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SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:19 pm
quote:
We track what we call Correlation to Victory each week and each season at CHFF Insider. And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games. And they win more often as the games get bigger and more important.
Teams with a higher passer rating:
• went 209-46 (.820) in 2012
• are an incredible 47-5 (.904) since Week 15
• went 4-0 (1.000) in the wild-card round
That brings us back to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. The 49ers have continued to win: they went 6-2-1 with Smith the starter; 5-2 with Kaepernick, highlighted by a 41-34 victory at New England. Conveniently, the 24-24 tie against the Rams was the game in which Smith suffered his concussion, opening the door for Kaepernick to take over the No. 1 job.
But the team's passing efficiency has in fact taken a step backward since Smith was benched.
• Smith: 70.2 percent, 8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating
• Kaepernick: 62.4 percent, 8.3 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT, 98.3 rating
LINK
This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 10:50 pm
12
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:21 pm to Bench McElroy
:kige:
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:23 pm to Bench McElroy
So how do Kaepernick's numers compare to Smith's second year in the league? It's simple really... you play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract. It doesn't hurt that Kaepernick's QBR is one of the top in the league in his 7 starts.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:25 pm to Bench McElroy
I think it probably will hurt them this year. Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:28 pm to retooc
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:30 pm to Sl4m
quote:
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.
Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:32 pm to Stagg8
I think Alex Smith is a better option at QB THIS YEAR than Colin Kaepernick. I guess if SF doesn't care about having the best guy for a chance at winning a Super Bowl this year, then they have made the correct choice.
With that being said, I don't think Alex Smith will succeed anywhere else. SF was the perfect fit for him once Harbaugh came in.
With that being said, I don't think Alex Smith will succeed anywhere else. SF was the perfect fit for him once Harbaugh came in.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:37 pm to retooc
quote:
Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners
I will take thye Pack with K starting. I would take the Niners if Smith was STILL starting. I think Harbaugh made a HUGE mistake.The biggest advantadge that the niners have is that the Pack CAN'T run the ball.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:23 pm to dukke v
There is no way of knowing if it's the right decision or not. If the Niners lose Saturday under Kaepernick there's no guarantee Smith does any better. There is no point to second guessing.
All I know is in last year's NFCCG I watched the Niners offense go 1/13 on 3rd down and fall short after ample possessions to take control of the game.
So long as it's not inherently stupid (and this decision isn't) fortune often favors the bold.
All I know is in last year's NFCCG I watched the Niners offense go 1/13 on 3rd down and fall short after ample possessions to take control of the game.
So long as it's not inherently stupid (and this decision isn't) fortune often favors the bold.
This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:27 pm to RemouladeSawce
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB 
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:29 pm to RemouladeSawce
49ers scored 17 points last year at home in the NFC championship game.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:38 pm to tigerpimpbot
They might get 17 Saturday night. Packers will roll.
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:40 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB
Yeah it's pretty hilarious
Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:45 pm to RLDSC FAN
Yeah but It also seemed that Smith was playing even better this year. They were still just a couple of big frick ups from the SB
Posted on 1/10/13 at 10:43 pm to Bench McElroy
Can you not paste so much of that article? 2-3 paragraphs max...thanks
Posted on 1/11/13 at 1:56 am to Tiger1242
quote:
Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?
thats exactly how I'd feel if I was a Niners fan. I really thought Smith had taken a great step forward this year.
Not to mention the move by Harbaugh will probably cause players to hide injuries for fear of losing their jobs.
This post was edited on 1/11/13 at 1:58 am
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:50 am to Bench McElroy
Calling Cold Hard Football Facts statistical analysis is quite a reach. I'll leave it at for now.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 6:18 am to Stagg8
quote:
You play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract
^^^ This.Harbaugh's no dummy.He rolling the dice a little bit.But he's getting the best of both worlds right now.His Team is winning,and his Rookie QB is getting valuable experience.
What up Chicken.
This post was edited on 1/11/13 at 6:22 am
Posted on 1/11/13 at 8:08 am to Bench McElroy
Interesting that the author of the article limited the higher passer rating comparison to only this season. He had the data to go back a few years and expand the sample size for the data to be more meaningful - but didn't.
Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.
I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.
He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.
Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.
I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.
He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.
Posted on 1/12/13 at 10:21 pm to Bench McElroy
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