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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 6 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:32 pm to wish i was tebow
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:32 pm to wish i was tebow
Betting thread getting real weird tonight.
Total on Texas WVU is dropping. Might try and wait it out. But if my man wiwt is jizzing on himself or tots over that line I'll jump on it.
Total on Texas WVU is dropping. Might try and wait it out. But if my man wiwt is jizzing on himself or tots over that line I'll jump on it.
1
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:39 pm to bamafan425
here is my shortened reason why
WV Avgs 51 ppg with the highest powered offense ever created while UT is avg 47 ppg. UT will be able to get their points on that terrible defense WV puts out on the field every week. UT has been getting 30 put up on them weekly by teams that arent nearly has powerful as WV not to mention the pace that they run at. I dont see how both these teams dont score 40+
if this game ends up 31-28 or something along those lines i probably wont bet the rest of the year
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:41 pm to bamafan425
9-4 on Saturday +410. (1 unit win = +100, 1 unit loss = -110)
17-8 on the college football season
(68%) +1240
13-5 on sides
4-3 on totals
Essentially I did some digging and researched boxscores and stats of underdogs that won outright or lost a close game that had a large spread over the last 5 seasons.
I found a few tendencies that the underdogs and favorites had and starting building a formula in excel to determine how vulnerable a favorite was and how "live" a dog was.
I then used a few websites and programs to retroactively plug in stats over random dates throughout the last few years and found that it was really accurate.
We combined this with some other advanced metrics that we have been tweaking for a few seasons and the results have been good so far.
The main goal was to bet on underdogs that we thought could/should win outright. We have had overwhelming success in that regard in our first two weeks.
Of our 13 wins, 9 were dogs that won outright.
Week 5
Oregon St. +2.5 won by 3
Cincinnati +6.5 won by 3
Kent St. +2.5 won by 2
Middle Tenn St +27.5 won by 21
Toledo +1.5 won by 20
Week 4
Rutgers +8.5 won by 9
Oregon St +7.5 won by 7
La Tech +3 won by 28
Ball St +8.5 won by 5
17-8 on the college football season
(68%) +1240
13-5 on sides
4-3 on totals
Essentially I did some digging and researched boxscores and stats of underdogs that won outright or lost a close game that had a large spread over the last 5 seasons.
I found a few tendencies that the underdogs and favorites had and starting building a formula in excel to determine how vulnerable a favorite was and how "live" a dog was.
I then used a few websites and programs to retroactively plug in stats over random dates throughout the last few years and found that it was really accurate.
We combined this with some other advanced metrics that we have been tweaking for a few seasons and the results have been good so far.
The main goal was to bet on underdogs that we thought could/should win outright. We have had overwhelming success in that regard in our first two weeks.
Of our 13 wins, 9 were dogs that won outright.
Week 5
Oregon St. +2.5 won by 3
Cincinnati +6.5 won by 3
Kent St. +2.5 won by 2
Middle Tenn St +27.5 won by 21
Toledo +1.5 won by 20
Week 4
Rutgers +8.5 won by 9
Oregon St +7.5 won by 7
La Tech +3 won by 28
Ball St +8.5 won by 5
This post was edited on 10/2/12 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:45 pm to dgtiger3
Sounds good. System seems strong.
Way above my head. Keep it up. And keep us posted on your plays.
Way above my head. Keep it up. And keep us posted on your plays.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:47 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:As long as I can keep bagging your g/f brah, def worth it
sometimes it fun to jizz all over yourself..... if you have a pretty lassie to lick it up for you
thats why i have Tots
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:49 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Sounds good. System seems strong.
Way above my head. Keep it up. And keep us posted on your plays.
Thanks, it's been a ton of fun so far this year.
The totals haven't been as strong as the sides but one of our four different systems we run each game through has been really strong on totals this year so I think we will be playing them a little harder (and hopefully better) this week.
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:52 pm to dgtiger3
Added Purdue +3. I don't want to miss out on the key number. I could see that dropping to 2.5 or 2
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:54 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
As long as I can keep bagging your g/f brah, def worth it
seems like a fair trade off
i guess im gonna ride the purdue trade
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:55 pm to wish i was tebow
We all jumping on the Purdue jizz train?
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:56 pm to bamafan425
Lotta jizz going around here 
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:57 pm to bamafan425
i guess so. i normally dont blindly follow anyone but this system seems to be legit so ill give it a go
I think my only plays will be small purdue small TAMU and large WV UT OVER
I think my only plays will be small purdue small TAMU and large WV UT OVER
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:57 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Lotta jizz going around here
its a party!! now if only we could get some ladies in this bitch
Posted on 10/2/12 at 11:58 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Added Purdue +3. I don't want to miss out on the key number. I could see that dropping to 2.5 or 2
I agree, the public could push the number up on the other hand, I really think if every joe bettor didn't know Denard Robinsons name that Purdue would be a small favorite here.
We haven't been releasing our "official" plays until Thursday or Friday because we can't get the numbers to the fourth system until later in the week, but Purdue passes the first two (and I think the most important two) with flying colors, so they will be a play regardless.
I really liked UTSA on Tuesday of last week and I was pissed when they went from +4.5 at NMSt to
-1.5 but it ended up not mattering anyway.
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:05 am to dgtiger3
Sounds like your wins have been regardless of the line, so might as well wait for your other two systems to approve.
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:09 am to bamafan425
quote:
Sounds like your wins have been regardless of the line, so might as well wait for your other two systems to approve.
Yeah but I'm a gambler by heart, I've seen too many bad loses on the wrong side of a number (Eagles would be the most recent example.). There will without a doubt be days where you need that extra 1 or 1.5. Which is why I buy the hook a lot more now than when I started.
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:11 am to dgtiger3
True. I think there is a healthy medium of worrying too much and not enough about numbers. I've been buying the hook a lot more lately as well. It's worth it to avoid a bad beat.
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:21 am to bamafan425
By the way you posting that Rice's QB was going to be out last Saturday gave me the confidence to put in a HUGE bet on the under in that game, it was already one of my favorite 3 bets of the week before I knew that big piece of information.
Thanks for the work
Thanks for the work
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:23 am to rocket31
quote:
hoping to get purdue at 3.5 or 4; that will be my first play
still waiting, am confident the public will move this line.
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:24 am to rocket31
YTD: 11-3-0; +17*
Play One: *½ Utah +14
Play Two: 3* Pitt -2.5
Play One: *½ Utah +14
Play Two: 3* Pitt -2.5
Posted on 10/3/12 at 12:26 am to dgtiger3
No problem. That was one of my favorite plays last week as well. I try and keep any key injuries posted on here since I'm working for the injury website.
I like Rice over this weekend.
I like Rice over this weekend.
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