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"Be fearful when others are greedy......

Posted on 6/4/12 at 9:48 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126921 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 9:48 am
...and be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

It's getting to be about that time.....


Posted by greenhead11
Member since Feb 2012
922 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:00 am to
Famous last words?

It's tough out there. The time is near, But im not being brave just yet...

What's your bull case for why this may be a good buying opportunity and in what?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126921 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:02 am to
It's been a while since the talking heads on CNBC have been this bearish. Hence, "others are fearful."

I believe when earnings are reported in the next earnings cycle, we will see some decent earnings growth.
Posted by Projectpat
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2011
10521 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:05 am to
2 months down and you think that applies? I don't think I've seen any of the regulars on this board post about being fearful (or many others that I normally discuss with), it's all "omigosh 10% pullback = I'm dumping my life savings into banks."
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126921 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:08 am to
Okay....
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:11 am to
quote:

I don't think I've seen any of the regulars on this board post about being fearful


Very poor population sample.
Posted by Projectpat
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2011
10521 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Very poor population sample.


Sorry I don't have the time to conduct a full blown study, I'm just saying I don't think some MSM pundits are a good basis either. I don't think that majority of the populous is fearful of the market going down further.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126921 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:19 am to
quote:

I don't think that majority of the populous is fearful of the market going down further.

The 10 year bond yield begs to differ.
Posted by ZereauxSum
Lot 23E
Member since Nov 2008
10176 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:24 am to
quote:

It's getting to be about that time.....


I dunno man. US job creation is dropping off, GDP in alot of developed countries is slowing, the EU is falling apart....

Maybe I just proved your point for you
Posted by greenhead11
Member since Feb 2012
922 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:35 am to
If the bond market is any indication of where the equity market is going I'd say the situation doesn't look pretty. I don't understand why anyone on earth would want to be buying US/German/Swiss/Aussie treasuries to name a few.

If Qe3 is implemented, we may see yields depressed to around current levels. There is a dichotomy in America.

Our government couldnt be any more irresponsible (well okay may be they could but we got some serious budgetary issues and a lot of uncertainty)

Corporate America is doing strong as ever, so much cash on the balance sheets, and valuations are average if not cheap.

Something has to give. We have a jobless recovery situation where we are the best house on a shite block and a housing market that is in limbo at best. Corporate America has done all it can do to sustain this recovery.

I'm sitting in dividend payers and on the sideline, Not putting any new money to work other than averaging down a few positions till I see a tangible catalyst or Secular opportunity
This post was edited on 6/4/12 at 10:38 am
Posted by Projectpat
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2011
10521 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:35 am to
I'd be interested to see where the inflows are really coming from by %, equities vs foreign bonds.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:47 am to
quote:

dunno man. US job creation is dropping off, GDP in alot of developed countries is slowing, the EU is falling apart....


The jobs report in May is about May. My son is a chemical engineer. His plant is bringing in a dozen new chem e's and they are coming in starting today. My husband works in an industry that gives him a very good look at economic activity. He told me 6 months ago that we were going into a slowdown. How are things now? Flat as a pancake, but we are not falling off a cliff.

The EU could come up with some announcement (it won't work) that will rip the markets. Another thing to look for is an early announcement surprise by the Supreme Court on Obamacare.

Ray Dalio wrote about the "beautiful deleveraging". Google it and read it. We are in a period of financial engineering and thus far, although it is painful for some, it could be a whole hell of a lot worse. I think the US deleveraging is truly elegant. For the individual investor, one has to try and figure out how to move in and out to profit.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 11:18 am to
quote:

Ray Dalio wrote about the "beautiful deleveraging".


I've seen you reference my boy Ray several times, do you have a news feed on him?
Posted by Tiger4
Member since Jan 2009
8761 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 5:28 pm to
This post was edited on 6/4/12 at 5:30 pm
Posted by Tiger4
Member since Jan 2009
8761 posts
Posted on 6/4/12 at 5:29 pm to


You post this once in a blue moon, it would be nice to see how often you are right as far as timing. Yes, I know you are not claiming to time the market.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126921 posts
Posted on 6/5/12 at 8:30 am to
quote:

it would be nice to see how often you are right as far as timing.


I'm right about it more than I'm wrong, but I am the first to admit I'm not always right. No one is, for that matter.

And I'm just invoking one of Buffett's general rules of investing. He's pretty good at investing but even he is wrong at times.
Posted by davesdawgs
Georgia - Class of '75
Member since Oct 2008
20307 posts
Posted on 6/5/12 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

"Be fearful when others are greedy......


To be honest, I'm pretty fearful right now. I don't see a happy ending for the worldwide debt crisis including our own. It just seems like the value of the collateral supporting the debt is insufficient and for instance if Greece and other countries in the European Union default on their debt then we could be looking at a huge domino effect. I would be interested in your opinion of this article: LINK
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