I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support | TigerDroppings.com

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KnoxvilleBerryTiger
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2006
3412 posts

I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support



the notion that the Republicans lost the presidency because Romney was not conservative enough? I heard this on the way home on talk radio tonight.

This could only be supported in 2 ways, both of which seem illogical.

1. He was not conservative enough, so more people voted for Obama instead.

2. He was not conservative enough, so less people went to the polls.

I understand that voter turn out was down, but are there data to support EITHER of these 2 points?

Is there another factor that escapes me?

If the Republicans were unable to beat the Democrats with Obama as the candidate, that seems ominous. It seems more concerning that we lost versus an opponent who was this bad, rather than losing because our candidate was not that great.




This post was edited on 11/20 at 8:04 pm



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Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
33135 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


This is how people have explained it on here before:

Romney: Big Government, Socially Conservative

Obama: Big Government, Socially Liberal

People chose the one who was socially liberal. As much as Republicans tried to make it about the economy, they could not escape the fact that they aren't conservatives.






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Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
11447 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

1. He was not conservative enough, so more people voted for Obama instead.

I think his being more of a moderate played into his favor vs. Obama.
quote:

2. He was not conservative enough, so less people went to the polls.
I would agree with evangelicals stayed home because of his faith and his moderate beliefs but had we had a more conservative candidate, we would have lost more of the moderate/center right votes to Obama. That part is a wash.

Obama had the ground game. We lost. Move on.






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stat19
Alabama Fan
Member since Feb 2011
12298 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


What Scruffy said


...and Obama stole the election.






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TN Bhoy
USA Fan
Sketty, Wales
Member since Apr 2010
45735 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:


Romney: Big Government, Socially Moderate

Obama: Big Government, Socially Liberal


FTFY






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constant cough
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
38524 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


Republicans lost for one reason and one reason alone. And that's Obamacare doesn't become implemented till after the election. If people would have been living under it since it was singed into law he wouldn't have won.





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RogerTheShrubber
LSU Fan
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
94193 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


I don't think people in general cared too much about the candidates, but lefties were more motivated than righties.





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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Currently asymptomatic
Member since Dec 2006
33426 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support
the notion that the Republicans lost the presidency because Romney was not conservative enough? I heard this on the way home on talk radio tonight.



Because, of the past 8 to 10 Presidential election cycles, when fairly conservative candidates run on the GOP ticket, they get a larger share of the vote, and generally win. The candidates with more moderate credentials (Ford, HW Bush, Dole, McCain and Romney) all lost (although HW Bush did win 1 first). Among the more moderates, depending on how they ran, the more moderate they appeared, the worse they did. Dole was pure moderate - 40% of the popular vote. McCain ("Maverick" image aside), Romney and Ford - all classic establishment guys, relatively moderate records, tried to talk the "conservative language", all got 46, 47, 48 percent of the vote.

Reagan got almost 51 against an incumbent and ~59 for re-election. HW got 53 1/2 and that was because Reagan voters weren't sold on his conservatism - he bailed on the "no new taxes", and they abandoned him for a slick-talking kid from Hope, AR, 4 years later.

W won twice, running on purely conservative issues.

As a corollary to that rule, the more liberal the Dems run, the worse they tended to do until Obama - who is the anomaly.

Nixon in 72 and Reagan in 84 just crushed the classically liberal McGovern and Mondale. One of the reasons HW Bush did fairly well in 88 is that Dukakis was very liberal as well. Clinton won twice, with reasonably moderate credentials. Likewise, Gore was considered moderate in 2000, though perhaps less so now. Kerry did well against W in 2004 (but ultimately lost) because popular opinion was turning against the war.

Had a true conservative run against Obama in 2008 - he probably still would have lost. Had a true conservative run in 2012, it would have been much closer, and he, perhaps, could have won. But, again, Obama is the anomaly - not Reagan or W.



This post was edited on 11/20 at 8:29 pm


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Toddy
Ole Miss Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
20818 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

I would agree with evangelicals stayed home because of his faith and his moderate beliefs but had we had a more conservative candidate, we would have lost more of the moderate/center right votes to Obama. That part is a wash.



