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The ATL Thread: We're In First Edition
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:43 am
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:43 am
Helluva sweep of the Cards, something I did not expect after our porous performance in Chicago. That's baseball for you. I'm slowly gaining confidence in this team, but the pitching is still concerning.
Bourn, Heyward, Prado, Uggla and Chipper have all been worth at least 1.0 wins above replacement. Freddie not far behind at .9.
We have 6 batters with an OPS+ over 100, and that's with Brian sucking (he's at 96). Jack Wilson is at -12. Not joking. Chipper has been our best offensive player.
That is all promising.
Bad news is, the pitching has been pretty miserable.
Only two starters with an ERA+ over 100. Remarkably, Brandon Beachy is at 233.
Minor is at 57 
Based on FIP/xFIP, Hudson and Delgado have been unlucky thus far. Minor too, but hard to be that much worse and his FIP isn't pretty (his xFIP is surprisingly low, but it's been a while since I've read up on the differences in the formulas).
Anyways, all in all, we've got a solid club, as we've all known. But there are still holes. In all likelihood, we're going to have to deal for pitching IMO. It's either grab someone or rely on Minor or JJ to get it together, or give Teheran a spin? None of those seem like "lead you to the playoffs" type of options, IMO.
Lineups later.
Bourn, Heyward, Prado, Uggla and Chipper have all been worth at least 1.0 wins above replacement. Freddie not far behind at .9.
We have 6 batters with an OPS+ over 100, and that's with Brian sucking (he's at 96). Jack Wilson is at -12. Not joking. Chipper has been our best offensive player.
That is all promising.
Bad news is, the pitching has been pretty miserable.
Only two starters with an ERA+ over 100. Remarkably, Brandon Beachy is at 233.
Minor is at 57 Based on FIP/xFIP, Hudson and Delgado have been unlucky thus far. Minor too, but hard to be that much worse and his FIP isn't pretty (his xFIP is surprisingly low, but it's been a while since I've read up on the differences in the formulas).
Anyways, all in all, we've got a solid club, as we've all known. But there are still holes. In all likelihood, we're going to have to deal for pitching IMO. It's either grab someone or rely on Minor or JJ to get it together, or give Teheran a spin? None of those seem like "lead you to the playoffs" type of options, IMO.
Lineups later.
9
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:52 am to OBUDan
Pitching Matchups for the series:
Tonight (6:10) - Homer Bailey (4.93 ERA) vs Delgado (4.54 ERA)
Tomorrow (6:10 on MLB Network) - Johnny Cueto (1.12 ERA) vs Huddy (4.50 ERA)
Tonight (6:10) - Homer Bailey (4.93 ERA) vs Delgado (4.54 ERA)
Tomorrow (6:10 on MLB Network) - Johnny Cueto (1.12 ERA) vs Huddy (4.50 ERA)
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:52 am to OBUDan
Gonna wait for swamps report on Julio since I haven't checked his stats in a while
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:53 am to OBUDan
Another bad start, maybe two, from Minor, and Jurrjens will probably be given one last chance.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:58 am to OBUDan
And other than Minor, who looked great for three innings, our starting pitching has looked much better since the start of the Cubs series.
Hanson 6 IP, 2 ER
Delgado 5.2 IP, 1 ER
Hudson 7 IP, 1 ER
Beachy 6 IP, 1 ER
Hanson 5 IP, 1 ER
Combined ERA of 1.52
Hopefully they will keep it up. The return of Huddy is going to be huge for the rotation.
Hanson 6 IP, 2 ER
Delgado 5.2 IP, 1 ER
Hudson 7 IP, 1 ER
Beachy 6 IP, 1 ER
Hanson 5 IP, 1 ER
Combined ERA of 1.52
Hopefully they will keep it up. The return of Huddy is going to be huge for the rotation.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:00 am to SwampDonks
quote:
Another bad start, maybe two, from Minor, and Jurrjens will probably be given one last chance.
Was thinking the same thing. I was pondering yesterday whether they'd go ahead and make that call, but I imagine they'll give Mike at least one more start.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:02 am to SwampDonks
I expect Huddy to be fine, so I'm not worried about him.
Hanson needs to get better, but he should.
Delgado/Minor/JJ are all a mixed bag. You can afford to have one guy like that in your rotation, 2 makes it risky...
Beachy will likely regress, but who knows. We haven't seen enough from his career. Maybe he's the new Pedro.
Hanson needs to get better, but he should.
Delgado/Minor/JJ are all a mixed bag. You can afford to have one guy like that in your rotation, 2 makes it risky...
Beachy will likely regress, but who knows. We haven't seen enough from his career. Maybe he's the new Pedro.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:05 am to OBUDan
We should sign Brad Penny.
