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BSS on Pelicans Defense
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:09 pm
Schwan has a very good look at what the Pelicans are doing right and wrong on defense so far.
LINK
They have tremendous length and athleticism on the court almost all the time now. This is a good sign.
This is great, considering everyone was worried about rebounding. It looks like a team effort and credit needs to be given to the coaches for making that a priority so far.
Could be a consequence of going for steals more often. Also Steimsma and Smiht are walking fouls.
This is the single biggest problem facing this team. Don't know if it's his scheme or if guys are missing rotations, but if it doesn't change this team is headed for a top 10 pick and Monty is headed to the unemployment line.
LINK
quote:
As the Pelicans stand today, they are scoring 104.4 points per 100 posessions – and giving up 103.3 points per 100 posessions. Those numbers rank 10th and 12th respectively in the league and both of those numbers are improvements over last year, when they finished 16th and 28th in the league.
quote:
This year, the Pelicans are the 8th best in the league, forcing turnovers on 16.8% of plays. if you want to find the primary reason the Pelicans aren’t still a disaster defensively, this is the place to look
They have tremendous length and athleticism on the court almost all the time now. This is a good sign.
quote:
grabbing a massive 79.1% of available defensive rebounds – and moving up to 4th in the league.
This is great, considering everyone was worried about rebounding. It looks like a team effort and credit needs to be given to the coaches for making that a priority so far.
quote:
The Pelicans are actually giving up more free-throws this year that last, allowing a free throw attempt every 4 field goal attempts
Could be a consequence of going for steals more often. Also Steimsma and Smiht are walking fouls.
quote:
Last year, New Orleans allowed an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%, ranking 28th in the league. And . . . this year the Pelicans are allowing a 52.0% effective shooting percentage. Sigh.
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To illustrate, I put together a stat I call Bad Shots Rate (BS Rate) – I combined the percentage of shots a team’s opponents take at the rim and from behind the three point line – and end up with a ranking on how good each team is at forcing teams to take mid-range shots. The Pelicans, predictably, have the 7th worst BS Rate, as 37.23% of shots taken by New Orleans opponents are inside the Dumb Zone. The league average is 41.22%. The Pacers, with the best defense in the league, force 47.49% of opponents shots to be taken in the Dumb Zone.
Controlling the type of shots an opponent gets is a foundational principle for any defense – and this foundation is badly cracked. It doesn’t matter how well you contest if the other team is getting the shots they want, and other teams are really getting the shots they want. Pelican opponents get corner threes – the most efficient shot in basketball – on 9.51% of their attempts. That’s the third highest rate in the league. The league average rate of shots at the rim is 33.3%. Pelican opponents get shots at the rim 35% of the time.
This is the single biggest problem facing this team. Don't know if it's his scheme or if guys are missing rotations, but if it doesn't change this team is headed for a top 10 pick and Monty is headed to the unemployment line.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:12 pm to corndeaux
quote:
a top 10 pick and Monty is headed to the unemployment line.
We only get to keep it if it is in the top 6.
Let's hope for Demps' sake that we're either really bad or end up as a borderline playoff team.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:21 pm to corndeaux
I'd like to know the Pels bad shot percentage. Does he mention that in the article, or it is only focused on defense?
ETA: After looking at a shot chart for the Pels it seems that ~42% of their shots are in the dumb zone.
ETA: After looking at a shot chart for the Pels it seems that ~42% of their shots are in the dumb zone.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:27 pm to corndeaux
quote:
This is the single biggest problem facing this team. Don't know if it's his scheme or if guys are missing rotations, but if it doesn't change
I wouldn't expect it to change. People complaining about the uncontested 3s might actually happen more than complaints about Monty's rotations.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:31 pm to corndeaux
Why is it measured in per 100 possessions? Who gives a shite about that.
The Pelicans are 9th in the league in opponent POINTS PER GAME. Isn't that the stat that really matters? The Pelicans are only averaging about 96 possessions per game.
Last season there were 0 teams that finished with over 100 possessions per game and there have only been 2 teams average over 100 since 2009.
New Orleans Possessions per game:
2010-2011: 29th in the league
2011-2012: 30th
2012-2013: 30th
The Pelicans are 9th in the league in opponent POINTS PER GAME. Isn't that the stat that really matters? The Pelicans are only averaging about 96 possessions per game.
Last season there were 0 teams that finished with over 100 possessions per game and there have only been 2 teams average over 100 since 2009.
New Orleans Possessions per game:
2010-2011: 29th in the league
2011-2012: 30th
2012-2013: 30th
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:33 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
I wouldn't expect it to change.
You don't expect defensive rotations to improve over the year with this group?
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:34 pm to TigerinATL
Monty's defensive schemes have never been good. Let someone shoot a hook shot in the post over Davis or stiemsma as opposed to doubling them and giving up wide open 3's especially when a team is on fire. Watch when we play the warriors Monty will still double bogut and lee and force us to have to close out on Thompson and curry.
