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Basketball Bet Thread 12/14
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:31 am
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:31 am
NBA:
Mavs -5
Bucks -3
TWolves -4
Jazz -1.5
23-19-2 YTD
NCAAB:
UCF -5
91-71-4 YTD
1/4 unit system plays:
Lakers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Celtics 1Q +1
Thunder 1Q -4
Thunder 2Q -3.5
Thunder 1H -7.5
Mavs -5
Bucks -3
TWolves -4
Jazz -1.5
23-19-2 YTD
NCAAB:
UCF -5
91-71-4 YTD
1/4 unit system plays:
Lakers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Celtics 1Q +1
Thunder 1Q -4
Thunder 2Q -3.5
Thunder 1H -7.5
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 5:05 pm
2
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:34 am to maclauer
do we fade the Magic again?
Wolves popped out at me
I like Celtics +2.5 @ Houston... Celtics are excellent in transition defense, pick and roll defense, and defending the 3... basically the 3 main sources of offense for Houston. Celtics are deep and move the ball well against a bad defense, and lin/harden have chemistry issues
I also like Nuggets -1.5 at home because they're a much different team there.. as much as you would think the Grizzlies are a good defensive rebounding team, they're not... doesn't bode well against the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA. think Iggy can do a decent job on Gay. Randolph should have a good game, but still like the Nuggies. Also, while the Grizz defense overall has been rock solid this year, their transition defense is a little shaky... and I think the home court can ignite that aspect of the Nuggets game.
Wolves popped out at me
I like Celtics +2.5 @ Houston... Celtics are excellent in transition defense, pick and roll defense, and defending the 3... basically the 3 main sources of offense for Houston. Celtics are deep and move the ball well against a bad defense, and lin/harden have chemistry issues
I also like Nuggets -1.5 at home because they're a much different team there.. as much as you would think the Grizzlies are a good defensive rebounding team, they're not... doesn't bode well against the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA. think Iggy can do a decent job on Gay. Randolph should have a good game, but still like the Nuggies. Also, while the Grizz defense overall has been rock solid this year, their transition defense is a little shaky... and I think the home court can ignite that aspect of the Nuggets game.
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 2:45 am
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:41 am to Ghazi
really feel like fading the Magic again. The best defensive rebounding team in the league atm is... the WARRIORS?! yes.. and the Magic simply can't score. I also don't think the Magic front court can expose a major weakness of the Warriors, which is their bigs suck arse at defending.
Love Curry's shot... the Warriors have really good chemistry. Magic seem to be fighting hard, somehow ranked 8th in defense despite a lack of anyone imposing defensively, but their lack of talent shows on the offensive end (ranked 29th).
Love Curry's shot... the Warriors have really good chemistry. Magic seem to be fighting hard, somehow ranked 8th in defense despite a lack of anyone imposing defensively, but their lack of talent shows on the offensive end (ranked 29th).
Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:48 am to Ghazi
quote:
do we fade the Magic again?
I'm laying off for now. Magic have played well against fast-paced, high-turnover teams like the Warriors. Magic won at GS pretty easily a little over a week ago.
quote:
Wolves popped out at me
Hornets can't score and face one of the better defenses in the NBA. Wolves have been solid on the road.
quote:
I also like Nuggets -1.5 at home because they're a much different team there
I'm torn on this one. I'm gonna watch the line movement tomorrow.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:07 am to maclauer
hhmm... had no idea Love was having such a bad shooting year, injury obviously bothering him.
Still... surely fading the lowly Hornets is the play here, right?!
Still... surely fading the lowly Hornets is the play here, right?!
Posted on 12/14/12 at 8:26 am to Ghazi
I really like the Hornets tonight.... Love had a pathetic shooting night last game they played, when i was keeping up with it he was like 3 for 17 from the field
Posted on 12/14/12 at 10:40 am to murphdaddy
Is there an easier bet than fading LSU without Hickey tonight at Boise? Look I love LSU but this is a poor spot for them.
The team struggled through a 13 point win over Chattanooga and Boise is no pushover. I am going to lay 3 Units on Boise ML and another Unit on the spread and 1H lines.
The team struggled through a 13 point win over Chattanooga and Boise is no pushover. I am going to lay 3 Units on Boise ML and another Unit on the spread and 1H lines.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 10:50 am to dgtiger3
quote:
dgtiger3
You inspired me to use more statistics in running my numbers. I spent way too much time making my own NBA match-up grid last night and also am looking into a system that identifies teams that perform better in certain halves/quarters. I think this could be a place to make money since quarter and half lines are just based on the full-game spread and not so much teams' actual performances in given quarters/halves.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 10:54 am to maclauer
I am a statistics bettor through and through, but no one can win on stats alone, and you seem to have pretty good gamblers intuition, which is the key to winning.
Trust me I have made so many spreadsheets and formulas over the years, you will want to hit your head against the wall because a matchup looks clear as day on paper, but there is just so much more going on that you can't measure in stats. OKC squeaking out a win against the Hornets the other night as an example.
