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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 6/23/13 at 5:07 am to mach316
quote:
I can't figure why apple has dropped this much.
Read Big Fella post. He hit it on spot.
Posted on 6/23/13 at 9:20 am to fishfighter
Big Fella does make some good points. Thanks..
Posted on 6/23/13 at 10:33 am to mach316
quote:
Sold mine a few months ago.
same here
Posted on 6/23/13 at 10:36 am to ThaBigFella
quote:
ThaBigFella
you bring some excellent analysis to this board. Just bought some PM (Philip Morris International into my portfolio because of your insight
Posted on 6/23/13 at 10:42 am to tiger perry
Thanks Tiger Perry FWIW, I know apple will be fine,they're not going bankrupt they have close to $200B in the bank and their next product release will be a smash hit. It's just a matter of when will that happen....
Like I said before, there are a few catalysts on the horizon that could happen at anytime
1.China Mobile deal - the biggest phone carrier on the planet with over over 700M users,yes double the american population in phone users, doesnt subsidize the iphone currently. There's a plethora of reasons, a big one is the 4g network capability isn't there but they're building it out now, another big reason is china mobile won't give in to apple's demands, they're making money hand over fist without apple so they won't give in and pay apple what they want, pretty big F U to the biggest company on earth
2.A cheaper iphone - emerging market users cannot afford iphones which often cost much more overseas and typically don't have the subsidies we have here. We have nearly 7B people on this planet and the good majority can't afford an iphone, something cheaper could add alot more users and thus more users to the app store, win win all across
3.Apple TV - they talk about this alot and it just makes sense. I mean why would I ever go to redbox if i could just download it off my TV. I know the detachable console exists but it's different when it's built in. Im sure if they ever develop this it will look awesome and many will buy it but to this point there have been no announcements, just rumors stemming from a few things tim cook said.
If any of those things happen the stock will go up. I personally think apple is letting the stock slide on purpose so their newly announced $60B share buyback can be done on the cheap and to a bigger scale.
I just don't care about that type of risk/reward anymore, I have enough money now where I just wanna grow what I have conservatively and went another route, but Apple should be a decent investment moving forward.....Im pretty sure that Russian billionaire did his homework before sinking $100M a month ago.
Like I said before, there are a few catalysts on the horizon that could happen at anytime
1.China Mobile deal - the biggest phone carrier on the planet with over over 700M users,yes double the american population in phone users, doesnt subsidize the iphone currently. There's a plethora of reasons, a big one is the 4g network capability isn't there but they're building it out now, another big reason is china mobile won't give in to apple's demands, they're making money hand over fist without apple so they won't give in and pay apple what they want, pretty big F U to the biggest company on earth
2.A cheaper iphone - emerging market users cannot afford iphones which often cost much more overseas and typically don't have the subsidies we have here. We have nearly 7B people on this planet and the good majority can't afford an iphone, something cheaper could add alot more users and thus more users to the app store, win win all across
3.Apple TV - they talk about this alot and it just makes sense. I mean why would I ever go to redbox if i could just download it off my TV. I know the detachable console exists but it's different when it's built in. Im sure if they ever develop this it will look awesome and many will buy it but to this point there have been no announcements, just rumors stemming from a few things tim cook said.
If any of those things happen the stock will go up. I personally think apple is letting the stock slide on purpose so their newly announced $60B share buyback can be done on the cheap and to a bigger scale.
I just don't care about that type of risk/reward anymore, I have enough money now where I just wanna grow what I have conservatively and went another route, but Apple should be a decent investment moving forward.....Im pretty sure that Russian billionaire did his homework before sinking $100M a month ago.
This post was edited on 6/23/13 at 10:46 am
Posted on 6/23/13 at 11:01 am to ThaBigFella
Big Fella, I'm liking your ideas about buying stocks that will do well abroad that offer nice dividends like KO and PM. Any other suggestions like these that you feel are somewhat protected from economic turmoil?
Aslo, how do you feel about EFT's like the XLP that will also give you exposure to these companies with a nice dividend? TIA
Aslo, how do you feel about EFT's like the XLP that will also give you exposure to these companies with a nice dividend? TIA
Posted on 6/23/13 at 11:12 am to mach316
look at XLP top holding 3 holdings and 33% of their total portfolio....
procter gamble
coke
Phillip morris
haha.....
Look, like I said I don't index, that etf is nice it has a 2.69% yield, coke yields 2.82%,PM 3.92% and PG 3.11%.....why not buy those 3 together, seems like you'd get a 3.4% yield give or take.
