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What percent chance Miles becomes the winningest coach in LSU history
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:09 am
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:09 am
I was reading dandy don this morning and I was surprised that Les has become the 2nd winningest coach in just 8 years here. His 83 wins is behind only McClendon at 137. If he keeps winning 10-11 games a year he could surpass coach mac in just 5 years. With the talent he has now and more coming in, I think its likely he will put the career wins record where no one will ever challenge it.
I say 95% chance. Love me some Miles.
I say 95% chance. Love me some Miles.
22
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:10 am to Specktricity
100%
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:11 am to Specktricity
100%
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:11 am to Specktricity
LSU and Miles are married to each other. There's nobody else on the horizon for either of them...
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:12 am to Specktricity
Miles will almost certainly have the talent to put together 10 win teams over the next 4-5 years. He's had opportunities to go elsewhere and he clearly isn't interested.
I'll go as high as 90%
I'll go as high as 90%
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:13 am to ZereauxSum
95%
and we can only hope for 100%
and we can only hope for 100%
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:13 am to Specktricity
I'm not much of a college football historian, but has any team ever maintained a 10 win average for 13 years?
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:14 am to SpeckledTiger
Florida State finished in the top 5 for like 15 straight years under Bowden or something ridiculous like that.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:15 am to Specktricity
100% chance barring any health issues or scandals... and I highly doubt Les is doing anything shady. So keep praying for good health
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:16 am to Specktricity
Les is 59. Just depends on how long he wants to coach I think
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:16 am to SpeckledTiger
quote:
r I'm not much of a college football historian, but has any team ever maintained a 10 win average for 13 years?
FSU comes to mind. Probably ND or PSU at some point.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:16 am to SpeckledTiger
quote:
I'm not much of a college football historian, but has any team ever maintained a 10 win average for 13 years?
Probably not, but for decades teams only played 10-11 regular season games. Now teams routinely play 12-14.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:23 am to ZereauxSum
quote:
He's had opportunities to go elsewhere and he clearly isn't interested.
Yep, this is the key right here. He has no intention of going anywhere to chase egotistical dreams of being the best at every level. (cough saban cough) He knows what he has here. As long as he's got great coordinators to take care of the X's and O's. Miles can always provide the talent and motivation.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:28 am to AlexLSU
quote:
Florida State finished in the top 5 for like 15 straight years under Bowden or something ridiculous like that.
Yep. I'm sure they probably averaged almost 11 wins per year. It seems like they always went 11-1 or 10-2. Of course, their conference competition in that era consisted of a whole bunch of nobodies. Notice how they fell off when Miami and Va Tech joined the ACC.
For Miles to have this level of winning during this era of SEC football, especially when you consider that LSU's permanent East opponent has been the East's top program, is spectacular and unprecedented in LSU history. LSU has played the national champion every year since 2006, except 2007 when they won it themselves. And of course, in 2007, they beat the defending national champion.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:32 am to Stonewall Tiger
quote:
100%, unless he decides to retire early
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:33 am to Specktricity
100%
Posted on 11/14/12 at 10:51 am to Stonewall Tiger
quote:
Stonewall Tiger
Thread hijack but...who is that in your avatar?
Damn.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 11:21 am to Specktricity
quote:or 100
I say 95% chance. Love me some Miles.
Posted on 11/14/12 at 11:45 am to SpeckledTiger
Texas A&M under Coach Slocum -- averaged 10 wins per year.
Prior the advent of League Championship games --- seasons were shorter. 11 games + bowl, before that 10 games + bowl and before that even fewer and far fewer bowls in the mix.
8 wins in 10 games (.800 winning %) for example, equates to 10.4 wins/season now in a 13 game season 11.2 if you assume 14 games (12 + LCG + Bowl)
To answer your question regarding Miles.
I say he finishes this season with 86, needs 52 to break the record and accomplishes that during his 6th season from now.... his 14th at LSU, at age 65.
Theorethetically he could do it in 4 additional seasons .... with 14 wins per year --- 5 years assuming 11/13 each year (.846) but that's unrealistically high winning percentage --- so I'll go with YES 90%+ chance he stays around and breaks the record during his 6th season from now --- the 2018 season.
He many hang it up at that point - it'll depend on his "legacy" at LSU.
Just to check the math:
2012 = 11-2 - 86 total
2013 = 9-3 to 14-0 - 95 to 100 Total
Assume:
2014 = 10-2 - 105 to 110, theorethical max 114
2015 = 10-2 - 115 to 120, 128
2016 = 10-2 - 125 to 130 142
2017 = 10-2 - 135 to 140 156
That's what it would take for 5 more years, so yes, 6th year out from today is probably realistic, if he stays that long.
Prior the advent of League Championship games --- seasons were shorter. 11 games + bowl, before that 10 games + bowl and before that even fewer and far fewer bowls in the mix.
8 wins in 10 games (.800 winning %) for example, equates to 10.4 wins/season now in a 13 game season 11.2 if you assume 14 games (12 + LCG + Bowl)
To answer your question regarding Miles.
I say he finishes this season with 86, needs 52 to break the record and accomplishes that during his 6th season from now.... his 14th at LSU, at age 65.
Theorethetically he could do it in 4 additional seasons .... with 14 wins per year --- 5 years assuming 11/13 each year (.846) but that's unrealistically high winning percentage --- so I'll go with YES 90%+ chance he stays around and breaks the record during his 6th season from now --- the 2018 season.
He many hang it up at that point - it'll depend on his "legacy" at LSU.
Just to check the math:
2012 = 11-2 - 86 total
2013 = 9-3 to 14-0 - 95 to 100 Total
Assume:
2014 = 10-2 - 105 to 110, theorethical max 114
2015 = 10-2 - 115 to 120, 128
2016 = 10-2 - 125 to 130 142
2017 = 10-2 - 135 to 140 156
That's what it would take for 5 more years, so yes, 6th year out from today is probably realistic, if he stays that long.
This post was edited on 11/14/12 at 11:50 am
Posted on 11/14/12 at 12:04 pm to Specktricity
if he stays, he passes Mac without a doubt.
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