Same problem Chavis has. If the players can't understand a zone/rotation system then change the damn system. Especially when you're more athletic man to man than the majority of other teams
Same problem Chavis has. If the players can't understand a zone/rotation system then change the damn system. Especially when you're more athletic man to man than the majority of other teams
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:38 pm to corndeaux
quote:
This is the single biggest problem facing this team. Don't know if it's his scheme or if guys are missing rotations, but if it doesn't change this team is headed for a top 10 pick and Monty is headed to the unemployment line.
It's mostly scheme. They hedge out aggressively in the pick and roll. They're usually fine when it's AD hedging, but Smith and Stiemsma allow the guard to turn the corner too easily. That leaves 3 Pels guarding 4 guys on the back side of the play. Of course, you guard the basket first, so consequently they give up a ton of open threes.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:41 pm to EarthwormJim
quote:
You don't expect defensive rotations to improve over the year with this group?
I don't expect the philosophy to change. Even when the defense was pretty good in the last CP3 year, the Hornets still allowed the 12th most 3 point attempts in the league. I don't have time to calculate the percentage, but almost all the teams ahead of them were fast paced teams, so on a percentage basis of 3s allowed they'd probably be top 5.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:43 pm to Noplacelikehome
quote:
Why is it measured in per 100 possessions? Who gives a shite about that.
The Pelicans are 9th in the league in opponent POINTS PER GAME. Isn't that the stat that really matters? The Pelicans are only averaging about 96 possessions per game.
Because PPG ignores pace. We didn't give up that many points last season because we ran a VERY slow offense, but our defense was terrible.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:51 pm to PKTiger
quote:
They hedge out aggressively in the pick and roll.
Yea, our PnR defense has been bad and all three guys have separate problems. Stiemsma is just slow getting there. Smith gets there but seems to do a little too much more often than not (i.e. sticking out his leg a little further than necessary, or riding the point guard just a second too long) and results in unnecessary fouls. AD has been a mixed bag. Never worried about him not getting there, but like we saw with bledsoe and even conley a few times, Ad focuses so much on that, that he gives them an easy lane to split the double team. He's done a better job and is not jumping it as far out as he was last year.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:58 pm to Fleur de Diable
They would probably be better if they downed screens and just forced the guard into the middle of the floor. That style of play may not force as many turnovers, but teams wouldn't get as many good looks as they do now.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:05 pm to PKTiger
Nice insights from you and Fleur.
Yep. I would trade a few TOs for less corner 3s and layups.
quote:
They would probably be better if they downed screens and just forced the guard into the middle of the floor. That style of play may not force as many turnovers, but teams wouldn't get as many good looks as they do now.
Yep. I would trade a few TOs for less corner 3s and layups.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:09 pm to PKTiger
quote:
It's mostly scheme. They hedge out aggressively in the pick and roll
Which is baffling given some of the personnel (Lopez, Smiht, Steimsma) and the terrible rotations. I can't believe the scheme calls for leaving a man open in the corner, but with each game I become more and more convinced.
If they want to hard hedge, Monty needs to watch lots of Miami tape.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:10 pm to corndeaux
He really needs to adopt either "Pels" or "Pellies" because reading Schwan type out "Pelicans" and "New Orleans" each time he refers to us is ridiculous.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:23 pm to corndeaux
quote:
If they want to hard hedge, Monty needs to watch lots of Miami tape.
Problem is, they (nor anyone else in the league) can play like Miami.
Bosh is one of the best in the league at hedging screens. And the Pels don't have two athletic wings with the basketball IQ of Lebron and Wade. Miami's unique personnel is what makes that scheme work for them.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:36 pm to PKTiger
Unique personnel may be understatement of the year
They couldn't save this article until we at least make it through a week of the season?
They couldn't save this article until we at least make it through a week of the season?
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:45 pm to PKTiger
quote:
Miami's unique personnel is what makes that scheme work for them.
The Pelicans have some ingredients that could mimic what they do. Davis can be better than Bosh. You're right about the IQ part and no one can out-athlete James and Wade, but Holiday, Gordon, Evans, and Aminu can be terrors on defense given their length and athleticism if unleashed properly.
I think the issue is more that Spoelstra has Monty beat in the coaching acumen category.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:51 pm to corndeaux
quote:
no one can out-athlete James and Wade
James I'll agree with. He's a freak of nature.
Wade? His body's giving up on him.
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:58 pm to teke184
quote:
Wade? His body's giving up on him
It is. And he looked busted up in the playoffs at times.
But he put up 21/5/5 with 2 steals and 1 block a night on 52% FG last season. Plus he is still a master at playing passing lanes and hunting for steals.
I think you're right that he won't have enough juice for a 3peat.
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