Just kidding.
Just kidding.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:15 am to OBUDan
God I love me some Beachy
If I'm Wren, I'm signing him to a long term deal this offseason while we probably have extra money lying around.
As for Hanson, he'll be solid because he has good stuff, he just has to work so damn hard to be solid. At this point, you just hope he makes it through 5, and will be lucky to get 6.
If I'm Wren, I'm signing him to a long term deal this offseason while we probably have extra money lying around.
As for Hanson, he'll be solid because he has good stuff, he just has to work so damn hard to be solid. At this point, you just hope he makes it through 5, and will be lucky to get 6.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:29 am to SwampDonks
quote:
If I'm Wren, I'm signing him to a long term deal this offseason while we probably have extra money lying around.
Totally agree. He's amazing. And he seems to have ironed out the one kink, which was the enormous amount of HRs he was allowing. He's a monster.
quote:
As for Hanson, he'll be solid because he has good stuff, he just has to work so damn hard to be solid. At this point, you just hope he makes it through 5, and will be lucky to get 6.
Yeah, it's kinda sad.
I hope we give Medlen a shot at the rotation. I'd rather give him a spin than trying JJ again.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:32 am to SwampDonks
funny thing about Beachy is he wasn't all that spectacular in college, in NAIA no less
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:33 am to OBUDan
quote:
I hope we give Medlen a shot at the rotation.
THIS by a mile.
There is no reason not to.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:39 am to SwampDonks
quote:
Another bad start, maybe two, from Minor, and Jurrjens will probably be given one last chance.
God I hope they don't sour on Minor that quickly. I have a lot of confidence in him. I think he has just had a bad string of luck and will get his mojo back.
Dan, not sure if you went and checked, but xFIP uses league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% is avg depending on the year) while FIP just uses the pitchers HR total. Minor is a flyball pitcher, but his HR/FB ratio is going to come down significantly from the 16.3% it's sitting at now. Well, I hope it does anyways!
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:43 am to SwampDonks
Thank God other people are thinking they same thing as I have on Medlen. Dude was at the very least damn solid in the rotation when he went down a few years ago with injury. No reason not to with the struggles of Jurrjens, Minor, and Delgado.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:43 am to SwampDonks
quote:
God I love me some Beachy
If I'm Wren, I'm signing him to a long term deal this offseason while we probably have extra money lying around.
As for Hanson, he'll be solid because he has good stuff, he just has to work so damn hard to be solid. At this point, you just hope he makes it through 5, and will be lucky to get 6.
Beachy seems to have figured out that if you want to go deep into games you can't try to strike everyone out. He has done a much better job of throwing pitchers pitches in the strike zone that result in weak contact and easy outs. Hanson still hasn't had this epiphany.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:44 am to glb
quote:
Dan, not sure if you went and checked, but xFIP uses league-average home run to fly ball rate (~9-10% is avg depending on the year) while FIP just uses the pitchers HR total. Minor is a flyball pitcher, but his HR/FB ratio is going to come down significantly from the 16.3% it's sitting at now. Well, I hope it does anyways!
I didn't, but thanks. It had been a while since I had read into each.
His SIERA is only 3.43. So he has some advanced calculations suggesting he's due for a sharp rebound.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:45 am to Robot Santa
Watching Hanson pitch puts me to sleep. long innings that drag out, he looks like he'd rather be doing anything but pitching, etc.
It would be nice if he could get quicker outs and go longer than 5 innings
It would be nice if he could get quicker outs and go longer than 5 innings
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:46 am to SwampDonks
quote:
Hanson 6 IP, 2 ER
Delgado 5.2 IP, 1 ER
Hudson 7 IP, 1 ER
Beachy 6 IP, 1 ER
Hanson 5 IP, 1 ER
Gonna be another bad last couple months of the season if they continually put this much pressure on their bullpen.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:47 am to Pilot Tiger
I've never looked at them until you said something
In 2008, 13 games (3 starts), 27 IP, 26 hits, 7 BB, 34 K's, 6.33 ERA, 6 saves
Hit .296 in 162 at bats as a starting infielder.
In 2008, 13 games (3 starts), 27 IP, 26 hits, 7 BB, 34 K's, 6.33 ERA, 6 saves
Hit .296 in 162 at bats as a starting infielder.
Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:50 am to Rohan2Reed
quote:
Gonna be another bad last couple months of the season if they continually put this much pressure on their bullpen.
And yet neither O'Flaherty, Venters, or Kimbrel are in the top 30 of the NL in appearances.
O'Flaherty is tied for 31st
Venters is tied for 50th
Kimbrel is tied for 63rd
I think we'll be fine.
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