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How would we do in World Cup qualifying in other confederations?
Posted on 10/11/13 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 2:37 pm
I've thought about this before, but looking at the standings in the UEFA region made me decide to post a thread here. How do people think we would do in other regions?
3
Posted on 10/11/13 at 2:40 pm to ohiovol
We would win Asia and Oceania
We would be one of the top 5 teams in Africa, but the way qualification is set up there, the best don't necessarily qualify.
Probably would fight for 4th in CONMEBOL. In UEFA, we would never be a group favorite, but could possibly sneak into the 2nd place playoff.
We would be one of the top 5 teams in Africa, but the way qualification is set up there, the best don't necessarily qualify.
Probably would fight for 4th in CONMEBOL. In UEFA, we would never be a group favorite, but could possibly sneak into the 2nd place playoff.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 2:42 pm to ohiovol
I feel like we would almost be a lock in Asia. The OFC is hardly worth discussing. CAF qualifying seems sketchy, but I think we would be fine unless we got screwed in the draw.
CONMEBOL is obviously a bit tougher. I think we would qualify more often than not, but drop some home games and it gets tough.
UEFA is the one with most variation. I see groups we would be winning and groups where we would have to battle for second.
CONMEBOL is obviously a bit tougher. I think we would qualify more often than not, but drop some home games and it gets tough.
UEFA is the one with most variation. I see groups we would be winning and groups where we would have to battle for second.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 2:44 pm to Broski
quote:
In UEFA, we would never be a group favorite, but could possibly sneak into the 2nd place playoff.
We may not be the favorite, but I see groups where we would be winning right now.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:00 pm to ohiovol
We would have qualified a year ago in all of them.
In all seriousness, basically what everyone else has said. Would win AFC and OFC, qualify in CONMEBOL and CAF, and depends on the group in UEFA.
In all seriousness, basically what everyone else has said. Would win AFC and OFC, qualify in CONMEBOL and CAF, and depends on the group in UEFA.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 3:10 pm to pvilleguru
I don't think we'd be a lock to qualify in CONMEBOL or Africa. We COULD qualify out of any of the confederations.
I like CONCACAF though, being a shark in a pond full of goldfish suits us well.
I like CONCACAF though, being a shark in a pond full of goldfish suits us well.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:13 pm to ohiovol
quote:
UEFA is the one with most variation.
Definitely.
Overall, I would probably go with CONMEBOL (with Brazil) as being the toughest. Enough really excellent teams to occupy the qualifying positions. Can't hide from anyone. Going on the road fricking sucks.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:20 pm to joey barton
quote:
CONMEBOL (with Brazil) as being the toughest
agreed.
Half the continent qualifies, but every team would be more than capable of beating us.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 4:55 pm to joey barton
quote:
UEFA is the one with most variation.
Definitely.
Overall, I would probably go with CONMEBOL (with Brazil) as being the toughest. Enough really excellent teams to occupy the qualifying positions. Can't hide from anyone. Going on the road fricking sucks.
Both COMNEBOL and UEFA are far and away the most difficult but I think Europe is the toughest as evidenced simply by the sheer number of very solid teams that don't qualify many cycles (Russia, Belgium, Turkey, Sweden, Switzerland, Serbia etc).
I agree with how tough the road matches are in COMNEBOL but places like Serbia and Russia are no cake walk either.
I'd think we'd do very well to actually win a UEFA group once every 4 cycles:
To win a group we'd first need a lucky draw that avoids Spain, Germany, Italy, Holland in any cycle and hope we can beat Portugal, France, Belgium, England etc the 50% of the time we avoid those first four.
So, in 3/4 cycles we'd be trying to finish 2nd and then have to win a playoff knockout against another team pretty close to our level.
I think in UEFA we'd probably make 2 of every 5 World Cups.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 5:17 pm to wm72
quote:
I think in UEFA we'd probably make 2 of every 5 World Cups.
I think that's too low.
