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Twitter IPO

Posted on 11/5/13 at 7:21 am
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7915 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 7:21 am
I think I'll stay away for this one the first few months. One never knows for sure, but the valuation at a $25 IPO is 11.8 times estimated 2014 sales. FB was at 11.4 times it's price to sales ratio at IPO.

LINK

Having said that, with IPO's it is hard to tell what the heck is going to happen. FB dropped 50% in its first three months on the market, but has gone up over 100% since June.

With the amount of volatility in IPO's, any position should be treated as speculative. A position should also be a small % of total worth.
Posted by ShubutaMS
5682 posts
Member since Aug 2013
1434 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 8:09 am to
quote:

I think I'll stay away for this one the first few months. One never knows for sure,
quote:

with IPO's it is hard to tell what the heck is going to happen



Solid analysis. I will log this info in my new information part of the brain.
Posted by Dooshay
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29879 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 8:28 am to
I still can't figure out why twitter is a thing. I don't think it would have a lot of gas if celebrities didn't tweet stupid stuff, but if that's the case then it should take off.
Posted by TheDiesel
Phoenix
Member since Feb 2010
2608 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 8:51 am to
Are you just thinking out loud?
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7915 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 9:00 am to
Just showing the price to sales position for twitter compared to FB. We all know what happened to FB after IPO.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50337 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 9:11 am to
Twitter's big problem is that a VAST majority of its use is on mobile. I think something like 80+%. Facebook had a hard time generating mobile ad revenue and they have less utilization of their website on mobile. Twitter is basically exclusively dependent on generating mobile ad revenue. Facebook seems to have fixed the problem. The big question is can Twitter do they same.

I think the big thing for them is their product is more business involved. So people actually like using twitter to interact with business by following them and keeping up new releases, products, etc. Facebook on the other hand is more of a social environment where you care about keeping up with your family and friends.
Posted by reb13
Member since May 2010
10905 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 9:49 am to
I think the problem with these social media companies ads are that they are always for obscure useless things. I think ads would work on social media if they were less spammy and more like TV ads. The problem with twitter vs Facebook is that Facebook has many more avenues to display ads(feed, side panels, etc). The only place to see ads on twitter is on your feed and cluttering your feed will turn people off. This is the same for Instagram.
This post was edited on 11/5/13 at 9:50 am
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53151 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 10:19 am to
quote:

The problem with twitter vs Facebook is that Facebook has many more avenues to display ads(feed, side panels, etc).


Yeah, but a majority of people access the FB platform from the mobile app. That was why the IPO bombed, they were having an extremely hard time with pulling in revenues on the mobile platform, which is where they needed them from. FB has coped with that, and they've managed to cash in on the mobile ad revenue. Twitter will have to deal with the same issue, only thing, since FB has a much larger user base than Twitter, Twitter does have a growth opportunity in users to grow revenue, whereas FB's only option was to grow revenues per user since they are surely near market saturation.


ETA: didn't see barry's post. spot on.
This post was edited on 11/5/13 at 10:20 am
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28703 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Twitter's big problem is that a VAST majority of its use is on mobile. I think something like 80+%. Facebook had a hard time generating mobile ad revenue and they have less utilization of their website on mobile. Twitter is basically exclusively dependent on generating mobile ad revenue. Facebook seems to have fixed the problem. The big question is can Twitter do they same.

I think the big thing for them is their product is more business involved. So people actually like using twitter to interact with business by following them and keeping up new releases, products, etc. Facebook on the other hand is more of a social environment where you care about keeping up with your family and friends.

I don't know if they already do this with their promoted tweets or not, but location-aware tweets would be extremely profitable. Your phone always knows where you are, so you might get tweets from local establishments offering sales or coupons. You might see tweets from restaurants at meal times, or you might get special offers from stores if you're at the mall or whatever.

I think Twitter has a much better platform for mobile advertising than Facebook does.
Posted by Dooshay
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29879 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 11:39 am to
I agree.

You keep up with family and friends on fb.

You keep up with celebrities, businesses, news outlets, etc. on twitter.

I can't figure out why people use it because I go out of my way to avoid that sort of useless info.
Posted by econ85
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

I still can't figure out why twitter is a thing.


I have my twitter feed setup to show economic news and options/futures plays.

In the long run, I think twitter has more value than facebook.
Posted by Dooshay
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29879 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

I have my twitter feed setup to show economic news and options/futures plays.


admittedly it is good for that, but i've had rss feeds set up for that type of stuff before twitter was around.
Posted by econ85
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 2:14 pm to
I follow a couple of bloggers that tweet option plays based on technical analysis. If something makes sense I'll make a trade. I made $1500 today on one of their tips.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7915 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 2:22 pm to
My only exposure to twitter has been a blogger that is discussing the grain market. I skim through it if I'm looking a starting a wheat, corn, or soybean position.
Posted by hawgfaninc
https://youtu.be/torc9P4-k5A
Member since Nov 2011
46322 posts
Posted on 11/5/13 at 10:51 pm to
quote:

I follow a couple of bloggers that tweet option plays based on technical analysis.

what bloggers?
Posted by econ85
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts
Posted on 11/6/13 at 7:10 am to
@SlopeOfHope
@chessNwine
@upsidetrader
@philstockworld
Posted by GaryMyMan
Shreveport
Member since May 2007
13498 posts
Posted on 11/6/13 at 7:29 am to
Bookmarked. For the twitter investors to follow, not the stupid IPO.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 9:47 am
Posted by PelicanPoop
New Orleans
Member since Oct 2013
583 posts
Posted on 11/6/13 at 4:32 pm to
Looks like debut will be tomorrow after lunch.
Posted by hawgfaninc
https://youtu.be/torc9P4-k5A
Member since Nov 2011
46322 posts
Posted on 11/6/13 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

@SlopeOfHope
@chessNwine
@upsidetrader
@philstockworld

Posted by econ85
Member since Nov 2012
572 posts
Posted on 11/6/13 at 5:25 pm to
@philstockworld (Philstockworld.com)

Is by far the best. The dude is some sort of wizard.
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