| Posted by | Message |
SouthOfSouth 
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
19590 posts
| LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:23 am)
LINK
With 20% of the season in the books, the Tigers are 6-0. I thought it was a perfect time for my first episode of Improved or Inflated?. In this article I will talk about statistics that LSU or individuals have improved and if it will continue through the season or if it is inflated due to sample size or competition.
LSU's RPI (NOW: 26, WAS: 86 ) - Inflated. LSU's RPI will not stay in the 20's but I will be shocked if the Tigers finish worse than 86. The Tigers are learning to play together and more wins are imminent. Their schedule looks like a good fit, and if they continue to improve, their RPI will follow suit. Prediction: 55th RPI.
LSU's Points per Game (NOW: 79.8, WAS: 65.4) - Improved. In the end, I am going to predict that LSU scores 75.4 points per game. Not only does this team have more players who can score with the additions of Morgan, Collins, Carmouche, Coleman, and Hammink but the Tigers uptempo style bodes well for an improved scoring number.
LSU's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 44.2, WAS: 36.9) - Inflated. LSU is top 10 in the country in rebounds, but I do not see it continuing at such a high pace. LSU hasn't played many "big" teams with players who can rumble down low. Once LSU gets into the meat of the SEC schedule I think this number falls back to earth. I'll predict around 39.5 per game, still better than last year but mostly due to more shots being taken rather than improved rebounding.
LSU's Steals per Game (NOW:13.2, WAS: 7.0) - Improved. LSU leads the nation with over 13 steals per game. I think LSU ends the year leading the nation around 12.5 steals per game. When LSU brings the heat, opponents turn it over. I don't think it stops even after the opponents improve. Anthony Hickey leads the nation, Malik Morgan is 6th in the nation in steals per possession, and Charles Carmouche is 16th in the nation in steals per possession. WOW.
LSU's Three Point Percentage (NOW: 37.8%, WAS: 32.6%) - Improved. LSU currently has 5 players shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, 3 of which are newcomers. LSU has more weapons outside and are less prone to shooting bad shots. This equates to a better percentage. I'll predict around 36.5% for the year, much above the 33.1% NCAA average.
Johnny O'Bryant's Rebounds per Game (NOW: 9.0, WAS: 6.8) - Improved. Johnny O'Bryant gets offensive and defensive rebounds at an alarming rate. He is top 100 in both offensive (15th) and defensive (90th) rebounds per shot. He blocks out better and has gained strength to hold them in a big pack. I think this number improves to almost 9.8 per game by the time the season ends.
Anthony Hickey's Steals per Game (NOW: 4.4, WAS: 2.1) - Improved. Anthony loves to sneak up on unsuspecting victims and pick their pocket. He likes to jump in front of passes. Most of all, the fast pace LSU runs forces opponents to make mistakes, and Hickey is there to capitalize. I project Hickey's average to end up around 3.9 per game, a vast improvement over the 2.1 of last season.
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%) - Improved. ADP has been this season's biggest surprise. He has been efficient in his growing minutes and has gained tons of confidence. While the 70.6% isn't really sustainable for Andrew I think he ends the season over 60% from the field. He doesn't take shots if he doesn't think he can hit it.
Agree? Disagree? Others?
|
| Back to top | Share on  |
TheDoc 
USA Fan
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
88266 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:25 am to SouthOfSouth)
quote:
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%) -
Never seen a player progress so quickly
|
| Back to top | |
crankbait
LSU Fan
Austin
Member since Feb 2008
7863 posts
 Online
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth)
quote:
Andrew Del Piero's Field Goal Percentage (NOW 70.6%, WAS: 16.7%)
lulz
seriously though, you should get paid for this stuff. nice write up
|
| Back to top | |
catholictigerfan
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2009
26539 posts
Online
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth)
let me see the stats when we get a few games through in SEC play then I'll know if this is improved or inflated.
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
This post was edited on 12/13 at 10:29 am
|
| Back to top | |
Iam4LSUnTN
LSU Fan
Brentwood, TN
Member since Dec 2011
256 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:27 am to SouthOfSouth)
Excellent analysis
|
| Back to top | |
BasilBogomil
Mercer Fan
Edinburgh, UK
Member since Dec 2012
472 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:28 am to SouthOfSouth)
Nice read. If Johnny Basketball comes back next year, LSU will have a NCAA tournament squad.