I think we would be winning Group E, G, and H right now, and I think we would be in second place in Group B, C, and D. We would do well to finish second place in Groups A, F, and I, but I certainly think a second place finish would be possible in each one.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 6:39 pm to ohiovol
quote:
I think we would be winning Group E, G, and H right now
This is where we probably diverge a bit.
I think we could win those groups but it'd be more 60/40 that we'd win a group with Switzerland or Bosnia/Greece or England/Ukraine/Poland/Montenegro and not close to a given.
quote:
and I think we would be in second place in Group B, C, and D.
Here, I tend to think the same as above. We very well could be in second place ahead of teams like Denmark, Czech Rep, Sweden and Turkey but I don't think we would more do that more than, say 2/3 times.
It's all those "coulds" instead of "woulds" that makes me think we'd end up in 50/50 knockout playoffs against a pretty strong teams 2/3 of the time and finish 3rd and not advance from group fairly often too.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:07 pm to wm72
quote:
Serbia and Russia are no cake walk either.
Certainly, but there are teams like Ecuador and Bolivia that have truly unique environments in addition to virtually every team producing a really shitty environment to play in.
I think that think both arenas would, regardless, have us essentially competing head-to-head against some really good teams with a couple of excellent, game-winning players. I think that it really boils down to where you find CONMEBOL on the continuum from "easy" UEFA groups to almost impossible UEFA groups.
I don't disagree with any of your points and think that the strength of CONMEBOL's fringe teams would probably be the decider between the two confederations during any given cycle.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:22 pm to joey barton
quote:
I think that it really boils down to where you find CONMEBOL on the continuum from "easy" UEFA groups to almost impossible UEFA groups.
COMNEBOL group stage is much tougher than any UEFA group. However, you only have to finish fourth in the COMNEBOL group and not first and if you finish 5th in COMNEBOL you get a much easier knockout than the 2nd place UEFA teams get. It's really the quality of the knockout opponent that makes the difference for me.
It comes down to picking your poison: finish ahead of, say, Ecuador & Paraguay or finish ahead of Czech Republic & Sweden but then have to face Greece or Bosnia in a UEFA knockout instead of a Middle Eastern/Asian side.
I'm glad we don't have to deal with either one of them though.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:26 pm to wm72
quote:there have been some shitshow Comnebol qualification stages as well. Lest anyone forget.
COMNEBOL group stage
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:32 pm to wm72
I agree. That was what my last sentence was alluding to. I wouldn't want to ever see the US have to compete against (inserting Brazil) present-day Uruguay, Ecuador, and Chile for 1.5 spots, especially after having to go to Quito. However, there are cycles where third or fourth in CONMEBOL would seem to be much easier to achieve than the first or second position in the overwhelming majority of UEFA groups.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:32 pm to Dandy Lion
quote:
there have been some shitshow Comnebol qualification stages as well. Lest anyone forget.
I agree that it's not always as good as it currently is with Colombia and Uruguay being in such a purple patch.
I just meant that if you compare the group head to head with only one of the UEFA groups you always have Brazil, Argentina + some other very strong sides like Chile, Uruguay etc.
However, the difference is not having to finish ahead of any of those sides to at least get into a playoff with weaker confederation.
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:36 pm to wm72
Not directed at you, but I remember when all the traditional powers were down, way down, and Bolivia was scaring people.
Some people on this board think Brazil and Argentina are perennial world beaters, and Uruguay has always been overachieving, with respect to the size of the country.
ETA Chile, has traditionally been hot garbage.
Some people on this board think Brazil and Argentina are perennial world beaters, and Uruguay has always been overachieving, with respect to the size of the country.
ETA Chile, has traditionally been hot garbage.
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 10/11/13 at 7:55 pm to Dandy Lion
I would imagine that this was a much easier conversation when teams like Venezuela were fricking awful and Bolivia didn't know how to make La Paz a pain in the arse
This post was edited on 10/11/13 at 7:56 pm
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