SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick | TigerDroppings.com
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Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
15300 posts

SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick

quote:



We track what we call Correlation to Victory each week and each season at CHFF Insider. And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games. And they win more often as the games get bigger and more important.

Teams with a higher passer rating:
• went 209-46 (.820) in 2012
• are an incredible 47-5 (.904) since Week 15
• went 4-0 (1.000) in the wild-card round

That brings us back to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. The 49ers have continued to win: they went 6-2-1 with Smith the starter; 5-2 with Kaepernick, highlighted by a 41-34 victory at New England. Conveniently, the 24-24 tie against the Rams was the game in which Smith suffered his concussion, opening the door for Kaepernick to take over the No. 1 job.

But the team's passing efficiency has in fact taken a step backward since Smith was benched.

• Smith: 70.2 percent, 8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating
• Kaepernick: 62.4 percent, 8.3 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT, 98.3 rating



LINK
This post was edited on 1/10 at 10:50 pm



dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4857 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick


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Stagg8
Rice Fan
Houston
Member since Jan 2005
11314 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
So how do Kaepernick's numers compare to Smith's second year in the league? It's simple really... you play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract. It doesn't hurt that Kaepernick's QBR is one of the top in the league in his 7 starts.


retooc
Georgia Fan
Wilmington, NC
Member since Sep 2012
2950 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
I think it probably will hurt them this year. Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners.


Sl4m
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2012
3402 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.


Tiger1242
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2011
23229 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
quote:

Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.



Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?


brg0320
LSU Fan
Greenville, NC
Member since May 2009
2683 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
I think Alex Smith is a better option at QB THIS YEAR than Colin Kaepernick. I guess if SF doesn't care about having the best guy for a chance at winning a Super Bowl this year, then they have made the correct choice.

With that being said, I don't think Alex Smith will succeed anywhere else. SF was the perfect fit for him once Harbaugh came in.


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dukke v
Duke Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
130032 posts
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re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
quote:

Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners


I will take thye Pack with K starting. I would take the Niners if Smith was STILL starting. I think Harbaugh made a HUGE mistake.The biggest advantadge that the niners have is that the Pack CAN'T run the ball.


Rockyn
LSU Fan
Tampa Bay
Member since Sep 2008
6914 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
There is no way of knowing if it's the right decision or not. If the Niners lose Saturday under Kaepernick there's no guarantee Smith does any better. There is no point to second guessing.

All I know is in last year's NFCCG I watched the Niners offense go 1/13 on 3rd down and fall short after ample possessions to take control of the game.

So long as it's not inherently stupid (and this decision isn't) fortune often favors the bold.

Image: http://static.nfl.com/static/content/photo/2010/02/08/09000d5d8164c6cb.jpeg
This post was edited on 1/10 at 8:27 pm


RLDSC FAN
Southern Cal Fan
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
16675 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB


tigerpimpbot
LA-Monroe Fan
The 561
Member since Nov 2011
33244 posts
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re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
49ers scored 17 points last year at home in the NFC championship game.


TT9
Texas Tech Fan
Global Warming
Member since Sep 2008
53039 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
They might get 17 Saturday night. Packers will roll.


Draconian Sanctions
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2011 SECr Hall of Flame Inductee
Member since Oct 2008
43622 posts
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re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
quote:

It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB


Yeah it's pretty hilarious


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St Augustine
New Orleans Saints Fan
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
43062 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Yeah but It also seemed that Smith was playing even better this year. They were still just a couple of big frick ups from the SB


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Chicken
USA Fan
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
8142 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Can you not paste so much of that article? 2-3 paragraphs max...thanks


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Dr RC
Texas A&M Fan
Dallas
Member since Aug 2011
17820 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
quote:

Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?


thats exactly how I'd feel if I was a Niners fan. I really thought Smith had taken a great step forward this year.

Not to mention the move by Harbaugh will probably cause players to hide injuries for fear of losing their jobs.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 1:58 am


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Sophandros
Tulane Fan
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45170 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Calling Cold Hard Football Facts statistical analysis is quite a reach. I'll leave it at for now.


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tidalmouse
Whatsamatta U.
Member since Jan 2009
14538 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
quote:

You play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract


^^^ This.Harbaugh's no dummy.He rolling the dice a little bit.But he's getting the best of both worlds right now.His Team is winning,and his Rookie QB is getting valuable experience.

Image: http://www.tigerdroppings.com/images/avatars/chicken2.gif

What up Chicken.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 6:22 am


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Willie Stroker
LSU Fan
Houston...ish
Member since Sep 2008
4545 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Interesting that the author of the article limited the higher passer rating comparison to only this season. He had the data to go back a few years and expand the sample size for the data to be more meaningful - but didn't.

Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.

I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.

He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.


Stagg8
Rice Fan
Houston
Member since Jan 2005
11314 posts

re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick


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