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Message
Bird Writes Diagnosis of Early Team Woes
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:10 am
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:10 am
Very good write up from one of the guys over there.
Probably a little too optimistic for some here, but he makes excellent points about the offensive system being broken in terms of shot selection and has some really great links (particularly the one on how Monty used Anderson last season and the link to BSS) in his article that you should check out.
My main quibble is that he ignores how poorly Holiday has played to this point on offense.
What's Wrong With the Pelicans?
Probably a little too optimistic for some here, but he makes excellent points about the offensive system being broken in terms of shot selection and has some really great links (particularly the one on how Monty used Anderson last season and the link to BSS) in his article that you should check out.
My main quibble is that he ignores how poorly Holiday has played to this point on offense.
quote:
Why are you standing on the ledge? This is not college football or the NFL folks. Teams can (and will) lose games. Not only that, but absolutely absurd results (Miami has lost to Philadelphia and Boston already, teams expected to challenge for lottery balls, not playoff spots) are to be expected. You don't believe me? Last year on November 2nd the Pacers (49-32) lost to the Bobcats (21-61) and the Nuggets (57-25) lost to the Magic (20-62). On November 3rd the Hornets (without Anthony Davis or Eric Gordon) beat the Bulls IN Chicago. Don't you all remember the awful 3-6 start the Pacers had last year with losses to lottery teams such as Charlotte, Minnesota, and Toronto? Oh, yeah, probably not. But I thought I would remind you that the Pacers finished November 8-8 and their only win over an eventual playoff team was 79-77 over the Lakers. Maybe the Pacers, still adjusting to the lack of expected go-to bench scorer Danny Granger (injured in the pre-season), had a difficult time adjusting to their new rotation. There you go, back away and let's have a chat.
What's Wrong With the Pelicans?
2
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:13 am to corndeaux
I said 8-7 to start the season. I still think that's entirely possible, depending on when Ryno comes back.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:18 am to quail man
Yeah.
It's been frustrating and disappointing to watch, but everyone said this team would take time to figure out who they are.
That doesn't mean there aren't some disturbing things happening, but there's still a long way to go in terms of calling the season a failure or not. If we get to January/February and things still look this dysfunctional on most nights, then it's time to get back to the ledge.
It's been frustrating and disappointing to watch, but everyone said this team would take time to figure out who they are.
That doesn't mean there aren't some disturbing things happening, but there's still a long way to go in terms of calling the season a failure or not. If we get to January/February and things still look this dysfunctional on most nights, then it's time to get back to the ledge.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:31 am to corndeaux
I'm not necessarily upset at the record. It's a new squad, injuries, blah blah. I am upset at HOW we are losing. No offense, poor rotations as usual, little effort, TO's, etc. Maybe Monty will adjust but I don't see it. I think this is a team built to make a playoff run. I don't think it will happen with Monty.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:33 am to CQQ
The wins and losses look like two completely different teams. The Indiana game has been the only real close one- win or lose.
Strange days have found us.
Strange days have found us.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:38 am to corndeaux
The Suns have been and will continue to be my litmus test as to whether or not it's just our team "gelling."
It's just all too apparent that the transparency of Monty's system handicaps our players. We can't be having a field day at times throughout the game, then just lose everything on both ends.
I would give anything to see Monty's playbook.
It's just all too apparent that the transparency of Monty's system handicaps our players. We can't be having a field day at times throughout the game, then just lose everything on both ends.
I would give anything to see Monty's playbook.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:38 am to corndeaux
quote:
Thirdly, and most importantly, the team is running an offense from a time before the three point line existed. The Pelicans attempt 30 shots a game from the restricted area or defined as corner three point attempts according to NBA.com/stats. Even adding in their above the break three point attempts brings the total to 39 a game. Those 39 attempts turn into 45.2 points per game. The remaining 45 field goals attempted (53.6%!) occur from the restricted area to the three point line. The "Dumb Zone". And 34 points result. It does not take a rocket scientist or an MBA from Stanford for me to tell you that 45.2 points on 39 shots is better than 34 points on 45 shots. But let me break it down. Every "Dumb Zone" shot the Pelicans take results in .4 less points (45.2/39 - 34/45) than one at the basket or behind the three point line.
I AM ABOUT TO RAGEQUIT
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:52 am to SlowFlowPro
i hate everything about the "dumb zone." when did this become a thing? why did this become a thing?
Posted on 11/13/13 at 9:57 am to quail man
the Dumb Zone is an area of shooting that you don't want to rely upon, however we are doubling down
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:02 am to SlowFlowPro
When you have AD, Jrue, Tyreke, EG and Anthony Morrow on a roster and the only shot you can consistently generate is a 20' dumb zone jumper from your starting C..... youre doing something kinda wrong
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:05 am to MrPappagiorgio
Smiht is allergic to the paint.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:11 am to The Estimator
quote:
The Suns have been and will continue to be my litmus test as to whether or not it's just our team "gelling."
Not so sure its apples to apples. The Suns pieces have coherence. Bledsoe/Dragic are capable creators, every one else can shoot.
