5th pick PPR league help! | TigerDroppings.com

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GiveMeTheBigOne
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2011
311 posts

5th pick PPR league help!


Alright fellas. Looking for opinions on who to take with the 5th pick in my PPR league. After asking around, looks like first 4 picks will be:
1. AP
2. Foster
3. Brees
4. Martin

I can't imagine passing on Calvin, as he's the best and safest pick here, but after doing mocks, Rb is so thin that I'd struggle getting even 1 quality back. A little league history... Rbs fly off the board in first 2 rounds with some tards always reaching early for qbs. Rounds 2-5 will be 75% wrs







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CQQ
New Orleans Saints Fan
LC
Member since Feb 2006
11287 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

3. Brees



I'd take the risk on Charles in fat Andy's system






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AmosMosesAndTwins
New Orleans Saints Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
12402 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


I think you gotta go Charles or McCoy.





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MrWiseGuy
USA Fan
Member since Dec 2009
13214 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

I think you gotta go Charles or McCoy.


And not Ray Rice?

OP, you say Calvin is your safest option, how is Rice not the safest option if you're looking to go RB?

He's caught 60+ passes every year for the last four years and has 21 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons.

To me, he is the epitome of safe.



This post was edited on 7/22 at 9:28 am


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GiveMeTheBigOne
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2011
311 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Because rice lost touches last year, how many more will he lose this year? Plus the fact that its a PPR I think Calvin is either #1 or 2 in non qb points.
I do think rice is the least risky RB after ap and foster though, but about 3rd or 4th high point potential






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PortCityTiger24
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Dec 2006
64924 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

3. Brees



I'd take the risk on Charles in fat Andy's system


So you would rather take a risk on a guy at #3 over all but laugh at someone taking a guy who will finish top 2-3 in scoring?

Makes sense



This post was edited on 7/22 at 9:37 am


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AmosMosesAndTwins
New Orleans Saints Fan
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
12402 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

And not Ray Rice?


I love Ray Ray, but I'm taking JC or LM if in this position.






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MrWiseGuy
USA Fan
Member since Dec 2009
13214 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Rice got 75% of the team carries last season. He catches 60+ balls a year and gets the GL carries.

Like Rice Shady has a good backup to divide carries with in Brown; with Charles you have to worry about GL touches.

Rice is your safest pick.



This post was edited on 7/22 at 9:41 am


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GynoSandberg
LA-Lafayette Fan
Member since Jan 2006
34453 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


I don't think GL carries matter in Charles case. He doesn't need them. shite McCoy scored 20 in this offense. Wonder how many were goal line?

But for me you are splitting hairs w him and rice. Pierce impact is one of those overstated things fantasy people say to pretend they know what they're talking about.

Speaking of McCoy, he's going to burn people this year. Already having knee troubles and Kelly is expected to lead the NFL in rush attempts. If you take him you have to reach on Bryxe Brown in like the 4th






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ShoeBang
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since May 2012
4617 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Gotta go Ray Rice or Jamaal here.

I'd say rice since its PPR and dude catches 50-60 a year easy






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RollTigers
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
3082 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Bro, Ray Rice. Someone is taking Brees over Rice?





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LooseCannon22282
South Alabama Fan
Mobile, AL
Member since May 2008
14500 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

Someone is taking Brees over Rice?


in one of the leagues I played in last year, Brees scored 364 points and Ray Rice scored 283.







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RollTigers
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
3082 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Is that a standard scoring but 6 pts/passing TD league?





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Cherokee Chinstrap
Georgia Fan
Earth, Milky Way Galaxy
Member since Nov 2012
1865 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Given the information that you have provided I would go with
5A. Rice


5C. Charles
5D. Megatron

Rice is the closest thing to a sure thing as far as catches out of the backfield considering past 3 seasons he has amassed 78,63,76,61 receptions. Yes, Rice will have his TD's vultured by Bernard Pierce but he is guaranteed to get his touches week in and week out. As far as consistency, Rice had 3 or more receptions in 13 games last season.

Charles is also a decent pick here because of Fat Andy's system (see Westbrook/Shady)but also remember that his QB is Alex Smith and that Bowe is the only legit WR threat in the offense which will allow defenses to focus on him. Maybe McCluster can develop into a true slot WR but I just don't expect too much from the Chiefs in fat boy's first year.

Megatron is a monster, a force who cannot be stopped but taking him at 5 is a little too early for me given what you have said about how RB's fly off the board. If this is a snake draft you will be able to pick up an elite WR in the second round with your pick (Bmarsh or AJ).

