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re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:38 pm to bobbyray21
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:38 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Look at Bill Connelly's S&P rankings on football outsiders. He breaks turnovers down into the flukey variety (fumbles) vs. the possibly repeatable variety (shitty QB who throws to the other team) and takes this into account in his rankings.
Basically his rankings are meant to decrease the huge effect that turnovers have in dictating the outcome of the game, and thus be more predictive by looking at the things that tend to have a strong predictive value (e.g. explosiveness) vs. events that are mostly random (fumbles) and thus have no predictive value.
He's worth reading.
Yeah I'm on that site almost daily. His numbers and reasoning is very similar to some of what I am doing. I just like to emphasize more on a Team A vs Team B and the adverse effects they have on each other.
2
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:38 pm to dgtiger3
Ha!
It would be par for the course. Any job I've taken from the time I was 16, I've sucked terribly at initially, but wound up being a stellar employee long term.
Hopefully my sports betting will follow this trend.
It would be par for the course. Any job I've taken from the time I was 16, I've sucked terribly at initially, but wound up being a stellar employee long term.
Hopefully my sports betting will follow this trend.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:40 pm to bobbyray21
But, honestly, I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful. Ten different projection systems will give you ten different -- and sometimes wildly varying -- predicted scores.
I just saw another computer projection that had the score as 38-34 Navy.
Computer algorithms lack context, and so their utility is limited.
I just saw another computer projection that had the score as 38-34 Navy.
Computer algorithms lack context, and so their utility is limited.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:42 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
Yeah I'm on that site almost daily. His numbers and reasoning is very similar to some of what I am doing. I just like to emphasize more on a Team A vs Team B and the adverse effects they have on each other.
Cool. Yeah, I like his approach.
So you're saying that your system is better able to account for team by team strengths and weaknesses?
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:50 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful.
says the guy who claims sharps are not "sharp."
just because you do not understand quantitative methodology, does not mean its useless; ppl out there are making a living off their betting systems.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 3:54 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
But, honestly, I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful. Ten different projection systems will give you ten different -- and sometimes wildly varying -- predicted scores.
I just saw another computer projection that had the score as 38-34 Navy.
Computer algorithms lack context, and so their utility is limited.
I agree, but I am just a stathead at heart. I've built everything I use now on what the eyes don't as easily see, because humans are biased and what you see with your eyes doesn't always paint an accurate picture. You can never rely on numbers alone, because if that were the case someone much smarter than me would already have the winning formula. I just like having hard data to back my picks.
I let the computers crunch all the numbers, and then I go to each matchup individually and add and subtract points on all the other "factors" that you can't gauge with numbers. It's not exact science but it is my numbers and I feel comfortable with them.
Because my system is so aggresive it is going to be wildly wrong about 20% of the time, but on those games where the "intangibles" don't greatly effect the game, I think I can find value.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 4:52 pm to dgtiger3
What does your system say about Kent St @ Army?
Posted on 10/12/12 at 4:58 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:'
What does your system say about Kent St @ Army?
Both teams will run for big chunks of yardage, Kent St. is about 10 points better on a neutral field but Army plays really well at home and in this spot I have Kent State winning 37-35.
No advantage on the line, a slight lean on the over.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:34 pm to TigerTatorTots
I'm 14 out of 24 this year with my only losing weekend coming last weekend (2/5) when I listened to someone other than myself.
This weeks bets:
Bama team over 32.5
Northwestern -3
Louisville -2.5
Rutgers -7
This weeks bets:
Bama team over 32.5
Northwestern -3
Louisville -2.5
Rutgers -7
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:37 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
So.....Navy?
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:38 pm to dgtiger3
Navy has swung from -1 to +1 on my site in the past 2 hours or so FWIW.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:45 pm to dgtiger3
Dri Archer of Kent State is the fastest man in college football.
open field = touchdown every time.
open field = touchdown every time.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:46 pm to shuke33
That being said, neither team is good at stopping the run.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:46 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:I was digging that too.
Bama team over 32.5
Bama hasn't been held under 33 all year. I don't see Mizzou being the 1st to do it.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:48 pm to Louie T
Money in on the under. I think I still like the over.
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:51 pm to BilJ
quote:
So.....Navy?
AMERICUH frick YEAH
Posted on 10/12/12 at 5:55 pm to dgtiger3
bol
Posted on 10/12/12 at 6:00 pm to rocket31
quote:
bol
Thanks rocket,
Did you ever post any of your plays for the weekend?
Posted on 10/12/12 at 6:07 pm to dgtiger3
Gotta get dressed up in a damn tux tonight for a formal. Better have TV's at this place.
Bring it home for us Navy!
Bring it home for us Navy!
Posted on 10/12/12 at 6:13 pm to bamafan425
I took Western Kentucky last night and I'll take Navy tonight to win with the betting crew 
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