re: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale oil well sets record (for TMS) - 1540

I was under the impression that it is not so much a bust but will just take some time to develop. Wont be until the easier more economical shales, EF & ND, get developed and until we have higher, more stable prices. I can see one of the bigger companies in a couple of years come in and buy up Goodrich or another after they are near bankrupted themselves working the kinks out.

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Goodrich did good on the Crosby well but seems to have been doing a lot of experimenting on wells since then. I think they had a plan from the beginning but wanted to test a bunch of different strategies before settling on a method and going all in. Their recent stock fall and unhappy investors may be making them show their hand a little early but only time will tell.

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They haven't so much been experimenting as they have been trying to troubleshoot mechanical problems. They have had trouble drilling the laterals, and lately they have had problems with the wells plugging up during flow back. If these issues are because of the rock and Goodrich cannot engineer something to address them then they are in serious trouble. Each time the bit gets stuck costs rise significantly. When the wells plug up EUR goes down and costs also rise. These issues have been crushing to the economics of these wells. Take 10-12 million dollars and divide by 70 (possibly generous but that's close to what Goodrich probably nets after royalties, severance if MS, purchasers take) and you will see how many barrels these wells require to reach payout. Bump that total well cost to 14 million or more and things get tight.

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The play doesn't work...Goodrich is toast.

Regarding HK, Floyd was in the right place at the right time and made the right decision with Petrohawk...it's a different world now and IMV he's made all the wrong decisions this go-round.

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I was essentially agreeing with you in my earlier responses. I refrained from detailing the actual stories from some people I know who used to work for Goodrich. They were of the opinion that Goodrich was sunk many months ago.

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Not so much from what I'm hearing as of an hour ago. Better jump on fast

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You cant say something like that without a link, details, or at least a hint.

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A few of the wells in the TMS are on my property and I can tell you from what I have seen personally, the play does work.

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It makes oil but I think what he was alluding to is well costs. Breakeven is pretty high on a 12 million or more dollar well, and these last few that have IP'd around 500 BOPD due to mechanical issues aren't going to cut it.

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Regarding HK, Floyd was in the right place at the right time and made the right decision with Petrohawk...it's a different world now and IMV he's made all the wrong decisions this go-round.

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I bought some HK completely in the dark before it was even HK (when it was still RAM and they announced Floyd's involvement). I was a little late to the party and bought at the top. I've lost 75% so far. Thankfully, I knew it was super speculative and barely put any money in it at all. I only bought as much as I would be willing to take to the casino, but I know a few people that I'm pretty sure sank a lot more cash into it.

Slight spinoff:

Does anyone know of any TMS related activity in Tangipahoa Parish right now? The information that I can find online is often spotty and outdated. I'm guessing that Tangi is low on the priority list in the entire TMS because of the geology, but I really can't find any good info.

Anyone know of any leases in Tangi? I ask because we have about 100 acres of family land near Amite, LA. Right now, it seems that the only value is the timber on the land, but I might have the opportunity to buy out other family members in the near future. Any thoughts?

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The thing tha scares me is the repeated problems that Goodrich keeps getting into with the completion of the wells. I think it is problems that they are bringing upon themselves.

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Except everyone has them.

But, yes, someday the play may work, but I think it's going to require a lot of science and likely a technological advancement...I wouldn't count on Goodrich for any of that.

Tangi isn't in the play.

And a story about Sanchez to highlight the play. The Sanchez position was initially owned by the pvt Sanchez family company....the family is out of Laredo. The Sanchez family also has a public company that owns eagle ford AC. Last year the pvt company sold the public company it's TMS for way above mkt pricing and retained an ORRI. Basically they took public $$$ and put it in their pvt pockets.