Caveat Emptor for the Recruit - "Program on the Rise"

The recruitment of Robert Nkemdiche has been pretty interesting. It reminds me of the recruitment of Sam Montgomery. True, Montgomery wasn't the #1 overall recruited, but he was very highly rated. Like Nkemdiche, Montgomery for whatever reason wasn't interested in his home state schools. He flirted a little while with a historic SEC East power (Tennessee) but in the end it came down to an established power (LSU) and the program on the rise of that day (North Carolina). In fact, when Sam made his call, UNC was more credibly on the rise than Ole Miss is today. Butch Davis had them going places and was clearly amassing a talent base that was no where in line with UNC football rosters of the prior decades.

Yet Montgomery chose the established power and their track record of putting defensive linemen into the league. Montgomery watched Glenn Dorsey go in the top 5 the previous spring and all signs were that LSU DE Tyson Jackson would be a high first rounder (he ended up going third overall). Montgomery decided that he wanted that same tutelage, that same grooming and a more realistic shot at competing for championships. So Sam somewhat surprisingly picked LSU on national signing day 2009.

Flash forward four years and Montgomery is now expected to be himself a high first round pick. So too is fellow DE Barkevious Mingo, leaving a huge hole on LSU's depth chart. Would Sam be in this place if he chose UNC? To speculate would be foolish. It's a little like Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken." But we do know this: at LSU Sam Montgomery got to win an SEC title and play for a national title. He had a stable environment playing for arguably the best defensive coordinator and best defensive line coaches in the country. And the result is a storied college career, with titles and memories of big games that everyone around the country was watching. At UNC, he would have had to go through a grease fire. He would have had to endure coaching changes and tutelage no where near as effective as what he got from Brick and Chief. And he would not have been on national TV, playing in games that mattered. He would not have played for championships.

No, I am not saying that Ole Miss is going to be plagued in scandal (although I will note that dormant programs who suddenly start making noise and nabbing recruits tend to be more cavalier with the rules which, if unchecked, can quickly slide into lack of institutional control). I'm just noting that recruits should not discount the importance of playing for a school and a coaching staff that have proven their competency at training their players for the League, for getting their players highly drafted and highly paid and for having a stable environment, where a tremendous talent can evolve into the type of player that Sam Montgomery has become.

In contrast, lots of talented players have taken the risk on programs "on the rise." And those programs are more more susceptible to instability, which can lead to second tier coaching and which can result in a player not achieving all of the potential he has. And Recruits--particularly those who can pick whatever school they want--should not discount the risk of a program that has no real history of success in half a century. If things go bad at that type of school, the whole thing can devolve quickly and while it may not be fatal, to say it will not impact your development as a player or your entire college experience is to be the very definition of naive.

In the end, logic would dictate that if you have the opportunity to follow a well tread path (Spears-Dorsey-Jackson-Brockers-Montgomery-Mingo) to not only become a high NFL draft pick but also to compete on the national stage for championships, you would never pass that up for a program with a little momentum right now but where you find yourself saying "and even if it doesn't work out I'm good enough to make the league."

Sam Montgomery was smart enough to realize that. The question is, will Nkemdiche?