re: AAPL getting crunched this morning, down almost 6%

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Okay, can somebody tell me where this sudden hate of ThaBigFella comes from?

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I don't know about hate, but having a know it all attitude with some pretty fricking absurd stances (which are not a matter of opinion....they are mathmatically indefensible) is not a good combo.

My opinion of appl (I'm a big fan):

Apple is looking into expansion on two fronts.

First is the china deal. Introduction to the largest provider in the world and the $99 5c with a contract will grow their international sales without creating a bad rep for a poor quality phone. People in China seem to love US "style" and entertainment. This could backfire, but i see it creating a huge surge of sales.

Second, the mobile/online transaction and business community should salivate at the new biometric fingerprint security. Apple has always been rumored to be behind in the business/financial share of the mobile market due to security, but now they have what can be viewed as the most secure form of transactions if the fingerprint thing is mostly functional the way it's being received.

So apple gets grief for a "lack of innovation" but they continue their success. People complain of the closed system and the diminishing market share, but they continue to create quality phones/products and find ways to impress. People predicting their imminent demise remind me of those predicting a Wall Street crash, one day it'll probably happen, but with as much cash and following as they have, it probably won't be a result of anything outside of some unimaginable tech replacing their appearance as the "it" company or some huge mistake.

I predict appl to reach 530 or 540 by November.

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First is the china deal. Introduction to the largest provider in the world and the $99 5c with a contract will grow their international sales without creating a bad rep for a poor quality phone. People in China seem to love US "style" and entertainment. This could backfire, but i see it creating a huge surge of sales.

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AAPL has competition probably even greater than Android in China from Xiaomi. It will be a sales driver but not the levels they are used to seeing.

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Second, the mobile/online transaction and business community should salivate at the new biometric fingerprint security. Apple has always been rumored to be behind in the business/financial share of the mobile market due to security, but now they have what can be viewed as the most secure form of transactions if the fingerprint thing is mostly functional the way it's being received.

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While AAPL does have a head start on the fingerprint technology they don't have a water tight control over the patents. I also don't expect fingerprints to be the 'end all be all' for mobile to mobile security, simply because people use each other's cards all the time and sometimes its difficult to constantly add and take off certain user fingerprints from the database for bank accounts/cards.

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People complain of the closed system and the diminishing market share, but they continue to create quality phones/products and find ways to impress.

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That's the key here. Nobody is predicting their imminent demise, but their diminishing market share and potential pressure on margins does not oblige a $500 stock. Their debt has also has been horrible since issuance, massively underperforming similar credit and Treasuries, especially at the long end.

Market positions, yes. Balance sheet, no. It's pretty hard to have balance sheet concerns over a company with over $100B in cash and only $17B in debt.

The quip on their debt was mainly just to show market expectations compared to what they're currently priced at. I remember arguing with a poster that the +100 OAS they issued their 30's at was ridiculous, and apparently the market ended up agreeing over the past couple months.

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Second, the mobile/online transaction and business community should salivate at the new biometric fingerprint security.

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I think this is the most interesting piece of the puzzle. The issue with using a fingerprint for validation outside of the phone software (banks, stores, etc.) is that it would make that fingerprint available to those services' servers and associated with the owner of the print. Not only is this dangerous due to hackers, but fraud could become prevalent. A person doesn't need to be conscious to put their finger to the scanner.

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A person doesn't need to be conscious to put there finger to the scanner

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The risk of this is very low. It's just as easy to put a gun to someone head today and force them to give up their password.

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but you have forgotten more about investing than I know...

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Ehhh....that's the beauty of finance, a person with all the wrong reasons can be right and a person with all the right reasons can be wrong. Prices can only go three ways: up, down, sideways. I wouldn't put too much stock in my "knowledge".

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AAPL does have competition in China, but up to this point hasn't had access to the biggest market for mobile devices. This will naturally provide them an increase in sales and new AAPL fans. Also compatibility between devices will boost sales of muscic, apps, ipods, macs and whatever else they sell in the future. Seems like nothing but a huge step to me... maybe I'm wrong, but AAPL makes a good product and competes well.

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Revenue is a given, its more the proportional share of revenue between companies that is most important. Remember that the end result we're talking about here is return on investment, not in an absolute but a relative sense. If investors believe they'll get a higher ROI from Samsung than Apple, they'll buy Samsung. It's a closed system, people win and people lose. The median income for the growing middle class in China still supports that lower priced manufacturers rather than Apple. Yes this is in theory, forward looking, and I could be completely incorrect. However, the current trends we're seeing in the composition of the new Chinese middle class is very leveraged. The old Chinese saving style from the 60's through the 90's isn't the trend we're seeing with the younger Chinese where they will lever up way beyond their means. Eventually this will catch up to them (as well as their regional debt but that's a completely different topic), and this over the long run supports a RNB99 priced smart phone that can do 80% of a RNB200 smartphone.

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Agreed, but they could become the most reliable means of using biometric security based on their head start and suppression of copycats. This could allow them to fix functionality problems and make it more user friendly. I know I said could twice, but nobody else is really introducing this option for secure online purchases yet.

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Understand the assumptions and I agree to a point. It's just kind of like my view on crypto currency, yea it will have a place but it won't be the primary medium of exchange similar to fingerprints won't be the primary method of security (although I believe fingerprints will have more of a place in security, I hope I didn't turn on the bat signal).

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Lot's of people say "get out now" and "AAPL is over." I ignore them.

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As you should, those people let emotion run decisions. That's very dangerous.

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My final thought is that AAPL will likely not stay lower than the 490 range based on Karl Ichan's investment. He is not going to lose that much money. What would kill AAPL's stock is if he or another big share holder dumped it and started to criticize.

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This is the key:

Finance is the beautiful profession of taking a simple concept and making it complicated. All that matters is how much of it is there and how many people want to buy it. AAPL keets buying back shares and hedge funds have huge positions in the stock. That alone should buoy price, but the problem that is created is you have big portions in the hands of a few. You get a couple funds putting blocks on for bids you can get some huge movements, as was seen earlier this year. I'm not necesarrily bearish on the company itself, AAPL will be around for a very long time. I'm more bearish on returns going forward compared to the past.

Why Apple's 64-bit iPhone chip is a bigger deal than you think

iOS is about to go beyond post-PC

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I'm more bearish on returns going forward compared to the past.

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Seems to be the market sentiment.

Our AAPL position is up enough that we're trying to hold it for LTCGs. If we can get to next summer at 500, that would be fine.

OTOH, I find WallSt's apparent presumptions that Apple has "nothing in the pipeline" breathtaking. Likewise, AAPL valuation, compared to other techs, is simply inexplicable.