Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue? | TigerDroppings.com

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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?



First Valero missed, now marathon warned of a weak second quarter. I personally have had my eye on PSX for a while and dove in today down another 3% today at $57.50 from a few weeks ago at $66 and trading at a cheap 7x earnings. What are your thoughts on the refiners? Time to buy or time run?


This post was edited on 7/16 at 12:19 pm



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ell_13
USA Fan
Alex Box
Member since Apr 2013
24570 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


I'm young and looking very long term: I'm always a buyer.

You are in a much different situation so...

I guess I'm just upping my post count.



This post was edited on 7/16 at 12:24 pm


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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


well ell, if you truly believe that PSX looks super cheap now, its down 15% or so off its high of the year, and its trading under 8x earnings and its a big favorite of warren buffett. Doesn't get much better than that. It just seems the refiners are getting smashed recently and I really was curious what others thought. They don't seem to have much downside at these levels.


This post was edited on 7/16 at 12:47 pm


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raw dog
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
326 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


Crack spreads are shrinking with this rise in crude as of late.





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ell_13
USA Fan
Alex Box
Member since Apr 2013
24570 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


I defer to you Big Fella. On paper, you're right. Looks too easy, which almost makes me cautious. Almost!





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LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
5222 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


Long term I like the chemical industry much more than the refining industry, but I still think refining will do well.

Having said that, crude oil prices have been volatile lately. In the past year there have been 5 moves (or changes from going up/down) in WTIC of $15 dollars or more. When refiners are buying crude 2-6 weeks before they sale the gas/diesel/jet fuel/kerosene etc reversals of that magnitude and frequency eat into margins.

I think it's a short term (6 months to a year) problem.






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ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


Thanks for the input man..





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Nobs
LSU Fan
Pearland, Tx
Member since Dec 2010
282 posts

re: Refiners are getting beat up....is this short term or do we have a big issue?


High oil prices hurt oil companies that are predominately refiners or those that split their upstream and downstream in to separate businesses.

Valero having no upstream piece hurts them. Actually, with the amount of capital they expend on upkeep of those shitty refineries they buy, I really have no idea how they every turn a profit.

Marathon is reeling from the purchase of that abomination of a refinery in Texas City from BP.

IMHO, they are all still buys for a long term holding. The oil price is going to stabilize in the upcoming years and settle in at $70-80 range based on all the forecast our internal folks are presenting. It's the number we are using to justify all our capital expenditures in downstream over the next decade. We being Shell.






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