
This post was edited on 12/9/13 at 1:23 pm
Posted by Manky
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2013
1145 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

Iowa4430


Good post. This game will be close. LSU will sell out to stop the run or its going to be a long day. I like our O against your D we have more weapons than OSU and as good or better running game than MSU.
Should be a good game.
Posted by nchawk
Greensboro, NC
Member since Nov 2004
652 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:55 pm to
Others have said, I agree, IF LSU scores 30 you should win. While improved, iowa is just not that explosive.

Most teams come out, stack the box and play our WRs 1 on 1.
Posted by Mudflap007
The big D
Member since Sep 2013
216 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

I certainly think Iowa could pound away physically on LSU and control the game from that standpoint.


This perception is the essence of this year's sub-par performance by the Fighting Tigers and it is totally out of character for Les Miles' LSU teams (historically). Going forward this must change.

When LSU has been great, they have won with abusive, punishing defense. This young front seven came on strong towards the end of the year. They made Johnny Autograph look like Johnny fugitive, but I what was that effort against Arkansas all about?

I hope to hell Iowa cannot pound away physically on LSU. The only team to really do that this year was Alabama and they are in the SEC so they are probably a better team than Iowa.
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Others have said, I agree, IF LSU scores 30 you should win. While improved, iowa is just not that explosive.


IMO, it's pretty simple.

Iowa in this game is the constant. LSU is a wildcard; in part because of the QB situation, general inconsistent play, and apparent poor bowl prep recently.

Not to sound like a dick, but it's LSU's to lose.
Posted by nchawk
Greensboro, NC
Member since Nov 2004
652 posts
Posted on 12/9/13 at 3:11 pm to
Iowa tends to run run run and impose their will without a great deal of creativity. If they have a bit of success (a few first downs) they'll get creative a throw a few passes. If they don't have success running they'll chanage things up and keep running. If you ever watched Green Acres you saw that Volenteer Fire Department band. No matter what song the leader told them to play, they always played the same song. wish I could find a youtube of it for those who havne't seen it. If you have, you know what I mean.
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