The Pelicans roster is a tougher nut to crack. 3 of the 4 best players are used to having the ball and looking for their shot. None are used to being floor spacers or working much off the ball. Not excusing the poor display, but the talents are an odd fit. Monty has not been up to the task so far.
quote:
SlowFlowPro
quote:
I AM ABOUT TO RAGEQUIT
Exactly. Someone in the organization has to know those numbers. Mind boggling that we see the same Dumb Zone action game after gamePosted on 11/13/13 at 10:15 am to corndeaux
quote:
The Pelicans roster is a tougher nut to crack. 3 of the 4 best players are used to having the ball and looking for their shot. None are used to being floor spacers or working much off the ball. Not excusing the poor display, but the talents are an odd fit. Monty has not been up to the task so far.
Ummm…seems like it's a GM problem to me. If the pieces don't fit why are they here in the first place?
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:23 am to quail man
quote:
i hate everything about the "dumb zone." when did this become a thing? why did this become a thing
I find it quite annoying.
If you only take shots at midrange and 50%, you get a point per possession on average. If you his the three at the average rate, you get more. It is seemingly easy for some to switch some 2's to some 3's, so doing that some is good idea.
Fine.
To repeatedly a team for not taking as many 3's gets old fast. They had a high success rate and a low attempt rate. Based on the results last night (0 of 6 until Rivers hit one late, I think) bear out the conservative approach.
The team shot poorly and rebounded poorly. They also defended poorly. These are way bigger issues...
The idea that every long 2 is bad and should be replace by 3's is a bad one. If you allow the defense to know "I will likely shoot from here," they will defend that spot and lower the make rate and attempt rate likely.
So, I see the love of the three as a wrinkle used to optimize once you are actually making shots. The blanket blasting of long 2's is what I find overzealous.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:34 am to 42
quote:
The idea that every long 2 is bad and should be replace by 3's is a bad one. If you allow the defense to know "I will likely shoot from here," they will defend that spot and lower the make rate and attempt rate likely.
So, I see the love of the three as a wrinkle used to optimize once you are actually making shots. The blanket blasting of long 2's is what I find overzealous.
Show me a good offense that relies on long 2s and I'll agree with your point.
ETA: It's widely accepted that teams should try to minimize the number of mid-range jumpers they shoot. RA shots and threes are more effective. No one should say that those shots are bad period because they are necessary.
But it's borderline stupid to be taking 53% of their shots from mid-range. At what point do you realize you're taking the shots defenses want you to take?
Smiht is gonna blow by his career high in shots because he keeps taking that same 18-20 footer. Ever notice teams never run out at him? It's because they're fine with A.) Jason Smiht shooting and 2.) forcing those inefficient shots.
This post was edited on 11/13/13 at 10:43 am
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:38 am to PKTiger
Show me where he said an offense should rely on the long 2
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:42 am to PKTiger
quote:
Show me a good offense that relies on long 2s and I'll agree with your point.
It's not so much relying on them, as incorporating them into the offense and taking advantage of open shots. No offense is either lay ups or taking 3's. A successful NBA offense has to have efficient mid range shooters. The shots will be there, so you have to take advantage.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:52 am to brmark70816
quote:
It's not so much relying on them, as incorporating them into the offense and taking advantage of open shots. No offense is either lay ups or taking 3's. A successful NBA offense has to have efficient mid range shooters. The shots will be there, so you have to take advantage.
I disagree. The shots are there for a reason - defenses want you to take them. As an offense, you have to work to get better shots. Houston took 13 shots per game from 10-23 feet. That takes a great offensive system and team commitment to lay off those shots, both of which the Pelicans are lacking right now.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:52 am to quail man
quote:
Show me where he said an offense should rely on the long 2
Thanks.
My point is not that this 'most improvable' shot (not the worst!) should be the staple, but that its total elimination is also a bad idea. As such, pounding on each and every one of them does not really further discussion.
The mix is important, as is who takes the shots.
An earlier thread addressed this, but Durant takes a ton of long 2's (and other shots), and does it from all over the floor.
Here is LeBron
Curry
Taking the long 2 and being good at it opens up the 3. It's not simply about efficiency. It's about the defense's reaction.
These guys are essentially experts of some form, and their shot selection and prowess, among other things, is tied to money, so they are incentivized to work out the best ways to do things. That doesn't mean this is the best way, but the long 2 seems to have a place.
As a matter of fact, there are areas on the floor where the fg% is worse than for long 2's just in side the arc. Those shots can't be easily improved in efficiency, but the long 2's can . . . in theory. The actual players still have to make the actual shots. At that point, averages go out the window to some extent.
So the conversation about this team and the conversation about "basketball" are potentially different.
Posted on 11/13/13 at 10:56 am to PKTiger
quote:
I disagree. The shots are there for a reason - defenses want you to take them. As an offense, you have to work to get better shots. Houston took 13 shots per game from 10-23 feet. That takes a great offensive system and team commitment to lay off those shots, both of which the Pelicans are lacking right now.
Yes, and you combat this is 2 ways, not 1.
You make sure you take some shots they don't want you to take (smart 3's, close shots), AND you take their strategy, turn that sum-buck sideways, and stick it straight up their coach's clipboard.
So, you take that shot and you make it more efficient to make them adjust. Once they are reacting to you, you have sente (as in go), and that's a good thing to have.
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