Trust me I have made so many spreadsheets and formulas over the years, you will want to hit your head against the wall because a matchup looks clear as day on paper, but there is just so much more going on that you can't measure in stats. OKC squeaking out a win against the Hornets the other night as an example.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:00 am to dgtiger3
My picks on full-game lines have been OK. I have been looking for a way to improve performance on Q and H bets.
I'm never playing totals in basketball, though
I'm never playing totals in basketball, though
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:03 am to maclauer
Yeah the 1H lines have to be looked at if you want value in the NBA. Usually a superior team will dominate early and let off the gas in the second half, or go through the motions in the first half and storm back after halftime. I usually only bet favorites and home dogs 1H lines.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:18 am to dgtiger3
I'm still tinkering the system using relative MOV -- as opposed to aggregate MOV -- for each quarter and half, and working on throwing out differences that are statistically insignificant.
I'll report back what it spits out for tonight.
I'll report back what it spits out for tonight.
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 11:20 am
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:29 am to dgtiger3
What do you have for charlotte and UCF?
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:09 pm to memphstigers23
quote:
What do you have for charlotte and UCF?
Nothing valuable on either, my system loved Wichita, as did the public yesterday, and I bet Tennessee. Vegas has more information at hand than I do, when I see number significantly lower than it appears it should be, I stay away, or bet against myself.
System says UCF by 16, I would bet ODU, or not bet at all personally.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:13 pm to dgtiger3
Thanks, looking for a ML play 
And it has Boise by a wide margin or you just going with your gut?
And it has Boise by a wide margin or you just going with your gut?
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:19 pm to dgtiger3
I had to wrap up my capping early today, about to head to Biloxi on a bachelor party.
For such a large card the NBA card is
I don't see much value out there.
Only matchup I like is Orlando getting 4.5 at home against GS, should be a close game down to the wire, I'll take the home team.
The two late night home teams may need to be plays as well, PHX +1.5 and Denver -1
In college the only game I am concerned with is LSU-Boise.
If Hickey is out this is the biggest lock of the year. I already have 5 Units on the ML for Boise and 3 Units on Boise -3 1H, LSU is not road tested at all, their schedule has been weak, they struggled at home against UT-Chattanooga without Hickey on Tuesday. Boise State lost by 4 at Michigan State and won at Creighton by 13, I expect them to overwhelm LSU from the start.
For such a large card the NBA card is
I don't see much value out there.
Only matchup I like is Orlando getting 4.5 at home against GS, should be a close game down to the wire, I'll take the home team.
The two late night home teams may need to be plays as well, PHX +1.5 and Denver -1
In college the only game I am concerned with is LSU-Boise.
If Hickey is out this is the biggest lock of the year. I already have 5 Units on the ML for Boise and 3 Units on Boise -3 1H, LSU is not road tested at all, their schedule has been weak, they struggled at home against UT-Chattanooga without Hickey on Tuesday. Boise State lost by 4 at Michigan State and won at Creighton by 13, I expect them to overwhelm LSU from the start.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 12:31 pm to maclauer
I first made all the data relative then categorized them into distinct data points. My "stars" I assigned to each game are the number of data points apart the teams categorized relative values were. Obviously, the majority of match-ups are closer to the mean; therefore, one or two stars. Plays will only be made on three star and better plays. For now I will be betting them all in even units but will track its success to see if more stars means higher probability of hitting.
Right now I'm gonna play everything at 1/4 of a unit.
Here we go, the Mac partial-game system, Day 1:
5 star plays:
Thunder 1H -7.5
4 star plays:
Thunder 2Q -3.5
Kings 2H line if +6 or better
3 star plays:
Lakers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Celtics 1Q +1
Thunder 1Q -4
2 star leans:
76ers 2Q +1.5
Pacers 3Q -1.5
Magic 3Q +1
Pistons 3Q +2
TWolves 1Q -2
Hornets 4Q +1
Rockets 2Q -1
Kings 3Q +3.5
Kings 4Q +2.5
Jazz 1Q pk
Suns 2Q pk
Grizz 1H pk
Nuggets 2H line if pk or better
Right now I'm gonna play everything at 1/4 of a unit.
Here we go, the Mac partial-game system, Day 1:
5 star plays:
Thunder 1H -7.5
4 star plays:
Thunder 2Q -3.5
Kings 2H line if +6 or better
3 star plays:
Lakers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Celtics 1Q +1
Thunder 1Q -4
2 star leans:
76ers 2Q +1.5
Pacers 3Q -1.5
Magic 3Q +1
Pistons 3Q +2
TWolves 1Q -2
Hornets 4Q +1
Rockets 2Q -1
Kings 3Q +3.5
Kings 4Q +2.5
Jazz 1Q pk
Suns 2Q pk
Grizz 1H pk
Nuggets 2H line if pk or better
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:05 pm to maclauer
updated system plays and OP
BOL everyone
BOL everyone
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:10 pm to maclauer
Are you gonna play the 2H or 3Q lines no matter what?
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:25 pm to dgtiger3
I know hickey made the trip not positive if he will play though.
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