That's almost a percent higher which I know doesn't sound like much but again think 30-40 years down the road and a 3M portfolio that near 1 percent is $25k/year more in dividend and there's no .18% management fee which on $3M is $5,400/year or me paying $450/month to have someone tell me to buy coke,phillip morris, and Procter gamble
These big money managers rely on the ignorance of the masses. I do my own homework, I respect their line of work, but I'm not giving someone that much money to basically buy what I can on my own. Sure they're better at timing and have inside information and know when to get in and out, but I do to, get in time is today, get out time....ill leave that to my heirs to decide when i die.
procter gamble
coke
Phillip morris
haha.....
Look, like I said I don't index, that etf is nice it has a 2.69% yield, coke yields 2.82%,PM 3.92% and PG 3.11%.....why not buy those 3 together, seems like you'd get a 3.4% yield give or take.
That's almost a percent higher which I know doesn't sound like much but again think 30-40 years down the road and a 3M portfolio that near 1 percent is $25k/year more in dividend and there's no .18% management fee which on $3M is $5,400/year or me paying $450/month to have someone tell me to buy coke,phillip morris, and Procter gamble
These big money managers rely on the ignorance of the masses. I do my own homework, I respect their line of work, but I'm not giving someone that much money to basically buy what I can on my own. Sure they're better at timing and have inside information and know when to get in and out, but I do to, get in time is today, get out time....ill leave that to my heirs to decide when i die.
This post was edited on 6/23/13 at 11:16 am
Posted on 6/23/13 at 11:23 am to ThaBigFella
Posted on 6/23/13 at 3:26 pm to ThaBigFella
oh, by the way, I manage a tobacco wholesale in Lafayette. We sell throughout Louisiana if you ever need our products, let me know
Posted on 6/24/13 at 11:15 am to Ace Midnight
I bought PM at $92.58. I wish I had procrastinated like usual.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 11:23 am to Jake88
That's the kind of shite that happens to me 
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:04 pm to mach316
Relax man $92.58 is a great price, a giant market sell off happened, what went up in the last week? nothing changed with the company... you realize you're getting an .85 dividend next week so your net price is $91.73 and then in september the dividend is going to $.96/quarter....in a year your net price will be $87...just relax investing isn't week to week, that's trading...your current price gives you a 4% yield in September. What's the yield on your bank account?
This post was edited on 6/24/13 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:06 pm to ThaBigFella
quote::|
$.96/quarter
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:15 pm to jimbeam
That's why I said I liked pm more than visa for the sell off factor now your high yield allows you to buy an even bigger stake at a lower price. That's why it's a win win in my book, price goes up you win, price goes down more shares at a lower price and higher income.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:47 pm to ThaBigFella
I'm actually relaxed about it. Your posts a couple weeks ago motivated me to buy PM, MCD and COP. That day I also heard that maybe Bernanke was getting cold feet about the taper and I got concerned that I'd be paying more if I didnt grab them then.
I'm in this for at least another 25 years and have bought and held XOM, PEP, HD, STT, CLX, JNJ, etc. for the last 11 years. It just would have been a bit more satisfactory to have grabbed it at less than 90.
I'm in this for at least another 25 years and have bought and held XOM, PEP, HD, STT, CLX, JNJ, etc. for the last 11 years. It just would have been a bit more satisfactory to have grabbed it at less than 90.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:48 pm to ThaBigFella
quote:
Relax man $92.58 is a great price, a giant market sell off happened, what went up in the last week? nothing changed with the company... you realize you're getting an .85 dividend next week so your net price is $91.73 and then in september the dividend is going to $.96/quarter....in a year your net price will be $87...just relax investing isn't week to week, that's trading...your current price gives you a 4% yield in September. What's the yield on your bank account?
This is where your analysis is brilliant - yes, there are opportunity costs, but, hang around long enough, those shares you buy today are free - and continuing to provide income for your entire life.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 12:56 pm to Jake88
You're right jake, look I would've loved to have known it was coming down to $86, I too bought at $92 bc I calculated the forward yield and loved the 4% that was coming in september.