With that being said I would not touch McCoy with a 10 ft. pole PPR or not. I don't expect Bryce Brown to supplant him, but he could do some damage as far as overall touches go. Don't get me wrong McCoy is extremely talented but there is way too much uncertainty for me to gamble on him at 5.

TLDR: Rice is on a different tier than everyone else available especially for a PPR scoring system






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St Augustine
New Orleans Saints Fan
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
42196 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


I like Charles a lot in that spot. I'd try to snag an elite wr and get reggie to pair in like the 4th. Forte should also catch a ton of balls if he's there in the 2nd.


This post was edited on 7/22 at 10:40 am


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LooseCannon22282
South Alabama Fan
Mobile, AL
Member since May 2008
14500 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


no.

PPR.

4 points for a passing TD.

Passing yards= 25 yards per point.

Brees threw for 5177 yards and 43 TD's, also had a rushing TD.

He's a beast.



This post was edited on 7/22 at 10:42 am


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GynoSandberg
LA-Lafayette Fan
Member since Jan 2006
34453 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Charles catches 40 balls a year Pre Reid.

McCoy is coming off seasons of
78 48 54.

Chalres will probably see a nice bump in catches.

Also, KC OL is one of the best in the league.







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RollTigers
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
3082 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


Wow.

Still, I don't think it's safe to rely on Brees having a third season in a row like that. And in a 12-team league, Andy Dalton is your replacement-level QB for VAR, and he was only 100 points behind. On the other hand, replacement RB for Rice would be McGahee/Ballard/Woodhead, which are all more than 100 point dropoffs (especially in PPR).

So while Brees is undoubtedly excellent, if you're considering VAR he's not as valuable as Rice.






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LooseCannon22282
South Alabama Fan
Mobile, AL
Member since May 2008
14500 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

And in a 12-team league, Andy Dalton is your replacement-level QB for VAR, and he was only 100 points behind. On the other hand, replacement RB for Rice would be McGahee/Ballard/Woodhead, which are all more than 100 point dropoffs (especially in PPR).


yeah, I got you.

quote:

Still, I don't think it's safe to rely on Brees having a third season in a row like that.


who knows? A few seasons ago when the Saints had the #6 ranked rushing attack, he still fired 46 TD's and threw for over 5400 yards.

so the whole thing about the "more emphasis on the running game" stuff doesn't really apply in my opinion. The Saints throw it early and often.

I wouldn't bet against him.



This post was edited on 7/22 at 11:03 am


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ShoeBang
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since May 2012
4617 posts

re: 5th pick PPR league help!


quote:

in one of the leagues I played in last year, Brees scored 364 points and Ray Rice scored 283.


That's great and all when you look at it as pure points scored versus another player. But I look at it this way:

Let's say Brees goes 5th overall in a standard scoring league. He scored 345 in my league last year. That's an average of 21.5 PPG

Matthew Stafford will be a 3-5th round pick in most leagues I'd imagine. He scored 275 last year for an average of 17.18 PPG

Thats a difference of roughly 4.5 PPG.

------------------

That being said, let's look at 1st and 4th round RBs by comparison.

Ray Rice scored 222 in my league last season for an average of 13.8 PPG. He will go in the mid-late first round in most drafts this year.

Now, in the 4th round, the RB pickings will be slim. Most leagues require you to have 2 starting RBs. All your top tier guys will be gone and you'll have to hope to get a guy like say, BenJarvis. He scored 151 last season for an average of 9.1.

Thats a difference of 4.7 PPG.


In my opinion, if you skip a top tier RB (of which you generally need to start 2), in favor of a QB who will net you only 3-5 PPG more than a 2nd or 3rd tier guy, you hamstring your team. You points per position started will be down overall.


I don;t know about you guys, but I would much rather have:

Ray Rice
Stevan Ridley
Andy Dalton

Here there is no "reaching" in the third round for a mediocre(at best) RB in the third round when you could be getting an above average WR or TE at this position.

Than to have

Drew Brees
Matt Forte
Rashard Mendenhall (you'll have to reach for a RB2 in round 3 IMO)

TL:DR?

Reaching for QBs, more often than not, hampers your team in the long run over a season IMO. I've seen it happen many times and I've even done it a few times before I learned my lesson. Now that I ignore QBs in the first round as a rule, I have made the playoffs 4 straight seasons and won the league one time.






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