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NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:05 pm
9-2 with Houston pending tonight in Week 5.
I'll review the blacklisted spreadsheet (5-1 so far in W5) for week 6 and try to make adjustments based on injuries that may carry over to Week 6 like the injury to Cassel.
My spreadsheet's (18-11 YTD) early look at W6:
Atlanta -9.5
Baltimore -3.5
New England -4
San Francisco -6 (I hope this drops)
Green Bay +5.5
I'll review the blacklisted spreadsheet (5-1 so far in W5) for week 6 and try to make adjustments based on injuries that may carry over to Week 6 like the injury to Cassel.
My spreadsheet's (18-11 YTD) early look at W6:
Atlanta -9.5
Baltimore -3.5
New England -4
San Francisco -6 (I hope this drops)
Green Bay +5.5
This post was edited on 10/8/12 at 12:54 pm
4
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:13 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Atlanta -9.5
That will go over 10 before it closes.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:28 pm to LSUAlum2001
I got Atlanta at -8.5 and Baltimore -4 this week.
May start with that on NFL and continue onto CFB betting now.
May start with that on NFL and continue onto CFB betting now.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:29 pm to Brageous
Y'all think Atlanta will get over 10?
Posted on 10/8/12 at 12:49 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Atlanta is the only 3:1 ratio play on the NFL blacklisted spreadsheet in W6 so it makes this a big bet play.
Other leans from the blacklist spreadsheet:
Pittsburgh -5.5
Cincinnati -1
Miami -3.5
Houston -5.5
Denver +2.5
..waiting on lines in the NYJ/IND, TB/KC and WAS/MIN games.
Other leans from the blacklist spreadsheet:
Pittsburgh -5.5
Cincinnati -1
Miami -3.5
Houston -5.5
Denver +2.5
..waiting on lines in the NYJ/IND, TB/KC and WAS/MIN games.
This post was edited on 10/8/12 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 10/8/12 at 1:53 pm to LSUAlum2001
Blacklist sheet is 9-2 against the spread this week. Figured out how to apply the spreads (if Im doing it right)
Posted on 10/8/12 at 2:01 pm to LSUAlum2001
Baltimore has three consecutive weeks of winning the game, but losing ATS. The lines were good every week.
-2.5 vs New England
-12.5 vs Cleveland
-4.5 vs Kansas City
Of course there is no method to any of this madness, but I'm fading Baltimore TFN.
-2.5 vs New England
-12.5 vs Cleveland
-4.5 vs Kansas City
Of course there is no method to any of this madness, but I'm fading Baltimore TFN.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 2:34 pm to Hogkiller10
quote:
Blacklist sheet is 9-2 against the spread this week. Figured out how to apply the spreads (if Im doing it right)
Ex of a lean for W5
Cincinnati Team Rating: 24.4 (23.4 and 1 point for Home)
Miami Team Rating: 24.2
Vegas Spread was CIN -3.5.
Spreadsheet said P.
Miami was a lean.
Ex of a 3:1 big bet for W5
Minnesota team rating: 29.55 (28.55 + 1 for home field)
Tennessee team rating: 10.1
Minnesota's team rating was ~3x Tennessee's.
Vegas line was -3.5 for Minnesota
Bet the house on Minnesota and they crushed Tennessee by 23.
This post was edited on 10/8/12 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 10/8/12 at 2:47 pm to LSUAlum2001
Texans are a spreadsheet play for tonight?
Posted on 10/8/12 at 2:55 pm to ShaqTIGAH
quote:
Texans are a spreadsheet play for tonight?
Yes.
The other two 3:1 ratio games rolled to easy covers: Chicago and Minnesota.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 2:56 pm to LSUAlum2001
How do you tell as far as the spread goes? How many points they should give? Etc, etc ..
Posted on 10/8/12 at 3:07 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
How do you tell as far as the spread goes? How many points they should give? Etc, etc ..
Based on the team total ratings.
Houston team total rating: 37.78
NY Jets team total rating: 13.6 (with +1 for home added in)
The difference is 24. You can usually use this a guide to the score.
Houston 34
NY Jets 10
I'd use the difference ratings for favorites up to -14 or so.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:00 pm to LSUAlum2001
i'm on a 7pt teaser so far, (i hardly ever do teasers, but somebody mentioned it yesterday and i loved it), Hou -1/O33
gonna see where the line goes and play it by ear
gonna see where the line goes and play it by ear
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:04 pm to aVatiger
quote:
Hou -1/O33
Looks like a winner to me.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:07 pm to LSUAlum2001
think I got houston -2.5 and O34.5 in a teaser a while back
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:08 pm to LSUAlum2001
i should have grabbed -8 last night when i had the chance and buy it down to -7, i thought people would pound the Jets today though.. i was wrong
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:08 pm to aVatiger
I'm on that teaser as well. I mentioned it yesterday and locked it in for tonight.
Might take Texans in-game if Jets somehow score. Would love to get it at -7.
Might take Texans in-game if Jets somehow score. Would love to get it at -7.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:19 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Might take Texans in-game if Jets somehow score
I don't see how: Holmes, Keller, & Hill are all out.
I'd take -9 now. Once Houston scores 1st, it'll never drop below -13 in game.
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:22 pm to LSUAlum2001
Didn't know Hill was out. There is approximately zero offense left for Jets 
Posted on 10/8/12 at 4:23 pm to LSUAlum2001
you just talked me into -9
i might make this a *10 night
i might make this a *10 night
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