I think we are a bubble team right now, probably NIT bound. That is a helluva an improvement in just one year. 
|
| Back to top | |
ProjectP2294 
Indiana Fan
NOLA
Member since May 2007
24019 posts
Online
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:30 am to catholictigerfan)
quote:
let me see the stats when we get a few games through in SEC play then I'll know if this is improved or inflated.
I don't understand this comment. It's like you didn't get the point of the piece at all.
|
| Back to top | |
eetiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge via Eunice
Member since Mar 2006
896 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:33 am to BasilBogomil)
quote:
I think we are a bubble team right now, probably NIT bound. That is a helluva an improvement in just one year.
Have you seen the rest of the SEC records? I think if Hickey comes back and this team stays healthy they have a better chance than NIT.
The SEC is PATHETIC this year!!
|
| Back to top | |
SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
19590 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:37 am to catholictigerfan)
quote:
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
He sure is. Soon to be the most famous 7'3" Tuba player alive!
|
| Back to top | |
jr33
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
906 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:39 am to eetiger)
The SEC has gradually gotten worse since they started firing the coaches in the league who knew how to recruit talent. All these schools brought in the new regime of coaches and we now have a league that is awful. CJJ is kinda of from the old school of thinking and understands the type of talent it takes to compete in this league. It is also nice to see some real coaching going on, something these kids have not gotten under TJ. It is pretty obvious the improvement of JOB, Hickey and Stringer.
|
| Back to top | |
AlxTgr
LSU Fan
Kyre Banorg
Member since Oct 2003
27840 posts
Online
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:42 am to SouthOfSouth)
quote:
Agree
|
| Back to top | |
BasilBogomil
Mercer Fan
Edinburgh, UK
Member since Dec 2012
472 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:47 am to AlxTgr)
|
| Back to top | |
SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
19590 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 10:48 am to BasilBogomil)
quote:
BasilBogomil
|
| Back to top | |
SuperFanDan
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
360 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 11:19 am to catholictigerfan)
quote:
also is del piero the guy who played tuba in tiger band?
|
| Back to top | |
Summer of George
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
1681 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 12:19 pm to ProjectP2294)
quote:
I don't understand this comment. It's like you didn't get the point of the piece at all.
just what i was thinking
|
| Back to top | |
SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
19590 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 12:25 pm to Summer of George)
The Tigers just getting onto their plane headed to Boise from Denver International Airport.
Corban Collins
Anthony Hickey
This post was edited on 12/13 at 12:35 pm
|
| Back to top | |
EPORE
LSU Fan
BATON ROUGE
Member since Mar 2005
365 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 12:56 pm to SouthOfSouth)
This LSU basketball team is improved in the 2 most imprtant categories IMO:
1) Coaching
2) Attitude/ Intensity
I am very excited for the future of our hoops program under Coach JJ.
|
| Back to top | |
MRTigerFan 
Southeastern LA Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
726 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 12:56 pm to SouthOfSouth)
quote:
SouthOfSouth
Man I really appreciate your write-ups on the progress of the BBall team. You are single handidly increasing the interest for the LSU BBall team more than anyone not named Johnny Jones. Great Read. I agree with just about everything you said.
|
| Back to top | |
EPORE
LSU Fan
BATON ROUGE
Member since Mar 2005
365 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 12:57 pm to MRTigerFan)
quote:
quote:
SouthOfSouth
Man I really appreciate your write-ups on the progress of the BBall team. You are single handidly increasing the interest for the LSU BBall team more than anyone not named Johnny Jones. Great Read. I agree with just about everything you said.
This 100%
|
| Back to top | |
LSUGrad9295
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
10121 posts
| re: LSU Basketball: Improved or Inflated? (Posted on 12/13/12 at 1:00 pm to SouthOfSouth)
quote:
LSU's Points per Game (NOW: 79.8, WAS: 65.4) - Improved. In the end, I am going to predict that LSU scores 75.4
I think that final prediction is a bit high. I think LSU will average somewhere in the mid-upper 60's in league play. As mediocre as the SEC may be, the teams are still tougher than anyone we have played to date.
quote:
LSU's Steals per Game (NOW:13.2, WAS: 7.0) - Improved. LSU leads the nation with over 13 steals per game. I think LSU ends the year leading the nation around 12.5 steals per game
Prediction is a bit high (see above for reasoning) but we will still obliterate the 7.0 from last year.
I need to see how these next 3 games play out before I am ready to start making season long predictions.
|
| Back to top | |
