Stream of conscious before our game: Why we will play well.. and win.

We have tremendous talent in the trenches.

Yes, we have had some injuries at the OL, but they have plugged in three talented replacements that have helped LSU put up big rushing yards the previous two games as well as protect Mettenberger. Alabama is a stiff test for this OL, but they will perform better than most expect.

Our defense is one of the most talented groups in the nation not named Alabama. The DL is still rugged with two DEs who are both projected to go Top 10 next year and 4-5 interior DTs who rotate throughout the game who are studs. At LB, Kevin Minter is a beast and is moving up the draft boards with his play this year. When he went out due to cramps vs UF, it showed with the two TD runs by Gilleslee. The other LBs are young and fast. The secondary is also stout, even with the loss of Claiborne and the dismissal of Mathieu. Eric Reid and Craig Lost are excellent at the safety positions and CBs are top tier SEC guys: Tharold Simon and Jalen Mills. Several young safeties and CBs have played significant important minutes to date.

The key to the game is this: Alabama will not have much success running the football. The game will be decided on McCarron's accuracy and timing and whether the DL can put consistent pressure on McCarron. The disruption of Alabama's passing game can be accomplished either by rerouting the Alabama WRs at the LOS or moving McCarron of his spot when he completes his drop. If LSU does neither, he will throw to spots to open WRs regardless of the coverage. A perfect throw/route will defeat perfect coverage 9 out of 10 times.

As far as schedule to date, name me one team that Alabama has played that is in the same zip code with last 3 teams LSU has played: @Florida, South Carolina and @Texas A&M.

Michigan? WKU? FAU? Ole Miss? @Arkansas? Mississippi State? @Tennessee? @Missouri?

Hell, Washington, who has already beaten two top 10 teams, is probably better than all of Alabama's schedule to date.

A little on Les: He is one of the most hard headed coaches in FBS, but he is a winner, which is why he is reluctant to adjust quickly. Our success running the option/outside at Alabama in the 2nd half in GOC1 buoyed his confidence in it to a fault.

We were in a similar position in 2010 coming off a loss vs Auburn. No one was giving us much of a chance and Les did a few different things that took Alabama by surprise. I expect him to coach similarly to that game than he has at anytime over the last 22 games.

On Mett: Mett is alright. His WRs early on hurt his confidence somewhat with the drops. He can't throw a bad INT like he did vs USCe that started a drive on the LSU 2. Protection is key. Avoid the quick pressure and he will be fine.

The other thing you will see a good bit is Ware under center/shotgun running some zone reads/options. I don't know if Les will call a deep throw from Ware off a play-fake, but it is possible since Ware was a HS QB and has thrown a couple of TDs in his career at LSU on trick plays. I don't know if this could be a key or not (if Ware throws passes with gloves on) but if he steps in at QB and he isn't wearing a glove one of his hands, be on the lookout for a pass.

Let's also look at the history between these two the last 6 matchups: Saban/Miles is 3-3 against each other with Miles winning in 2007, 2010 and 2011 with Saban winning in 2008, 2009 and the BCSNCG. The total score of the games is Alabama 133-110 (neqrly all of the adv was from 1-9) which over 6 games is 21-18 or so.

This game is in Baton Rouge and will be the first true test for this Alabama team and there will be 92K (me included) trying to affect this game from start to finish.

The game will be decided by close either way: 20-13 or so. The difference is whether or not McCarron handles the biggest road test of his young career. If he plays well, Alabama wins, if he plays just average or below, Alabama loses.

My thought is we affect McCarron all day and the passing game for Alabama is limited. Their running game is held in check and Les pulls a few "where was this play all year" plays and we win 24-13.