Evangelicals did not stay home. Where are you getting this ?






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kingbob
LSU Fan
St. Amant, LA
Member since Nov 2010
20060 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


Romney wasn't conservative enough so more republicans stayed home and didn't vote at all. If his base had shown up he would have one in a landslide. However, his base hated Romney because he is a Massachusetts liberal.





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Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
11447 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

Had a true conservative run in 2012, it would have been much closer,
Don't see it.






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KnoxvilleBerryTiger
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2006
3412 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


I am beginning to question the utility of history in elections from here on out as the demographics are becoming (or have become) unlike any in our 200 plus year history.

quote:

Obama had the ground game. We lost. Move on.


You bring me to my point. If the pendulum has swung, and the candidate put forth by the Republican party really don't matter, then what are we to "move on" to?

Turns out "it's the economy stupid" may be old thinking if the electorate circumvents the economy via entitlements to live.

So long as this option remains, I don't see Republicans being able to move on.






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JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Oct 2012
8546 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

If the Democrats were unable to beat the Republicans with W as the candidate, that seems ominous.


.






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llfshoals
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2010
1401 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

quote:
Had a true conservative run in 2012, it would have been much closer,

Don't see it.


Cause you're not paying attention.

Owebama 2008 - 66,882,230 votes
Owebama 2012 - 62,611,250 votes

McCain 2008 - 58,343,671
Romney 2012 - 59,134,475

No conservative person I know was even remotely positive about McCain, and Romney got less than a million votes more.

If he hadn't picked Ryan, he'd probably have gotten less.







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Diamondawg
Mississippi St. Fan
Mississippi
Member since Oct 2006
11447 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

then what are we to "move on" to?
Changing the game. Changing the demographics. Coming up with an answer that would sell would be nice. Become more of a party that listens than dictates what the platform must be. Reducing the Republican debates to like one if not eliminate them altogether. We ate our young in the debates. The debates killed Romney with his comment trying to outdo Rick Perry on immigration. Basically, we stepped on our dick way too many times in this cluster.






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Sentrius
USA Fan
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
22311 posts

re: I welcome Allcomers, red and blue alike, How does one support


quote:

Obama had the ground game.


This.

The ground game was just infinitely and massively better for the Obama campaign. They never stopped campaigning even after they won in 2008.

I think Romney's campaign just simply trusted the ground game with the local republican party offices in all of the swing states. The Obama campaign brought their own to be used with the democrat party offices in said swing states. I think the Romney campaign got too overconfident after the first debate and just let loose. I also think sandy was a huge factor as well.

Bye the way, the following was posted by NC_Tigah the other day. I've been thinking about it for a while. It's echoes my suspicions.

quote:

Obama has and will be a genuinely harmful President.
He's been a ball and chain on business. He's set in place the ruin of American medicine. Could go on and on.

In the face of that BS, the GOP forwarded its weakest slate of Candidates perhaps ever. Out of his horrible field, Romney was the only candidate with any chance. He knew that. His campaign knew that. As unbelievable as it sounds, he and his campaign basically approached the election as an inevitable win. Very much like Dewey vs Truman.

Even in the 1st week of September trailing 7-9pts, they felt the election was in the bag. The Romney strategy was to tread water until the debates. Just not to make mistakes. Again the campaign was very cocky about Romney winning those Debates. When he crushed Obama in the first one, they lightened up.

By the 3rd debate they were back in the Dewey we've-got-this-in-the-bag mode. They decided to use an untried "high-tech" GOTV software program figuring it would push their electoral result from ~282 to >310. Then came Sandy. Then came the GOTV software crash early on election day.

The Romney group was so cocky, so sure of themselves that they never even considered a GOTV back up. When their software crashed, they left 30,000 GOP election day workers completely stranded. Probably cost 2%, +7-10 Congressional seats, and perhaps the election.

Someone like that does not deserve a second chance.


To win an election, you have to be "Batman paranoid" and prepare for any possible situation and utilize all available resources and come up with a backup plan for your backup plan. It's clear by now the Romney campaign wasn't.



This post was edited on 11/20 at 9:02 pm


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