re: BOIL has become predictable

Is KOLD a good buy now at $45?

DGAZ currently trading at $4.00. Where is the bottom? Looking for a place to dive in....

I picked up another 500 shares @ $3.85 today. Currently have 2000 shares @ $3.942 cost basis.

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DGAZ at $3.70. With warm weather ahead, I think it is time to jump in.

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Can you tell me why? Explain like I am a 4 year old.

So is this traded just like a stock? I've got a lot of cash in my Roth. I may jump in with you guys.

So if you think Natural gas will come down, you buy this stock?

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Heaters run off of natural gas. Due to colder than expected Winter, the U.S. has dipped hard into our storage causing nat gas prices to rise. A/C's run off of electricity. U.S. produces an abundant amount of nat gas. With warmer weather the price will come down. Profit

Simple supply and demand issue. Last April DGAZ hit 22ish.

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All of that makes sense to me, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. If it was that simple, wouldn't everybody be doing it? Where does the risk lie?

DGAZ held long term isn't really a good idea most times. It is mostly designed for day trading. It actually has to disclose this. Due to what they own, backwardation and contango apply big time.

These guys, at least as I understand it, are buying actual shares of DGAZ, and waiting for natty gas prices to fall, consequently meaning an increase in DGAZ share price.

This doesn't always happen due to the above. See UNG and BOIL recently. As it gets closer to expiry and contract dates, the price almost always comes dead even with spot, and the contract driven ETF's, who own outward contracts, don't always follow.

DGAZ will eat upon itself also. I believe it is an ETN, not an ETF. It is similar to VXX in this regard.

You'd be better off in my estimation buying puts.

So when I am buying DGAZ, I am losing time value if I hold? Similar to options?

I am sure there are fee's involved. I just like the opportunity to get in at 3.70 with warm weather ahead. Heck it's already up to 3.78.

Heck, NOTORIOUSD was bragging on Monday about making 10% after diving in at 4.21... I hope he had a tight stop loss...