I did buy more last week at $87/88 but I can't really time the market, nobody can. All I know is for me, its on sale at 10% off its highs of the year. The company is fundamentally the same, and the sell off is due to a general market sell off. I really think this price in the mid 80's is a steal, could a broader sell off make it lower? sure, but I don't wanna wait for a maybe, i buy when i have money, if, the price fits into my long term valuation of the company
The price will fall further tomorrow since its ex-div day fwiw
but with $6.23/share earnings projected for 2014 its trading at a very cheap 13.9x forward earnings with a 3.9% dividend, thats incredible for a company growing at the rate it's growing.Most growth stocks offer little to no dividend and trade at much higher valuations
1.visa
2.google
3.baidu
4.amazon
those are 4 i can think of off the top of my head as high growth companies and the valuations they trade at are staggering. PM is not like most blue chips in the fact it is still growing rapidly, most blue chips are very low growth, low dividend growth investments. The past 5 years, it's only 5 in existence as it's own entity have been very high growth and very high dividend growth for PM. I look for more of the same in the near future bc of the catalysts i listed earlier.
I did buy more last week at $87/88 but I can't really time the market, nobody can. All I know is for me, its on sale at 10% off its highs of the year. The company is fundamentally the same, and the sell off is due to a general market sell off. I really think this price in the mid 80's is a steal, could a broader sell off make it lower? sure, but I don't wanna wait for a maybe, i buy when i have money, if, the price fits into my long term valuation of the company
The price will fall further tomorrow since its ex-div day fwiw
but with $6.23/share earnings projected for 2014 its trading at a very cheap 13.9x forward earnings with a 3.9% dividend, thats incredible for a company growing at the rate it's growing.Most growth stocks offer little to no dividend and trade at much higher valuations
1.visa
2.google
3.baidu
4.amazon
those are 4 i can think of off the top of my head as high growth companies and the valuations they trade at are staggering. PM is not like most blue chips in the fact it is still growing rapidly, most blue chips are very low growth, low dividend growth investments. The past 5 years, it's only 5 in existence as it's own entity have been very high growth and very high dividend growth for PM. I look for more of the same in the near future bc of the catalysts i listed earlier.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 1:21 pm to ThaBigFella
quote:
but with $6.23/share earnings projected for 2014 its trading at a very cheap
The dividend is going to $0.93 per quarter in 2014, most likely.
Earnings will have to get to about $6.77 to support $4 per year in 2015, but that's only 8% growth - I'm optimistic.
Posted on 6/24/13 at 1:32 pm to Ace Midnight
Ace midnight, I pay monthly for fast graphs, which is one of the best tools on the planet for analyzing stocks. Their history of being correct is very accurate
This is what they have for PM over the next decade
2014 - $6.30 Earnings, $3.78/dividend
2015 - $7.01 Earnings, $4.21/dividend
2016 - $7.80 Earnings, $4.69/dividend
2017 - $8.69 Earnings, $5.22/dividend
2018 - $9.67 Earnings, $5.81/dividend
2019 - $10.76 Earnings, $6.46/dividend
2020 - $11.98 Earnings, $7.19/dividend
2021 - $13.33 Earnings, $8.01/dividend
2022 - $14.84 Earnings, $8.91/dividend
Projected 2015 fair price - $105.88
Projected 2022 fair price - $222.53
So from what they're projecting if you bought 1 share today and collected the dividend in cash and didn't reinvest those dividend, you'd get $55 in dividend reducing your effective price to $32 by 2022......obviously they won't be dead on, but I've used it for a long time, and they're pretty accurate on their estimates for quite some time
The thing with their dividend is the payout ratio, they payout 65% of earnings, lowest in the industry and growing rapidly, while most tobacco companies are in the 85-90% range, if PM get's there like many think it will later on this decade, look out $10+ dividends on current shares.
This is what they have for PM over the next decade
2014 - $6.30 Earnings, $3.78/dividend
2015 - $7.01 Earnings, $4.21/dividend
2016 - $7.80 Earnings, $4.69/dividend
2017 - $8.69 Earnings, $5.22/dividend
2018 - $9.67 Earnings, $5.81/dividend
2019 - $10.76 Earnings, $6.46/dividend
2020 - $11.98 Earnings, $7.19/dividend
2021 - $13.33 Earnings, $8.01/dividend
2022 - $14.84 Earnings, $8.91/dividend
Projected 2015 fair price - $105.88
Projected 2022 fair price - $222.53
So from what they're projecting if you bought 1 share today and collected the dividend in cash and didn't reinvest those dividend, you'd get $55 in dividend reducing your effective price to $32 by 2022......obviously they won't be dead on, but I've used it for a long time, and they're pretty accurate on their estimates for quite some time
The thing with their dividend is the payout ratio, they payout 65% of earnings, lowest in the industry and growing rapidly, while most tobacco companies are in the 85-90% range, if PM get's there like many think it will later on this decade, look out $10+ dividends on current shares.
This post was edited on 6/24/13 at 1:34 pm
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