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Message
Jeff Sagarin Ratings are boderline criminal
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:13 pm
I have defended computer rankings for 10 years because they are based on logic and objectivity. There is a formula that isn't based on subjectivity. All of the computer polls make sense, and I can even reproduce the Colley Matrix poll to the decimal.
But I quit defending Jeff Sagarin years ago. His poll makes zero sense and there is no rhyme or reason to the results. In 2011, all indications were Ok State would be above Bama in sagarin (even the poll itself said that Ok State had a tougher schedule) but they were not and it contributed to Bama in the NC game.
Here are the "elo-chess ratings" which DO NOT include margin of victory and are included in the BCS standings:
Sagarin Poll
1. FSU
2. Northern Illinois
3. Ohio State
4. South Carolina
5. Oklahoma State
6. Auburn
7. Bama
8. Mizzou
9. Arizona State
10. Stanford
Okay, so Northern Illinois is #2 which everyone is going to say is stupid (agreed). But then you make the argument that Sagarin's poll just must weight record more than SOS (okay I agree to disagree with the Jeff's algorithm). Oh but wait, 2-loss south Carolina is #4 above all the 1-loss teams.
But I quit defending Jeff Sagarin years ago. His poll makes zero sense and there is no rhyme or reason to the results. In 2011, all indications were Ok State would be above Bama in sagarin (even the poll itself said that Ok State had a tougher schedule) but they were not and it contributed to Bama in the NC game.
Here are the "elo-chess ratings" which DO NOT include margin of victory and are included in the BCS standings:
Sagarin Poll
1. FSU
2. Northern Illinois
3. Ohio State
4. South Carolina
5. Oklahoma State
6. Auburn
7. Bama
8. Mizzou
9. Arizona State
10. Stanford
Okay, so Northern Illinois is #2 which everyone is going to say is stupid (agreed). But then you make the argument that Sagarin's poll just must weight record more than SOS (okay I agree to disagree with the Jeff's algorithm). Oh but wait, 2-loss south Carolina is #4 above all the 1-loss teams.
This post was edited on 12/1/13 at 12:14 pm
9
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:14 pm to lsumatt
its based on a mathematical formula not his own personal views
but this is 1/6 of 1/3 so it has little impact on the BCS
but this is 1/6 of 1/3 so it has little impact on the BCS
This post was edited on 12/1/13 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:16 pm to catholictigerfan
You think his own personal views weren't in play when he created the mathematical formula he uses?
Wat???
Wat???
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:18 pm to catholictigerfan
quote:
its based on a mathematical formula not his own personal views
Its based on the mathematical algorithm he programmed. He is such a bitch that he won't publish his algorithm which as far as I can tell includes a random number generator. I have been able to figure out the basics of every computer poll algorithm, except Sagarin because it defies all logic
This post was edited on 12/1/13 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:21 pm to lsumatt
This is part of the reason why the BCS is so flawed. We need an 8, 12, or 16 team playoff ASAP!!! The 4 team playoff will be just as bad...
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:24 pm to Meauxjeaux
I totally agree that his system is ridiculous. I havent looked at it in years. Its hard to believe that he is still making money with his rankings.
I mean Northern Illinois ranked 2nd at this point in the season is enough reason right there to ban his formula. Can u imagine that BCS game? But this silliness is commonplace most years for him.
I mean Northern Illinois ranked 2nd at this point in the season is enough reason right there to ban his formula. Can u imagine that BCS game? But this silliness is commonplace most years for him.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:24 pm to lsumatt
I like NIU and Lynch, but I hope they don't get a BCS invite. Let them play against a team they have a chance to beat, like LSU.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:24 pm to Tiger Nation 84
Sagarin's own poll says that Auburn played a tougher schedule than South Carolina, yet has 2-loss SC over 1-loss Auburn. I mean WTF?
This post was edited on 12/1/13 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:25 pm to Tiger Nation 84
A committee deciding teams won't be any better. They'll be just as bias if not more so.
I always thought they just needed to make the computer poll formulas forced to be public. With the way the internet is today, they will be critiqued more than they ever have and at the very least, the results will be the expected ones instead of convenient shifts like '11.
I always thought they just needed to make the computer poll formulas forced to be public. With the way the internet is today, they will be critiqued more than they ever have and at the very least, the results will be the expected ones instead of convenient shifts like '11.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:26 pm to Eternalmajin
quote:
I always thought they just needed to make the computer poll formulas forced to be public.
100% This. Colley Matrix published his algorithm. It is reproducible. I know, I have done it. But none of the other computers do. But I am pretty sure Sagarin includes a random number generator.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:32 pm to Tiger Nation 84
quote:We need a 64 team playoff shortening the regular season and requiring teams to play twice a week like all other sports.
We need an 8, 12, or 16 team playoff ASAP!!! The 4 team playoff will be just as bad...
Posted on 12/1/13 at 12:38 pm to aslavey
Kids might die if you force them to play twice a week aslavey. This isn't badminton, its football...
Posted on 12/1/13 at 1:23 pm to lsumatt
quote:
2. Northern Illinois
Is this a game of which of these things don't belong? The rest of the top 10 have a reason to be there.
This post was edited on 12/1/13 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 12/1/13 at 1:30 pm to aslavey
quote:
We need a 64 team playoff shortening the regular season and requiring teams to play twice a week like all other sports.
Why do that?
if you're not in top ten at end of year for a playoff then go back to Chicago. Posted on 12/1/13 at 1:32 pm to lsumatt
I think Sagarin also weighs heavily Conference Strength, which I haven't looked at lately.
I haven't looked at it in a while because for the last 3 years he had the Big Xii rated the strongest conference if I remember right. Way ahead of the PAC-12 (which is inexcusable BS) and slightly above SEC.
I haven't looked at it in a while because for the last 3 years he had the Big Xii rated the strongest conference if I remember right. Way ahead of the PAC-12 (which is inexcusable BS) and slightly above SEC.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 1:34 pm to lsumatt
Oooo Matt mad.
Posted on 12/1/13 at 1:42 pm to lsumatt
I cant find the reference article, but just this past week on local sports talk, they were talking about how Sagarin had admitted recently that he knows his formula is flawed and he has a better program that he feels is more accurate, but "the powers that be" (whomever that is) doesnt want to him to implement this "improved" formula as it would disrupt the system too much.
no idea as to the veracity of this story
no idea as to the veracity of this story
Posted on 12/1/13 at 2:04 pm to Eternalmajin
quote:
A committee deciding teams won't be any better. They'll be just as bias if not more so.
I am really concerned about the 'committee' too.
You simply cannot tell me there will not be any personal bias. If you were a coach or player at a particular school you don't think they will push for that school??
Posted on 12/1/13 at 2:21 pm to lsumatt
If Sagarin was allowed to use margin of victory in the BCS formulations Northern Illinois would be ranked #37
Posted on 12/1/13 at 2:24 pm to kevv824
I remember the days where margin of victory was a big factor. That sucked.
I still think there is some lingering psychology there, but it's more of good offenses make ESPN more than good defenses (unless it's a now illegal hit or a pick 6).
I still think there is some lingering psychology there, but it's more of good offenses make ESPN more than good defenses (unless it's a now illegal hit or a pick 6).
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